Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 12:59 AM   Moonset 8:34 AM

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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 841 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Tonight - S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Tue - S wind to 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - NW wind to 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Wed - S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Wed night - S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Thu - SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming ne to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Thu night - SW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Fri - S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sat - NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 851 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A weak surface low will cross the area waters on Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region Tuesday and Wednesday before yet another low moves through the waters, with the associated cold front moving through the region late Wednesday into Thursday.

FXUS66 KSEW 300328 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 825 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cool upper level trough over Western Washington moving east Tuesday. Brief upper level ridge Tuesday night. Systems Wednesday night into Thursday and Friday night and Saturday could move south of the area. Another front arriving early next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Current IR satellite imagery showing some cooling cloud tops at the time of this writing, however radar trend continues to show any active cells waning in strength. While no lightning strikes currently showing, there were a handful of strikes in the Seattle metro area earlier in the evening, even resulting in a couple of rumbles of thunder here at the NWS office.

Scattered showers still out there over portions of W WA this evening and as the upper level trough continues to stretch eastward, that risk will remain throughout the night. That said, best chances for thunder are mainly in the rearview, with game over expected after 10 PM PDT tonight. A secondary upper level low within the trough will keep showers in the forecast during the overnight and into Tuesday morning.

Inherited forecast remains on track with no evening updates needed at this time. For forecast details, please refer to the Previous Discussion section below.

18

From Previous Discussion...Satellite imagery shows upper level trough over Western Washington this afternoon. Doppler radar has numerous showers with the highest concentration over the Cascades and the lowest along the coast. Temperatures at 4 pm/23z were in the lower to mid 50s.

Upper level trough remaining over Western Washington tonight. Very cold air aloft with 500 mb temperatures in the -30 to -32C range.
Lifted index values in the +2 to -2 range. With some afternoon sunshine temperatures have risen above the convective temperatures which are in the lower 50s. Have left a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for this evening. The thunderstorm threat will end quickly once the sun goes down. Scattered showers continuing overnight into Tuesday morning with the trough still in place. It will be another cool for the end of April morning Tuesday with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Upper level trough remaining over Western Washington Tuesday for a repeat of Monday's weather. Temperatures aloft slight warmer as the trough begins to move east in the afternoon. Have left the mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast Tuesday afternoon.
If the trough is a little slower to move east look for a chance of thunderstorms to get added to the Tuesday afternoon forecast.
Highs once again below normal, in the mid and upper 50s.

Trough moving off to the east Tuesday night with a weak upper level ridge moving over the area. Still a chance of showers Tuesday evening as the daytime heating comes to an end but by midnight the shower activity should be over. With the decreasing cloud cover the colder location early Wednesday morning will be near freezing. For the remainder of the area lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday looks to be the dry day of the short term with Western Washington in between systems. Upper level ridge will shift east during the day but the next system will just be crossing 130W at 00z Thursday. Temperatures aloft still a little cool but with some sunshine high temperatures "warming" to the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Models in good agreement with the next system tracking south of the area. The question is how far north with the rain associated with the system extend. Will keep pops in the chance category with likely pops along the coast. Increasing cloud cover will make lows a little warmer, in the lower to mid 40s.

System continuing to move southeast Thursday with a weak upper level trough over Western Washington. With the trough overhead will keep some chance pops in the forecast for most of the area.
Good chance the Northwest Interior and the San Juans are dry.
Highs Thursday near 60.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
From Previous Discussion...Model solutions remaining inconsistent for most of the extended period. There is a general agreement that a cold upper level low will develop offshore Friday night. The ECMWF tracks this low into Oregon Saturday, close enough for at least showers over Western Washington. The GFS track is further west which would limit the precipitation chances to the coast. The ECMWF keeps the low over Oregon Saturday night into Sunday while the GFS has the low well south of the area. Ensemble solutions mostly support the operational runs. There is better agreement with a splitting system arriving Sunday night into Monday. With the lack of consistency will have to go with chance pops for most of the extended period. Pops a little higher, in the likely category, with better agreement Monday.
Temperatures remaining below normal through the period with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 40s. Felton

AVIATION
An active Puget Sound Convergence Zone has maintained showers and isolated thunderstorms roughly along a KCLM- KPAE line extending eastward into the Cascades. This will remain in place into the overnight hours with scattered showers elsewhere.
Expect VFR to higher MVFR conditions this evening, with lower ceilings nearest to PSCZ. Again expect MVFR ceilings to develop through most of the Puget Sound terminals as well as along the coast overnight as showers taper and the air mass begins to stabilize.
Surface winds ease overnight as low moves inland and low-level flow turns northerly behind the low. Another round of showers and isolated lightning again possible early in the day Tuesday with predominately VFR ceilings areawide.

KSEA...Expect continued southerly surface winds and VFR ceilings with the lingering PSCZ activity remaining well north of the terminal. With the air mass stabilizing a bit overnight, expect a return to MVFR ceilings after 10z through the morning. Northerly surface winds likely to develop in the afternoon reaching 8-10 kt.

MARINE
Lingering gusty winds through the central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening, but winds already easing other than near stronger showers. May again see a low-end advisory strength push Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. A series of frontal systems will make their way into the region Wednesday night into Thursday followed by another one Friday night into Saturday.
Seas will build toward 10 feet later Tuesday with the next low moving into the waters, but then subside well below advisory levels by Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY
River flooding not expected in the next 7 days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes.

PZ...None.

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Des Moines
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Mon -- 01:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:45 AM PDT     7.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:45 AM PDT     9.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:34 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:36 PM PDT     -1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:31 PM PDT     11.58 feet High Tide
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Skagit Bay
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Mon -- 02:00 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:15 AM PDT     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Min Ebb
Mon -- 09:34 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:12 PM PDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:22 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM PDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:23 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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Skagit Bay, 1 mile N of Rocky Point, Washington Current, knots

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