Sunrise 5:11 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 4:05 AM   Moonset 5:04 PM

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FXUS61 KCAR 051853 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 253 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A shortwave crosses the area tonight and Monday.Weak high pressure builds in late Monday night through Tuesday night. A frontal boundary stalls out to the south with waves of low pressure riding along it Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
An area of weak shortwave energy will cross into the region this evening and tonight. High-res models continue to do well with the progression of the rain showers on the front edge of the system. By the evening, the entire region will receive rain, though light with some embedded convection. With the warm airmass, onshore flow, and moist boundary layer, patchy fog will develop across the region. Due to the increased onshore flow earlier in the night, areas to possible dense fog will develop along the coast.

By Monday, the upper level ridge exits over the waters and a weak upper level trof moves in. This will help to quickly push the rest of the shortwave out of the region. High-res CAMS and QPF models show some lingering isolated showers Monday morning, but clearing by the afternoon with the clearing clouds. In addition, winds will shift to SW to W, becoming breezy by the afternoon. The 925-850mb model times show a strong influx of warm advection with the exiting system and approaching high pressure. Thus, temps are expected to be in the upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Cold front will be most of the way thru the CWA Monday night with skies clearing from north to south. Mins will remain above normal before colder air starts to take hold in the morning. Skies will slowly clear from north to south, though cannot rule out some stratocu developing Tuesday afternoon with nw flow. With mixing up to 800mb possible expect winds to 25-30mph likely to mix down in the afternoon. Temps during the day will be cooler than Monday, though still above seasonal norms.

A reinforcing shot of cold air looks to move in Tuesday night with secondary cold front clearing the coast around 09z Wednesday. Under mostly clear skies temps over the North Woods may be able to drop into the lower 30s though with pressure gradient increasing acrs the north with hipres building in winds should remain fairly well mixed overnight.

Sfc ridge crests over the region on Wednesday morning with area being under the influence of upper level zonal flow. Shortwave will be entering New England on Wednesday but timing and magnitude of wave varies with each model. GFS is much quicker and stronger with NAM the least aggressive. Compromise is the EC and CMC and because of this have introduced chc showers Wednesday afternoon acrs the southwest while pushing east and slightly north during the day. How far north measurable precip is able to get still remains up in the air given the magnitude of dry air associated with high pressure at the surface.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface low will be skirting south of the waters and Nova Scotia on Wednesday night as high pressure regains control over the area.
Showers look to continue over Downeast early Wednesday night but have kept showers at high chance given the uncertainty on northward movement of measurable rainfall. High pressure briefly regains control on Thursday before next wave digs into New England from the Great Lakes Thursday night.

hat it does after that is pretty much anyone/s guess with EC and CMC developing a secondary low off of the coast which eventually takes over while inland low slowly fills on Friday. Latest 12z EC develops the secondary low further to the south than its prior run. The GFS shifts secondary development further south with more of an inverted trof setting up to our west. GFS ensemble falls more in line with its operational run while CMC ensemble follows its operational one.
Latest NBM gave likely-categorical pops from Thursday evening though the day on Saturday but have capped them at hichc pops with so much uncertainty still to be figured out. Yet another synoptic system will be moving up the eastern seaboard on Saturday but this may remain far enough offshore so as not to bring much in the way of showers to the area. Temperatures through the end of the week will run just below normal under cloudy skies and showers off and on at times.



AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...MVFR/IFR cigs with the approaching rain this evening, then vsby with the rain tonight.
By Monday, MVFR in the morning, then quickly clearing to VFR by the afternoon. S winds 5-10 kts tonight. WSW winds 5-10 kts Monday.

Downeast Terminals...MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby tonight in rain. Then IFR/LIFR in patchy to areas of fog through the rest of the night. By Monday, morning fog is expected with IFR/LIFR condition in the morning, then clearing to MVFR by the late morning. S winds 5-10 kts tonight. WSW winds 5-10 kts Monday.

SHORT TERM: Monday night-Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. NW 5-15kts with gusts to 25kts Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday-Wednesday Night...MVFR/IFR cigs possible at BGR and BHB in light showers. NE 5-15kts.

Thursday-Thursday night...VFR. E 5-15kts.

Friday...MVFR for Downeast terminals in light showers. E 10-15kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for tonight and Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels through Thursday. East winds will increase to marginal levels between 20-25kts late Thursday night into the day Friday. Seas will run between 1-3ft into Wednesday afternoon and increase to near 4ft over the outer waters on Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

St-Bernard-de-l'ile-
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Sun -- 02:56 AM EDT     5.10 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:51 AM EDT     0.90 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:14 PM EDT     5.23 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:16 PM EDT     0.79 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St-Bernard-de-l'ile-, Quebec, Tide feet

Cap Aux Oies
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Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT     4.89 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:18 AM EDT     0.68 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EDT     5.07 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM EDT     0.58 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cap Aux Oies, Quebec, Tide feet

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