Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skykomish, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:28PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 8:45 PM PST (04:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:26PMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 217 Pm Pst Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening then rain likely after midnight.
Wed..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..N wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 217 Pm Pst Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak front will cross the area this evening into Wednesday with small craft advisory winds for most waters through early Wednesday. A second weak system will then clip the area on Thursday. Offshore flow will return this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skykomish, WA
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location: 47.78, -121.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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Fxus66 kotx 132342
afdotx
area forecast discussion
national weather service spokane wa
342 pm pst Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
A weak weather system may bring mixed precipitation late tonight
and Wednesday morning making for a locally slippery morning
commute period. Unsettled conditions with mainly mountain showers
will continue through Friday before a cold front from canada
dries out and cools down the region for the weekend.

Discussion
Tonight through Friday... An unsettled weather pattern will prevail
fro the next few days as a moist zonal flow develops over the
forecast area persisting into Friday before a cold front descends
out of canada and ushers in a wave of dry air and cooler
temperatures. Satellite this afternoon indicates an eroding ridge
over the northwest... With a deep and cool gulf of alaska trough
forcing the ridge axis eastward opening the door for an influx of
pacific moisture and a more progressive weather pattern.

The first manifestation of this pattern shift will occur tonight
and Wednesday as a short wave at the base of the gulf of alaska
trough currently visible off the coast of vancouver isle transits
the region more-or-less along the canadian border tonight. The
dynamic support embedded with this wave will be mainly found to
the north of the columbia basin over the northern mountains and in
british columbia. It is in these northern zones where the
potential for precipitation engenders the highest confidence. The
problem is this wave will bring a mid level warm front through
the region with a layer of above freezing air aloft and the
period of highest risk occurs during the early morning when the
cold sub inversion boundary layer is established in the valleys
and the basin. Any melted precipitation that falls into these
lower elevations has the potential to freeze as it drops into the
cold near surface layer. Thus... Most northern valleys and the
portion of the basin north of interstate 90 will feature at least
a chance of mixed precipitation including freezing rain and sleet
late tonight and Wednesday morning. This will not be big
paralyzing event with only light amounts of precipitation
expected... And as stated before the best chance of anything
reaching the ground will be over the far northern zones with the
basin areas including the larger population centers either in a
downslope area (wenatchee) which will reduce precipitation
potential... Or on the extreme southern end of the threat area
(spokane cda area). Confidence is low as to how this will play
out... But the ingredients are present and the threat is high
enough to warrant a mention given the high impact commute period.

This wave will pass east of the forecast area Wednesday with any
basin valley precipitation turning to simple rain and ending in
the afternoon. Locally breezy conditions will develop during the
afternoon bringing another warmer than average afternoon and
probably an erosion of any lingering fog and low clouds in the
deep basin.

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning the weather
pattern will feature west or northwest zonal flow with an
increasingly moist feed off the pacific and into the forecast
area. This will promote periods of mountain snow showers in the
orographically favorable upslope regions... And probably dry but
variably cloudy conditions (high and mid level clouds) in the
basin. The mountains will probably pick up a slow accumulation of
3 to 6 inches or so in the panhandle and possibly up to a foot
over the high cascades near the crest. The most significant
accumulations will probably be above the pass levels so only minor
and transient travel impacts are expected.

Friday will bring a cold front descending from north to south
through the forecast area and push the moisture feed to the south
of the region. This front will provide a focusing mechanism which
in addition to more mountain snow showers will allow a band of
rain showers tracking north to south through the basin during the
day on Friday and increasingly breezy north winds down the
northern gap valleys by afternoon. Fugazzi
Friday night and Saturday... By Friday evening the cold front will
push south and east of the forecast area and high pressure will
build in from the west. Very dry air will follow the front Friday
evening and this will result in a mainly dry forecast. Some low
end pops were held in the forecast for Friday evening for
shoshone county in the northwest up-slope flow. However any
accumulations will be very light. Northeast will further dry out
the area and allow temperatures to cool off 4-7 degrees with highs
in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Winds will be light out of the
northeast, except for the north cascades where winds will be
northerly with gusts 20-30 mph.

Saturday night through Tuesday... High pressure will dominate the
weather through Tuesday. Model guidance is showing several weak
waves will move through the ridge with varying results. The one on
Monday may give some light precipitation to the idaho panhandle,
but for now the forecast was kept dry. There will be a much better
chance for light measurable precipitation Tuesday for the
cascades and Tuesday Tuesday night near the id mt border. Snow
levels are low enough to support light accumulations of snow down
to valley floors. A bigger concern will be strong morning
inversions, cool temperatures and widespread stratus and fog
beginning Sunday morning and likely lasting through Tuesday night.

The wind gradient is light out of the northeast and this could
allow any remaining moisture to pile up along the lower east
slopes of the cascades and the deep basin. Tobin

Aviation
00z: a blanket of low stratus remains entrenched over the lower
columbia basin at this hour and will continue to bring
restrictions to kmwh keph. SE winds will up the wenatchee river
valley could draw this deck toward keat the next few hours but
confidence is low and restrictions were based on haze mist noted
on the cams right now. Patchy fog may redevelop tonight around
kgeg-kcoe ahead of an incoming weak frontal system that will
result in lowering CIGS btwn 050-080k ft agl. Spotty light
precipitation may fall along the front between 10-17z. Any
precipitaiton will be very light but could fall as sleet or
freezing rain with amounts between a trace - 0.01". After
17z... Westerly flow increases mixing out the inversions and
shifting the main precipitation threat to mountains. Sb

Preliminary point temps pops
Spokane 29 42 33 45 35 43 0 20 10 10 20 30
coeur d'alene 28 43 33 45 35 44 0 30 10 20 40 40
pullman 30 47 35 50 37 46 0 10 10 10 30 30
lewiston 31 51 39 54 40 50 0 0 10 0 30 40
colville 29 39 31 42 31 44 10 30 10 20 30 10
sandpoint 26 40 31 42 34 42 10 40 20 40 60 20
kellogg 29 42 34 43 36 42 0 30 40 40 60 60
moses lake 24 44 30 49 34 49 0 10 0 0 10 10
wenatchee 28 43 34 48 37 48 10 20 10 10 20 30
omak 29 42 31 47 33 48 10 20 10 10 20 20

Otx watches warnings advisories
Id... None.

Wa... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 69 mi27 min SE 4.1 G 6 51°F 53°F1025.8 hPa
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 74 mi45 min SSE 16 G 17 51°F 1025.7 hPa (+0.0)37°F
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 80 mi33 min 44°F 53°F1026.9 hPa

Wind History for Seattle, Puget Sound, WA, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stampede Pass, WA37 mi1.8 hrsESE 410.00 miOvercast30°F24°F79%1030 hPa

Wind History from SMP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E74NE5545--454E6E5E55545E4E3E43E4E4
1 day ago455565E7655E7E76E7566446555NE7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm434344NE335433354454

Tide / Current Tables for Marysville, Quilceda Creek, Washington
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Marysville
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Tue -- 02:29 AM PST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:51 AM PST     10.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:31 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:57 PM PST     6.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:50 PM PST     7.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:41 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.81.30.40.41.53.35.57.79.510.610.910.59.68.37.16.46.16.47.17.77.97.66.85.6

Tide / Current Tables for Everett, Washington
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Everett
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Tue -- 01:59 AM PST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:42 AM PST     11.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:31 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:27 PM PST     6.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:41 PM PST     8.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:42 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.20.80.30.82.34.26.48.510.11111.210.79.78.57.46.96.97.27.78.18.17.76.75.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Spokane, WA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.