Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Turtle Lake, MT
May 8, 2024 1:25 PM MDT (19:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 9:03 PM Moonrise 5:07 AM Moonset 9:27 PM |
FXUS65 KMSO 081716 AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1116 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024
DISCUSSION
Moisture previously encircling the primary low pressure center in eastern Montana is now gradually receding eastward as the system progresses eastward today. Radar forecasts indicate lingering showers persisting along the Divide of west- central and southwest Montana tonight, potentially bringing sporadic snow showers that could briefly impact mountain passes like MacDonald and Homestake.
Looking ahead, model clusters and ensemble forecasts are converging on the development of a modest Rex block/split flow pattern over the western U.S. by Thursday. In this scenario, the Northern Rockies will find themselves under the influence of a warm high pressure ridge, fostering a steady warming trend through the weekend. Expect valley highs across central Idaho and western Montana to range from the mid 70s to mid 80s during this period.
Confidence in this forecast is bolstered by the NBM v4.2, which projects an 80 percent probability for high temperatures below 4000 feet to exceed 80 degrees on Sunday.
However, as we head into early next week, the ensemble mean guidance suggests the high pressure ridge will begin to flatten, initiating a cooling trend. Yet, model clusters diverge significantly on the specifics of the weather pattern, introducing notable uncertainties in temperature and precipitation forecasts.
This variability translates to a wide spectrum of possibilities, ranging from continued warmth and dry conditions to a 40% chance of cooler, showery weather by Wednesday.
AVIATION
Moisture wrapping around a surface low over central Montana will continue to spread light valley rain showers across region, sporadically lowering ceilings at all aviation sites. The surface low will slowly move eastward, reducing showers across the Northern Rockies. Shallow fog may develop early tomorrow morning for KGPI, KMSO and KHRF, along with a low stratus deck.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1116 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024
DISCUSSION
Moisture previously encircling the primary low pressure center in eastern Montana is now gradually receding eastward as the system progresses eastward today. Radar forecasts indicate lingering showers persisting along the Divide of west- central and southwest Montana tonight, potentially bringing sporadic snow showers that could briefly impact mountain passes like MacDonald and Homestake.
Looking ahead, model clusters and ensemble forecasts are converging on the development of a modest Rex block/split flow pattern over the western U.S. by Thursday. In this scenario, the Northern Rockies will find themselves under the influence of a warm high pressure ridge, fostering a steady warming trend through the weekend. Expect valley highs across central Idaho and western Montana to range from the mid 70s to mid 80s during this period.
Confidence in this forecast is bolstered by the NBM v4.2, which projects an 80 percent probability for high temperatures below 4000 feet to exceed 80 degrees on Sunday.
However, as we head into early next week, the ensemble mean guidance suggests the high pressure ridge will begin to flatten, initiating a cooling trend. Yet, model clusters diverge significantly on the specifics of the weather pattern, introducing notable uncertainties in temperature and precipitation forecasts.
This variability translates to a wide spectrum of possibilities, ranging from continued warmth and dry conditions to a 40% chance of cooler, showery weather by Wednesday.
AVIATION
Moisture wrapping around a surface low over central Montana will continue to spread light valley rain showers across region, sporadically lowering ceilings at all aviation sites. The surface low will slowly move eastward, reducing showers across the Northern Rockies. Shallow fog may develop early tomorrow morning for KGPI, KMSO and KHRF, along with a low stratus deck.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.
Missoula, MT,
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