Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kent, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 4:28PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 2:22 AM PST (10:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:02AMMoonset 7:12PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 824 Pm Pst Mon Nov 20 2017
Tonight..Variable wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..NE wind to 10 kt becoming se in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Wed..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming variable. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..N wind to 10 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft.
PZZ100 824 Pm Pst Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A strong warm front will move north through the waters on Tuesday. Gale force winds are likely on the coast and at the west entrance ahead of the front, with small craft advisory strength winds elsewhere around the strait and in the northern inland waters. Another strong system will move across the waters on Thursday. A third system will arrive later Saturday or Sunday. Both of these systems will likely give gales to most of the waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kent, WA
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location: 47.39, -122.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 210549
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
920 pm pst Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis A strong warm front will bring periods of moderate to
heavy rain to western washington Tuesday and Tuesday night, with
the snow level rising above 8000 feet. A break between weather
systems on Wednesday will allow rain to diminish a little. Another
wet frontal system will reach the area Wednesday night and
thanksgiving day. After a short break in rain on Friday, the next
wet system will probably arrive Saturday.

Short term There is a break between systems tonight and the
convergence zone earlier this evening has dissipated. Radar shows
the leading edge of the next round of warm frontal rainfall reaching
the south central oregon coast. Brightest cloud tops are still well
offshore but the system has an extensive tap to warm moist air from
the tropical pacific. Satellite imagery has the look of an
significant atmospheric river type event. However, model rain
amounts still are not as impressive as one would expect. This might
be partly due to the more southerly component to the flow rather
than westerly which would produce much stronger orographic
enhancement along the west slopes of the cascades. See the hydro
discussion below for details on potential flooding and refer to the
latest flood bulletins for current flooding. Most models show a lull
in rainfall around Wednesday with moisture arriving with two systems
rather than one continuous stream of heavy rain. This will hopefully
help keep river flooding in the minor category.

The air mass will be quite warm and temperatures will be above
average Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Clouds should hinder high
temperatures somewhat but some mid upper 50s are likely and some
near 60 degree highs are possible, close to record highs.

Long term Previous discussion... The flow aloft will make a brief
shift to weaker to weaker W flow aloft on Friday, for a short mainly
dry period. Meanwhile, the large longwave upper level trough
offshore will be strengthening again, eventually re-establishing
moist SW flow aloft over W wa. An upper level shortwave trough
embedded in the SW flow aloft will produce another wet period on
Saturday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have this system, but the ecmwf
timing is a little slower. Both models also have a surface low
crossing W wa Monday morning or afternoon (ecmwf slower). The ecmwf
solution could be pretty windy but Monday is much too far out to
count much on model details. Kam

Aviation Westerly flow aloft will become southwesterly on
Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure over the region weakens and
moves east. A strengthening warm front extending from western
oregon westward to a 990 mb low centered near 42n 134w will lift
northward across western washington on Tuesday. Expect mid and
high level moisture late tonight to deepen early Tuesday and the
air mass will be stable. Low level northeasterly flow ahead of
the front combined with strengthening southerly flow aloft (south
35kt at 2000 ft) will give low level wind shear 14z Tuesday until
the warm front passes during the afternoon hours to most of the
terminals.

Vfr conditions tonight will lower to MVFR as precipitation
begins Tuesday morning. MVFR conditions with rather low ceilings
will continue behind the warm front through Tuesday evening.

However, rainfall rates and low level wind shear will decrease
from the south behind the warm front. Albrecht
ksea... ExpectVFR conditions through about 12z. Moisture and
southerly winds aloft will increase rapidly Tuesday morning and
continue until the warm front passes the terminal mid afternoon.

Expect increasing rain with CIGS 015-020. Low level winds will be
northeasterly Tuesday morning while southerly winds will increase
at 020 giving low level wind shear during the morning hours.

Behind the front, low level winds will become southeast to south
and precipitation will become lighter. Ceilings behind the front
will likely stay around 020. Albrecht

Marine A strengthening warm front extending westward from the
central oregon coast to a 990 mb low near 42n 134w will lift north
across the region on Tuesday. Expect strong offshore flow to
develop in advance of the warm front that will give gale force
winds to the west entrance to the strait of juan de fuca and to
the adjacent coastal waters. Small craft advisory conditions can
be expected in the central strait and around the east entrance in
advance of the warm front.

Behind the front, strong gale force southerly winds can be
expected over the coastal waters later Tuesday while winds
elsewhere weaken.

A second system will reach the waters around Thursday while a
third one will move through the waters Saturday or Sunday. Each of
the systems will provide gale force winds to some waters,
especially the coast, entrances to the strait, and the northern
inland waters. Albrecht

Hydrology The skokomish river at potlach in mason county fell
just below flood stage this evening. Some residual minor flooding is
still possible downstream the next couple hours. The flood warning
will likely be allowed to end at midnight as the river continues to
slowly fall. The white river shot up quickly due to water releases
but appears to have peaked around 5,000 CFS earlier this evening
which is shy of flood stage. River flows on the white river at r
street should fall through Tuesday before possibly rising above
flood stage Tuesday night.

The threat of flooding remains possible on several area rivers
running off the cascades from whatcom county south to lewis county
Tuesday night through Thursday. A couple of warm wet frontal systems
move across the area. The first and wettest system will impact the
area Tuesday and Tuesday night, also pushing the snow level up above
8000 feet Tuesday through Wednesday night. The second will reach the
area Wednesday night Thursday. Snow levels will lower to 6000-7000
feet on Thursday. The first system looks more significant.

Rainfall amounts on uw4km WRF still point rain amounts in the 2-5
inch range for the olympics with 2-4 inches over the cascades. The
coast may see a couple inches and the lowlands could get around an
inch except in the rain showed area northeast of the olympics. The
Wednesday night Thursday system will not be as wet, with 2 or 3
inches over the olympics, and close to the same in the cascades. A
flood watch remains in effect to address potential river flooding
from these systems. This does not look like a particularly widespread
flood event, but several rivers in the cascades and olympics could
still exceed flood stage the next 2-3 days. The skokomish will
almost certainly flood again by Tuesday night.

Landslides could also become a threat with the lowland rains Tuesday
and Tuesday night. The USGS landslide guidance shows one or two
stations near or just above the threshold of concern, and of course
the additional rain with that front will drive that higher.

Mercer kam

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Flood watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon
for all counties except san juan and kitsap. Refer to flood
bulletins for current river flooding.

Pz... Gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm pst Tuesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm-coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater
10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater out 10 nm-west entrance u.S. Waters strait of
juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm pst Tuesday for east
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland
waters including the san juan islands.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm pst Tuesday for central
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 11 mi52 min SSE 2.9 G 2.9
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 12 mi52 min 39°F 51°F1017.2 hPa
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 15 mi52 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 43°F 51°F1017.6 hPa
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 21 mi82 min ENE 6 G 6 42°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.8)38°F
46121 26 mi46 min 7.8 43°F 1016.9 hPa41°F
46120 27 mi46 min ESE 3.9 44°F 1016.9 hPa40°F

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seattle, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, WA4 mi29 minNNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F37°F93%1017.4 hPa
Renton Municipal Airport, WA8 mi29 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F37°F100%1017.6 hPa
Boeing Field - King County International Airport, WA10 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair38°F37°F97%1017.2 hPa
Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Airport, WA19 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair40°F39°F100%1016.8 hPa
Pierce County-Thun Field, WA20 mi27 minN 08.00 miFair34°F33°F100%1016.6 hPa
Tacoma / McChord Air Force Base, WA20 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair32°F32°F100%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from SEA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE6SW3SE5W5NW11NW3S7SW4CalmSW6SW9SW11SW9SW4CalmNE6E6E6E5E6E6N4N8
1 day agoSE3S4SE6SE8S4SE11SE10S9SW7S5S7SW10SW7SW3SW6S6S12S9S3CalmE5SE7SE6SE4
2 days agoS11S11S7S7S8S6SE6SE7S4SW43SW3W6CalmS3S5S6SE7SE7SE7SE9S4SE5SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Des Moines, Washington
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Des Moines
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Tue -- 12:08 AM PST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:27 AM PST     12.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:01 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:56 PM PST     6.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:35 PM PST     10.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-0.21.546.89.311.2121211.29.88.37.16.77.18.19.19.9109.27.75.73.51.3

Tide / Current Tables for Skagit Bay, 1 mile S of Goat Island, Washington Current
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Skagit Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:21 AM PST     1.95 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:28 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:08 AM PST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:02 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:25 AM PST     0.04 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:36 PM PST     1.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:36 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:03 PM PST     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:13 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:47 PM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.91.71.30.7-0.8-1.2-1.3-1.3-1-0.60.71.31.31.10.6-0.6-1-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.90.41.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.