Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belfair, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:49PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 8:03 PM PDT (03:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:52PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 252 Pm Pdt Tue May 21 2019
Tonight..NE wind 10 to 20 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft in the evening becoming less than 1 ft.
Wed..Light wind becoming N to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming variable after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri night..S wind 5 to 15 kt easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..Light wind becoming N 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..N wind to 10 kt becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 252 Pm Pdt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow will increase this evening as a surface low moves inland. High pressure over the ne pacific will maintain onshore flow through the rest of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belfair, WA
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location: 47.42, -122.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 212247
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
347 pm pdt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis A trough over oregon will continue south overnight,
bringing an end to residual showers tonight. Wednesday and
Thursday will be drier as a pacific ridge tries to build east.

Diurnal shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will be possible
across the mountains each afternoon. The next shortwave will dive
south from bc Friday, bringing a few extra showers to the area.

As it continues south through the weekend, could see another
mainly dry trend with showers confined to the higher terrain.

Short term tonight through Friday An afternoon analysis of
the water vapor satellite loop still depicts an expansive area of
cyclonic flow, essentially from SE alaska through the western us,
down the northern fringe of mexico and through the great plains.

Two notable shortwave troughs still exist within the broader
scale flow-one with a negative tilt across the southern plains
lifting into the central plains (this is producing another round
of severe weather across the lower and mid mississippi valley
region), and another extending from the southern oregon coast
into the great basin vicinity. The latter shortwave has been
responsible for the early morning shower activity as well as the
abundant cloud cover. Most of the morning shower activity has
dissipated, however, the N NW flow has allowed for some orographic
shower development across the olympics and cascades. These
showers will continue through the evening hours before loss of
daytime heating contributes to their demise. SPC mesoanalysis
reveals weak instability across the area, with the highest values
(still below 500 j kg) across the northern border. Although an
isolated strike is not impossible through sunset, most of the
activity will remain just showers. Most lowland locations will
remain dry for the remainder of the day, with peaks of sun
possible under mostly cloudy skies.

By Wednesday morning, the oregon shortwave will continue to dig
into southern california, while upstream plains shortwave meanders
slowly north across the central plains. These waves will take on
some fujiwara characteristics will reinforcing the longer wave
trough across the western two-thirds of the country. As this
occurs, a ridge across the pacific will try to build northeastward
into western washington. Clearer skies than the previous few days
can be expected across the lowlands with dry weather expected.

The mountains will again see the chance for afternoon showers, and
with better instability in place, a slightly better chance for
isolated lightning strikes thunder exists. This convective
activity will be diurnally driven so anticipate it will diminish
after sunset. A very similar weather pattern will carry through
Thursday, with a dry forecast for the lowlands and afternoon
showers and thunderstorms for the mountains. Temps will warm back
into the lower-mid 70s for the lowlands Wed and thurs.

By Friday the next shortwave will drop south from british
columbia. At this point in time it appears this system could bring
a chance for more widespread shower activity to the local area
compared to Wed and thurs. Will need to monitor thunder potential
across the higher terrain given cooler mid level temps
accompanying the low. Have kept a mention of showers for now,
mainly for puget sound eastward. Temps cool back into the mid-
upper 60s.

Kovacik

Long term Saturday through Tuesday As the shortwave from
british columbia continues south into northern california on
Saturday, it will become more amplified and again reinforce the
larger scale western us trough. It again appears convection should
be confined to the mountains on Saturday. Of course by Sunday we
begin to see noticeable discrepancy between deterministic ecmwf
and gfs. So after consulting ensemble data have leaned this
forecast more towards the ECMWF as consensus for now is for a
ridge to build in from the pacific as the california continues to
dig southward. This would argue for a drier forecast. This trend
could continue thru early next week.

Kovacik

Aviation An upper level low over the pac NW will slowly exit
south tonight. Moisture is wrapping west into western wa with
mainly isolated showers over the cascades. Ceilings are a mixed
bag with pockets MVFR conditions. Expect mostly dry weather on
Wednesday as weak high pressure moves in. 33
ksea... CIGS in the 2000-3000 ft range this evening, scattering
out. N wind to 10 kt, becoming light and variable 09-12z. 33

Marine Onshore flow will increase this evening as low pressure
shifts inland - small craft advisories are in effect. In
addition, seas over the coastal waters will build to 10-12 feet.

Winds through the strait of juan de fuca will ease late tonight.

High pressure over the the NE pacific will maintain onshore flow
through the remainder of the week. The outer coastal waters may
see N NW gales on Friday. 33

Hydrology The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed
until then.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Thursday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough bar until 11 pm pdt this evening
for grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Wednesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters
from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal
waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 1 am pdt Wednesday for central u.S.

Waters strait of juan de fuca-east entrance u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters including the
san juan islands-west entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan
de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46121 13 mi35 min 59°F 1009.7 hPa51°F
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 27 mi40 min WNW 5.1 G 5.1
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 28 mi40 min 60°F 51°F1010 hPa
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 30 mi64 min NNE 8 G 8.9 57°F 1009.7 hPa (+1.1)49°F
46120 36 mi35 min N 1.9 58°F 1008.8 hPa49°F
46125 37 mi35 min 5.8 55°F 1009.1 hPa48°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 48 mi40 min SW 4.1 G 7 61°F 51°F1010.5 hPa

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport, WA8 mi68 minENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F48°F65%1011.4 hPa
Shelton, Shelton Sanderson Field, WA19 mi71 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F48°F58%1008.7 hPa
Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Airport, WA20 mi71 minVar 310.00 miOvercast59°F46°F64%1009.8 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Lynch Cove Dock, Washington
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Lynch Cove Dock
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Tue -- 01:27 AM PDT     6.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:16 AM PDT     11.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:29 PM PDT     -1.93 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:49 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:53 PM PDT     12.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:52 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.86.977.89.110.31110.79.57.54.92.1-0.3-1.8-1.7-0.32.25.38.310.712.212.612.110.8

Tide / Current Tables for Colville Island, 1 miles SSE of, Washington Current
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Colville Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:19 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:59 AM PDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:50 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:45 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:17 AM PDT     -3.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:15 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:17 PM PDT     2.24 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:38 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.20.40.60.4-0.1-1-2.1-3.1-3.7-3.5-2.8-1.6-0.40.91.82.22.21.91.30.5-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.