Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Portland, ND
May 19, 2024 5:37 PM CDT (22:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 4:15 PM Moonset 3:02 AM |
Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 192055 AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 355 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible between 8 pm and Midnight in far southeast North Dakota. Hail to 1.5 inches is the primary threat.
- The probability for greater than 1 inch of rainfall is 50% Tuesday into Wednesday across parts of northwest and west central Minnesota.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis:
Southwest flow aloft will allow a notable upstream upper wave to move through the Dakotas out of MT/WY this afternoon and evening. This upper wave will bring showers and thunderstorms through our area, including the chance for strong to severe storms late afternoon into early evening within southeast North Dakota.
Overall, upper troughing lingers over south-central Canada through the rest of the week allowing several upper and mid level waves across the Dakotas and Minnesota. One strong, notable shortwave moves out of the Central Plains into Upper Midwest around Tuesday. The current track progged by most guidance of this wave brings center of low pressure through NE/IA/southern MN area, keeping more unstable, robust convection displaced from our area. Rather this places our area under the deformation zone- type rain shield of the wave, bringing high confidence in wetting rainfall to the region. There remains a 50% chance of widespread 1 inches of rainfall Tuesday to Wednesday, with up to 3 inches locally not out of the question should multiple and/or extended period of thunderstorms reside within the deformation zone/TROWAL.
Additional waves thereafter move through the region. Although spread within ensemble guidance increases in synoptic details, lowering confidence timing, placement, and magnitude of convection and rainfall amounts. Overall this pattern would support near average temperatures.
Isolated Severe Storm Potential Southeast ND:
This evening's approaching upper wave is helping pull higher low level moisture this afternoon northward into lee troughing/sfc low in western and Dakotas. Lee troughing and upper support from the wave aloft will help spark convection near the Missouri River from south-central ND through central SD by mid afternoon. All guidance brings this convection east in the form of clusters toward eastern Dakotas.
By the time this convection makes its way toward our area near and just after sunset, instability will be waning. This thought is reinforced by the lack of any instability over 500 J/kg in eastern ND as of 3 PM this afternoon. Some additional WAA ahead of the sfc low will help pull some weak instability to 1000 J/kg into southeast ND, but likely be elevated in height as a surface warm front is stalled near the SD/ND border. Regardless of the marginal instability, sufficiently strengthed shear in the cloud bearing layer will allow for organization of convection. Additionally, elevated instability over a stable surface layer will help push updraft depth deeper into the HGZ.
Thus there will remain the potential for hail up to the size of ping pong balls (1.5 inches) in convection that moves into southeast ND from the west. The window for strong to severe thunderstorms in this area is quite small, between 8-10 PM.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible elsewhere within the area this evening, however after 10 PM and away from southeast ND, the chance diminishes markedly based on the expectation of waning available instability.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are forecast through 00Z, followed by lowering ceilings in the MVFR to IFR categories between 00Z to 12Z. Most likely to be impacted with IFR ceilings is KBJI between 08-18Z, with a 20% chance of LIFR ceilings in the 08-15Z timeframe.
Virga can be anticipated this afternoon across the area before 00Z. The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases between 00Z-06Z. The chance for thunderstorms remains low enough to omit from TAFs for now, although sites like KFAR hold highest chance (40%) of seeing -TSRA between 03Z-05Z. Some storms may be strong bringing lightning and hail within southeast North Dakota within this timeframe.
Winds will be light under 12kt, shifting from the southwest to southeast, then turning variable after 06Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 355 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible between 8 pm and Midnight in far southeast North Dakota. Hail to 1.5 inches is the primary threat.
- The probability for greater than 1 inch of rainfall is 50% Tuesday into Wednesday across parts of northwest and west central Minnesota.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis:
Southwest flow aloft will allow a notable upstream upper wave to move through the Dakotas out of MT/WY this afternoon and evening. This upper wave will bring showers and thunderstorms through our area, including the chance for strong to severe storms late afternoon into early evening within southeast North Dakota.
Overall, upper troughing lingers over south-central Canada through the rest of the week allowing several upper and mid level waves across the Dakotas and Minnesota. One strong, notable shortwave moves out of the Central Plains into Upper Midwest around Tuesday. The current track progged by most guidance of this wave brings center of low pressure through NE/IA/southern MN area, keeping more unstable, robust convection displaced from our area. Rather this places our area under the deformation zone- type rain shield of the wave, bringing high confidence in wetting rainfall to the region. There remains a 50% chance of widespread 1 inches of rainfall Tuesday to Wednesday, with up to 3 inches locally not out of the question should multiple and/or extended period of thunderstorms reside within the deformation zone/TROWAL.
Additional waves thereafter move through the region. Although spread within ensemble guidance increases in synoptic details, lowering confidence timing, placement, and magnitude of convection and rainfall amounts. Overall this pattern would support near average temperatures.
Isolated Severe Storm Potential Southeast ND:
This evening's approaching upper wave is helping pull higher low level moisture this afternoon northward into lee troughing/sfc low in western and Dakotas. Lee troughing and upper support from the wave aloft will help spark convection near the Missouri River from south-central ND through central SD by mid afternoon. All guidance brings this convection east in the form of clusters toward eastern Dakotas.
By the time this convection makes its way toward our area near and just after sunset, instability will be waning. This thought is reinforced by the lack of any instability over 500 J/kg in eastern ND as of 3 PM this afternoon. Some additional WAA ahead of the sfc low will help pull some weak instability to 1000 J/kg into southeast ND, but likely be elevated in height as a surface warm front is stalled near the SD/ND border. Regardless of the marginal instability, sufficiently strengthed shear in the cloud bearing layer will allow for organization of convection. Additionally, elevated instability over a stable surface layer will help push updraft depth deeper into the HGZ.
Thus there will remain the potential for hail up to the size of ping pong balls (1.5 inches) in convection that moves into southeast ND from the west. The window for strong to severe thunderstorms in this area is quite small, between 8-10 PM.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible elsewhere within the area this evening, however after 10 PM and away from southeast ND, the chance diminishes markedly based on the expectation of waning available instability.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are forecast through 00Z, followed by lowering ceilings in the MVFR to IFR categories between 00Z to 12Z. Most likely to be impacted with IFR ceilings is KBJI between 08-18Z, with a 20% chance of LIFR ceilings in the 08-15Z timeframe.
Virga can be anticipated this afternoon across the area before 00Z. The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases between 00Z-06Z. The chance for thunderstorms remains low enough to omit from TAFs for now, although sites like KFAR hold highest chance (40%) of seeing -TSRA between 03Z-05Z. Some storms may be strong bringing lightning and hail within southeast North Dakota within this timeframe.
Winds will be light under 12kt, shifting from the southwest to southeast, then turning variable after 06Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Fargo, ND,
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