Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 11:35 AM   Moonset 1:46 AM

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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 240 Pm Pdt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Thu - S wind to 10 kt becoming sw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Thu night - SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Fri - S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - W wind to 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sat - S wind to 10 kt becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - NW wind to 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sun - Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 1 ft or less. Mon - Light wind becoming W to 10 kt. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 240 Pm Pdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Broad surface ridging will remain centered well offshore with low pressure inland will result in varying degrees of onshore flow for much of the forecast period. A frontal system Thursday will bring increased wind speeds to the area waters. High pressure well offshore looks to remain into early next week.

FXUS66 KSEW 152138 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 238 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains offshore of Washington, providing one more day of mostly clear skies and above average temperatures across Western Washington today. By Thursday, an upper level trough will dig down into the region from Canada. This will return a chance of showers for most of the outlook area Thursday. A cool and damp pattern is expected to persist from this weekend into next week, with below average temperatures and several chances for showers.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
One more mostly sunny day is panning out across the outlook area today. An upper level ridge/high pressured centered off the coast still remains through today. Satellite imagery shows some high cirrus across the entire area, with a few cumulus over the Cascades and Olympics. A cumulus cloud band remains off the coast, thanks to the northwest flow aloft and near the surface. Temperatures have climbed into upper 60s and low 70s in most of the lowlands this afternoon (helped by light winds and maximum daytime heating). This part of the forecast remains largely on track, and a few areas will likely peak into the mid 70s this afternoon.

By Thursday, an upper level trough swings around a low deep in northern Canada. This will dip a jet streak/vorticity max down into Washington for Thursday, as well as breaking down the high over the Pacific. Down at the surface, a cold front will swing through with this shortwave during the day. Due to limited moisture available with this front, precipitation is expected to remain limited with shower activity across the area. The heaviest of the showers are expected to be in the northern Cascades. QPF amounts there range from around a quarter to a half an inch, with just several hundredths in the lowlands. With the cooler air coming through, snow levels will drop to around 3500 feet Thursday afternoon. Additionally, the onshore flow behind the front may result in a convergence zone over western Snohomish/Skagit counties. Breezy southwest/west winds at 10 to 15 mph are possible post-front in the lowlands, with gusts to 20 mph possible.

The Thursday trough will depart the region Friday, leaving the remainder of the day dry with high temperatures only peaking in the low to mid 60s. Clouds will break up some for the afternoon.
Another shortwave trough appears to dip into Washington on Saturday. This will return the chance of showers (with best chance again being east of I-5 in the Cascades). NBM was giving a brief slight chance of thunder in the northern Cascades for the afternoon, with the cooler air aloft. Temperatures for Saturday slightly will be slightly cooler, with upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will diminish going into Friday/Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
There is better agreement now between the ensemble clusters and deterministic models for early next week. It appears the pattern will be influenced by cool and unsettled weather via a trough over the northwest. Flow will be northwesterly, which will keep temperatures at or below average for the first part of the week. Shower chances will be possible via several shortwaves first part of Sunday, and Monday through Wednesday. None of these days appear to be washouts at this point, with coverage being spotty and confined to primarily the mountains. The NBM again mentioned thunder for the northern Cascades on Monday.

HPR

AVIATION
Northwesterly flow aloft through Thursday morning with upper-level ridging aloft. Flow aloft will then shift more westerly by Thursday evening as a shortwave trough rounds the area.

VFR across western Washington as high clouds stream over. VFR conditions expected to remain in place for most terminals for the remainder of the day, however will see cigs gradually lower from west to east throughout the night in response to an upcoming system on Thursday. By 12z Thursday, stratus will be widespread across area terminals with MVFR in the cards. Can't rule out localized IFR and LIFR for terminals such as HQM. Some brief improvement to low-end VFR is possible into Thursday afternoon but rain showers and convergence zone activity is likely to hang around.

KSEA...VFR with high cirrus currently. But as mentioned, MVFR is possible going into early Thursday morning as stratus fills in around 09-12z. Rain showers and convergence zone activity is possible into Thursday also.

McMillian

MARINE
A round of SCA level winds expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca starting this afternoon and look to continue into Thursday as a front passes. A stronger push is expected to accompany an incoming frontal system Thursday night and Friday which may need yet another set of headlines. A SCA has also been issued for the coastal waters, associated with the aforementioned front Winds expected to ease for most areas, save perhaps the outer coastal waters this weekend into early next week.

Seas will hold around 4 to 6 ft through Thursday before increasing 8 to 12 ft from Friday into the weekend, reducing to 6 to 8 ft early next week.

McMillian

HYDROLOGY
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

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Harper
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Wed -- 12:22 AM PDT     11.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:45 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:49 AM PDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:53 AM PDT     6.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:32 AM PDT     7.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:27 PM PDT     1.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:41 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harper, Yukon Harbor, Washington, Tide feet

Skagit Bay
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Wed -- 12:16 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:45 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:49 AM PDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:36 AM PDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:23 AM PDT     -0.02 knots Min Ebb
Wed -- 12:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:43 PM PDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:33 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:41 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:43 PM PDT     0.67 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Skagit Bay, 1 mile N of Rocky Point, Washington Current, knots

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