Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Kent, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:27PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:58 AM EST (06:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:08PMMoonset 10:34AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Kent, ME
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location: 47.38, -70.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 240653
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
150 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track west of the area overnight. A secondary
low will form over the area Thursday and track northeast into
the maritimes Thursday night.

Near term through Thursday
135 am update... Winter weather advisories remain in effect across
much of the region, with the exception of the downeast coast,
overnight. The warm front showing signs of slowly edging north.

Temps have slowly warmed over the last 3 hrs W the coast into the
upper 30s and lower 40s. From bangor and interior downeast
northward, temps well below 32f W northern areas in the upper teens
and lower 20s. Freezing rain setting up in bangor and points east
while further n, the radar is showing a swath of precip lifting ne
into the millinocket and houlton region. Latest obs show this to be
sleet W some light snow. The latest rap soundings confirm this to be
so. North of that area, another batch of snow W sleet mixing in for
a time through about 3 am. As stated by the evening shift, warmer
air will expand north across the region overnight. Precipitation
will remain in the form of rain along the downeast coast but
interior downeast areas look like they will hang onto a wintry mix
for a while longer before transitioning to rain by daybreak.

However, it must be noted that even though temps will go above 32f,
cold ground will lead to prolonged icing. Further n, snow sleet
gradually changing to freezing and there could be a 3-4 hr period of
icing especially N of caribou-presque isle as indicated by the
latest rap and 00z nam. Decided to continue W the current threats
and leave the headlines as is for now.

Previous discussion...

low pressure will pass to the west of new england tonight. A
secondary low pressure system will develop over southwestern
new england Thursday then move northeastward across maine
Thursday afternoon. Warm air advection ahead of both of these
systems will cause snow to change to rain and mixed
precipitation from south to north across the region tonight. In
the north the change over is expected to occur after midnight. A
wintry mix will transition to rain across northern areas early
Thursday, with rain persisting across the remainder of the
region. Road surfaces are very cold and may remain below
freezing until Thursday morning. For snow accumulation have used
the snow ratio grids.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Sfc low wl mv into CWA Thu evng as pattern rmns active. Arctic bndry
wl mv thru drg the nighttime hrs with steady snow winding down aft
06z to snow showers as low mvs into the maritimes Fri mrng. Only
minor accums can be expected ovr the st. John vly on Thu night.

Parameters not pointing to any concern regarding snow squalls along
the bndry on thur night. As temps plummet ovrngt expect that any
standing water on roads wl freeze leading to a slick commute on fri
morning.

Active pattern rmns in place thru the end of the pd with a
brief weak system mvg thru the north on Fri aftn and Fri night.

Accums wl once again be < 1 inch north of the katahdin region
into Sat mrng. High pres builds in fm the west Sat aftn with
skies bcmg psunny. Highs wl be in the single digits acrs the
north and arnd 20 for downeast on sat.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
May see more snow dvlpng Sun mrng expanding ovr the CWA drg the day.

Not necessarily a true norlun type of event, tho 12z GFS is hinting
as such. Cdfnt wl mv thru Mon mrng with lingering snow showers on
mon. Hipres expected again on Tue with yet another system expected
to mv in fm the west on Tue aftn.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Near term: generally ifr lifr conditions are expected across
northern areas overnight through Thursday. Across downeast
areas, MVFR ifr conditions will lower to ifr lifr levels
overnight with similar conditions then persisting Thursday. Rain
is expected along the downeast coast overnight through
Thursday. A wintry mix across interior downeast and central
areas will transition to rain overnight. Across northern areas,
snow will transition to a wintry mix overnight then to rain
early Thursday. Low level wind shear will develop across
downeast areas later tonight then persist Thursday, extending to
khul Thursday morning.

Short term: ifr thur night improving toVFR in the evng at bgr
and bhb with gradual improvement across NRN terminals after
midnight.VFR then expected all terminals for a time on fri
before diminishing in the afternoon across the north late
afternoon and Fri night.VFR then expected all terminals on sat
under high pressure. MVFR ifr restrictions expected Sun and sun
night with improvement possible on Monday afternoon.

Marine
Near term: a storm warning remains in effect for the waters
Thursday. Winds will increase to gale levels overnight.

Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog overnight into
Thursday. A strong low level jet is expected across the waters
on Thursday. Will use the NAM to initialize winds. A strong
southerly fetch is expected to develop across the gulf of maine
on Wednesday into Thursday with wave heights building to around
20 feet 10-11 seconds late Thursday. The fetch will be broken up
by the wind shift into the southwest Thursday evening with wave
heights subsiding Thursday night into Friday. Total water
level: the estofs storm surge is greater then the etss in
southerly flow on Thursday. Will favor the higher estofs (+1.25
feet in bay areas) however a southwesterly wind direction would
favor a lower surge number due to the coriolis component. Will
keep the base tide anomaly at +0.50 0.040 feet for Thursday.

Will keep close eye on surface wind speeds Thursday morning as
high tide approaches.

Short term: wind drop to gale conditions thur night with sca
level winds lingering into Fri morning. Seas remain above 10
feet into Fri morning, remaining above SCA levels into the day
on sat. Winds diminish as high pressure builds in Sat morning.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong southerly winds are expected Thursday afternoon into the
early evening. High tide is around 12:45 pm and the astronomical
tide is near the highest levels of the month. Storm surge models
indicate that the maximum surge will occur later in the
afternoon. In addition the largest waves are not expected until
late afternoon and early evening. Therefore only minimum tidal
flooding and overtopping is expected at this time. We will
therefore issue a coastal flood statement.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
mez001>006-010.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for mez011-
015>017-031-032.

Wind advisory from 9 am this morning to 8 pm est this evening
for mez016-017-029-030.

Marine... Storm warning from 9 am this morning to 8 pm est this evening
for anz050>052.

Near term... Hewitt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME67 mi1.7 hrsVar 4 mi20°F16°F85%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from 40B (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm33355S7
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Tide / Current Tables for Traverse St-Roch, Quebec
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Traverse St-Roch
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Thu -- 12:05 AM EST     3.39 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EST     8.12 meters High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:34 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:19 PM EST     3.72 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:27 PM EST     8.66 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.74.75.96.97.88.17.97.36.35.34.33.83.94.867.188.68.687.15.94.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cap Aux Oies, Quebec
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Cap Aux Oies
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Thu -- 05:55 AM EST     5.29 meters High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:34 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:59 AM EST     -0.00 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:11 PM EST     5.99 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.41.634.255.34.94.12.91.60.5-00.51.83.24.55.565.853.82.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.