Sunrise 4:53 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 3:16 PM   Moonset 3:00 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 180425 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1225 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A disturbance will approach from the west overnight, then cross the region Saturday. High pressure will move south across the region Sunday into early next week. High pressure builds south of the area through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Update...
At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador will ridge back across the region overnight with low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will approach from the west. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies north, mostly cloudy Downeast, overnight. Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50s across the forecast area. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures, clouds and shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
For Saturday, a disturbance to the south of the forecast area will bring a surge of moisture into the region, with PWATs Downeast surpassing 1 to 1.2 inches by late Saturday afternoon.
Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread across the Downeast region, brining another round of rainfall to the region late Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Across the north, showers will be less likely, though overcast skies will keep high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70. Downeast, rainfall and marine influence will keep high temperatures cooler in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Guidance, along with hires models, are continuing to advertise showers over Downeast Saturday evening as upr lvl disturbance interacts with nrn moisture field associated with sfc low approximately 400 miles south of Nova Scotia. Rain should be on the wane after daybreak. Ridge axis likely to take hold of CWA Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon as upr ridge builds in.
Ridge will begin to slowly flatten Monday morning with next chc for showers topping the ridge mid-late afternoon on Monday, mainly across the north.

Temps will be cool on Sunday over Downeast zones with extensive cloud cover and lingering showers. Locations over the north and west will be the warmest areas on Sunday and Monday, with Sunday expected to see temps rise to around 70 while Monday temps may approach 80 degrees by afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern during the extended remains unsettled with upper level ridge over the Gulf Coast extending up along the southeastern seaboard.
How far north s/waves can track on the northern periphery remains up in the air from model to model and from run to run. Northern stream remains active next week but what impact this has on CWA at still remains up in the air. Warmest days of the week look to be Tuesday and Wednesday, and possibly Thursday too depending on speed of front.

AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR across northern areas overnight through Saturday.
Across Downeast areas, VFR overnight into early Saturday afternoon. MVFR then possible Saturday afternoon with showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots overnight. East/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday night...MVFR over Downeast terminals in showers with VFR north in isold shower early. ENE around 5kts.

Sunday...MVFR Downeast early with VFR north. E around 5kts.

Sunday night...VFR. ENE 5kts Downeast, SE 5kts north.

Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR over Downeast terminals, with MVFR in showers over Aroostook terminals. S 5kts increasing to 5-15kts Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR over Downeast with MVFR possible across the north in showers. SW 5kts increasing to 5-15kts Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels overnight through Saturday. Patchy fog overnight into early Saturday. Showers, mostly during the afternoon, Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds will remain below small craft levels through the middle of next week. Seas will build to around 5ft Saturday night in northeasterly swell before diminishing Sunday afternoon. Seas remain between 2-4 feet through Tuesday night.
Patchy fog over the waters likely to reduce visibilities Saturday night into Sunday morning.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

St-Bernard-de-l'ile-
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:56 AM EDT     4.60 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:52 AM EDT     1.80 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:13 PM EDT     4.64 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     1.70 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St-Bernard-de-l'ile-, Quebec, Tide feet

Cap Aux Oies
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:20 AM EDT     4.36 meters High Tide
Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:26 AM EDT     1.56 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 01:39 PM EDT     4.52 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     1.42 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cap Aux Oies, Quebec, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


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