Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vashon, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:30PM Monday November 19, 2018 7:33 AM PST (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:15PMMoonset 2:58AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 254 Am Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Today..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft. Patchy morning fog.
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog.
Tue..S wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Patchy morning fog.
Tue night and Wed..S wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 2 to 5 ft.
Fri..SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 2 to 5 ft.
PZZ100 254 Am Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..High pres over idaho with lower pres over the coastal waters will keep the flow mainly easterly through Tuesday. Expect a weakening cold front to approach from the W Tuesday night. This front will probably dissipate before reaching the coast late Wednesday. A stronger frontal system may impact the area the latter part of the workweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vashon, WA
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location: 47.4, -122.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 191103
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
300 am pst Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis High pressure aloft will maintain cool dry weather
through Tuesday. Patchy night and morning fog or freezing fog will
give way to afternoon sunshine with highs reaching into the low to
mid 50s. A series of low pressure systems will bring wet weather
beginning Wednesday and continuing through the weekend.

Short term A sharp upper ridge axis is right over western
washington this morning. Surface gradients are light offshore.

Satellite imagery shows a mass of low clouds well off the coast, as
well as areas of fog over the land, especially the southwest
interior. Today will be like the last couple of days, with sunny
weather after some morning fog. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s.

The freezing level in the mountains is around 10,000 feet.

The upper ridge will move east Tuesday, giving southerly flow aloft
over western washington, and allowing clouds from an approaching
weather system to leak into the area. Models have slowed this system
slightly, so most inland areas will probably still have partly sunny
skies Tuesday afternoon. The coast and olympics will become cloudy,
though. Any rain will hold off until Tuesday night. Highs will again
be in the low to mid 50s.

Rain will develop on the coast Tuesday night, then spread inland on
Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon rain is likely nearly everywhere,
and it should definitely be raining Wednesday night. This
system has to push through strong high pressure, so a low qpf
event is expected. Precipitation amounts will be several tenths of
an inch in the mountains, with perhaps half that over the lowlands.

Highs will be in the low 50s. The snow level will fall to 4000 feet
or so Wednesday night, but with the low qpf, there will probably be
only a few inches of snow in the passes. Burke

Long term Models have been consistent in showing another, wetter
system arriving Thursday, followed by an upper trough for showers
Friday. High temperatures will fall to around 50 on Thursday and
into the upper 40s on Friday. The snow level will fall to around
3000 feet on Friday. During the wettest period, about 18z Thursday
to 18z Friday, several inches of snow are likely in the passes--
possibly even advisory amounts.

Models diverge somewhat after Friday. The GFS brings another system
into the region Saturday, while the latest euro run builds a ridge
and is pretty dry both Saturday and Sunday. For now have disregarded
that solution and kept likely pops Saturday with chance pops Sunday.

Highs both days will be 45-50, with lows around 40--pretty close to
average for this time of year. Burke

Aviation Upper ridge axis over western washington this morning
will shift east of the cascades today with increasing south to
southwest flow aloft. The air mass remains dry and stable except for
some patchy low level moisture. Low level flow is still offshore,
but weaker than 24 hours ago. This has allowed some patchy fog to
develop. This should burn off by late morning, but will likely
redevelop again Tuesday morning.

Ksea...VFR. May see patchy shallow fog in the vicinity early this
morning. Surface winds light and variable becoming northerly 5 to 10
knots in the afternoon. 27

Marine High pressure over id with lower pressure over the wa
coastal waters will keep the flow mainly easterly through Tuesday.

Expect a weakening cold front to approach from the west Tuesday
night. This front will probably dissipate before reaching the coast
late Wednesday.

A stronger frontal system may impact the area the latter part of the
workweek. Confidence in the forecast beyond Wednesday was low
because of lack of consistency in and agreement between the weather
models. After collaboration with adjacent marine forecast offices,
we decided to stick with the stronger solution for now in regards to
wind speeds. However, we also chose to not bite off on the 20+ foot
waves being forecast for the central wa coastal waters on Friday.

There is a good chance that this will disappear in the next wave
model run or cycle.

Hydrology River flooding is unlikely over the next seven days.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 9 mi33 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 10 mi33 min 34°F 53°F1021.5 hPa (+0.0)
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 15 mi33 min S 1.9 G 2.9 39°F 53°F1020.9 hPa (+0.0)
46121 17 mi32 min 40°F 1021.1 hPa39°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 18 mi33 min N 6 G 7 43°F 1021.1 hPa (+0.0)41°F
46120 25 mi32 min NE 1.9 42°F 1020.2 hPa37°F

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seattle, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, WA8 mi40 minN 36.00 miPatches Fog35°F33°F93%1021.3 hPa
Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Airport, WA11 mi40 minN 00.25 miFog39°F37°F96%1021 hPa
Boeing Field - King County International Airport, WA12 mi40 minN 00.25 miFog33°F32°F96%1021 hPa
Renton Municipal Airport, WA14 mi40 minN 09.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F30°F85%1021.5 hPa
Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport, WA17 mi37 minN 00.25 miFreezing Fog26°F24°F92%1022.7 hPa
Tacoma / McChord Air Force Base, WA17 mi2.6 hrsN 00.63 miFog/Mist28°F28°F100%1021.6 hPa
Pierce County-Thun Field, WA22 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair28°F28°F100%1020.3 hPa
Fort Lewis / Gray U. S. Army Airfield, WA22 mi2.6 hrsN 010.00 miFair28°F28°F100%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from SEA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7N7N4N3CalmN4N4W6NW4N8N8N6N7N4N4N4CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmN3
1 day agoN12N9N12N8N11N13N12N11NE14N11N17N13N13NE11N12N8N9NE8N7N9NE11NE85N9
2 days agoN6N7N7N11N12N11N10N11N11N10N11N10N12N14N12N14N9N9NE10NE10N11NE17N11N12

Tide / Current Tables for Burton, Quartermaster Harbor (inside), Washington
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Burton
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Mon -- 02:14 AM PST     9.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:57 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:41 AM PST     4.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:53 PM PST     11.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:15 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:44 PM PST     1.95 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.48.69.18.98.26.95.64.74.55.26.68.410.211.511.911.31085.63.62.222.84.3

Tide / Current Tables for Skagit Bay, 1 mile S of Goat Island, Washington Current
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Skagit Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:01 AM PST     -0.06 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:28 AM PST     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:58 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:37 AM PST     0.05 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:06 AM PST     1.57 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:53 AM PST     -0.04 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:49 PM PST     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:15 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:30 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:44 PM PST     1.69 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.9-1.2-1.2-1-0.70.61.31.61.51.30.9-0.4-1.1-1.3-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.61.11.61.71.61.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.