Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skykomish, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:20PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:05 AM PST (12:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 257 Am Pst Tue Nov 21 2017
Today..NE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming se in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Rain.
Wed..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely.
Wed night..S wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming se to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE wind to 10 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 257 Am Pst Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A strong warm front will move north through the waters this afternoon. Gale force winds are likely on the coast and at the west entrance ahead of the front, with small craft advisory strength winds elsewhere around the strait, the northern inland waters, and admiralty inlet. Strong south to southeast flow will continue Wednesday through next weekend as a series of fronts and low pressure systems move through the waters or by to the west. Each of the system has the potential to produce gale force winds over portions of the waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skykomish, WA
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location: 47.78, -121.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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Fxus66 kotx 211037
afdotx
area forecast discussion
national weather service spokane wa
237 am pst Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Expect wet and mild weather through the week as a series of storm
systems brings several rounds of precipitation to the region.

Snow levels will be quite high today through Thursday allowing
motorists to travel over mountain passes on wet pavement. Snow
levels will begin to lower just as travelers are heading home
Friday into the weekend. Breezy to windy conditions are expected
Thursday across the exposed areas of the basin and into the
spokane area and palouse.

Discussion
Today through Wednesday... Currently a ridge of high pressure is
over the pacific northwest, with a deep low pressure system just
moving inside of 150w early this morning. This puts the region in
a very warm and moist southwest flow that will remain over the
area into Thursday. Moderate to strong isentropic up glide and
several weak embedded waves will interact with the deep moisture
for widespread moderate to heavy precipitation. The precipitation
will begin late this morning across the western zones and move
across the area this afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will be
from late this evening through Wednesday morning, then decrease
slightly Wednesday afternoon. Snow levels will be high enough that
most of the precipitation will be as rain. Temperatures in the
40s today will increase to the upper 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday.

The potential hazard today will be for the possibility of freezing
precipitation for blewett pass and some of the mid slope areas
south of lake chelan this morning. Then for loup loup pass and
some of the higher valleys and mid slopes for the methow valley
this afternoon. This is far from a slam dunk forecast and for now
we will get the word out with social media and nowcasts.

Precipitation amounts will be quite impressive the couple of days.

The forecast area will see from a third of an inch to over three
quarters of an inch by Wednesday afternoon. The cascades from a
half inch to well over 2 inches near the crest. For the panhandle
from three quarters of an inch in the valleys with 1-2 inches
possible in the mountains. Warm temperatures and moderate rain on
an existing snow pack will result in heavy runoff into area
streams and rivers. Right now rapid rises are expected on all
small rivers and streams across the region, but no flooding is
expected. Paradise creek near moscow idaho was able to make it up
to just about action stage Monday afternoon. The precipitation
for moscow mountain will not be quite as much today and Wednesday,
but expect paradise creek to remain very high through the week.

Tobin
Wednesday night through thanksgiving night: a cold front will
push across the region during the day on thanksgiving. The front
will bring another round of precip along the front, but the more
significant impact with this frontal passage may be the winds.

* winds: strongest wind gusts are expected in the afternoon.

Models are in good agreement with 850 mb wind speeds up around
45 to 50 kts. Due to the timing of the front in the afternoon
and precip winding down across the basin and into the spokane-
coeur d'alene area and palouse, this should result in a period
of favorable mixing with the potential for these 45-50 kt winds
to mix down to the surface. The surface gradient doesn't look to
be particularly strong with sustained winds more likely in the
20-25 mph range and below wind advisory criteria. However,
advisory wind gust criteria of up to 45 mph does look promising.

Light weight objects may become airborne with these winds and
difficult travel of high profile vehicles will be possible,
particularly those traveling along i-90, us-2, us-395 and
us-195. Will add these potential impacts into our hwo, but it is
a bit early for a wind advisory at this time.

* precipitation: looking at a 6 hour or so period of light to
moderate rain across extreme eastern wa and into the id
panhandle. There is enough westerly flow that models show a
substantial rain shadow in the lee of the cascades. The
westerly orientation of the winds will also result in more
moderate rainfall intensity to be more favored in the panhandle.

Snow levels will be lowering over the cascades with showers
changing over to snow at stevens pass late in the afternoon with
some slush accumulating for the evening hours. This will just
be a pass issue with snow not expected to be much of an impact
during this period.

Friday through Monday: shortwave ridging building into the region
will result in a short break between weather systems on Friday.

This looks to be a lone relatively dry day with a potential for
some lingering mountain showers. The forecast turns wet again for
next weekend. Snow levels may begin low enough for a little bit of
snow to start out with Saturday morning down as low as 3000 feet.

Then snow levels will increase rapidly through the day Saturday
with even the highest mountain peaks changing over to rain. Models
disagree with when the trough will swing late in the weekend with
another potential for breezy to windy conditions during this
time. Svh

Aviation
06z tafs: areas of clearing in the columbia basin and spokane area
will promote stratus and patchy fog tonight. Exact restrictions
at any given airport carry low confidence as increasing mid and
high clouds will limit widespread development. A moist laden warm
front lifts into the area after 17z with top- down saturation,
widespread rain at the terminals, and mountain obscrns. There may
be a wintry mix for the cascade east slopes Tuesday morning into
the early afternoon including the methow valley airport. Jw

Preliminary point temps pops
Spokane 46 41 53 45 57 35 100 100 70 40 80 30
coeur d'alene 45 40 53 44 57 35 100 100 70 50 90 40
pullman 49 44 56 47 59 37 100 100 70 30 90 70
lewiston 53 46 59 48 62 40 80 80 70 20 80 80
colville 41 36 47 40 54 33 100 100 60 40 90 10
sandpoint 41 37 47 41 53 34 100 100 70 70 100 30
kellogg 42 39 49 43 53 34 100 100 80 40 100 80
moses lake 44 38 52 42 60 34 100 80 60 30 20 10
wenatchee 40 36 48 40 55 35 100 40 60 40 50 10
omak 42 36 47 42 56 34 100 70 50 50 70 10

Otx watches warnings advisories
Id... None.

Wa... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 69 mi48 min E 1 G 1.9 43°F 51°F1017.2 hPa
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 74 mi66 min Calm G 1.9 43°F 1017.4 hPa (-0.8)38°F
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 80 mi54 min 38°F 51°F1017 hPa

Wind History for Seattle, Puget Sound, WA, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stampede Pass, WA37 mi70 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F28°F96%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from SMP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3Calm344Calm354S76
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6CalmCalmCalmNE3Calm3445
1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3NE3NE3NE3NE33NE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4344433CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Marysville, Quilceda Creek, Washington
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Marysville
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Tue -- 12:24 AM PST     -0.87 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:22 AM PST     11.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:24 PM PST     6.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:24 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:45 PM PST     9.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:09 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.60.93.368.510.311.11110.39.286.96.36.47.188.99.18.67.35.63.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Everett, Washington
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Everett
Click for Map
Tue -- 07:14 AM PST     11.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:54 PM PST     6.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:24 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:37 PM PST     9.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:09 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-0.11.84.36.99.210.711.311.210.49.38.17.26.97.27.98.69.29.38.67.152.70.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Spokane, WA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.