Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 12:36 PM   Moonset 1:57 AM

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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 224 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Tonight - SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Fri - SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Fri night - NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Sat - S wind to 10 kt becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - NW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sun - Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft. Sun night - NW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Mon - Light wind becoming sw to 10 kt. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 1 ft or less. Tue - S wind to 10 kt becoming w. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 224 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Broad surface ridging will remain centered well offshore with low pressure inland and will result in varying degrees of onshore flow for much of the forecast period. A passing frontal system will bring breezy winds to the area waters today and into Friday. High pressure well offshore looks to remain into early next week.

FXUS66 KOTX 162346 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 446 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
The arrival of a vigorous cold front this afternoon and evening will produce widespread windy conditions, with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph across parts of central and eastern Washington and down to the Lewiston and Camas Prairie region. Gusty west winds will continue into Friday, with significantly cooler temperatures.
Seasonably cool and showery weather is expected this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION
Tonight through Saturday Night: A robust cold front with an associated strong upper level jet will move into the region this evening. There is a 20% chance of showers this evening along the US/Canadian border and a 50-60% chance along the crest of the Cascades. The more significant impact will be the windy conditions that are already being seen across the region. Gusts to 40 mph have already been reported around Douglas, Entiat, Moses Lake, Spokane, and Athol. Dodson Road just west of Moses Lake, Moses Lake and the Omak area are reporting reduced visibilities with some blowing dust. Winds will peak with the front this evening.
Locally, gusts could reach 50 mph.

*Impacts would include blowing dust across portions of the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley, especially near any recently plowed or worked fields; small branches broken; isolated power outages; rough waters on area lakes and the Columbia River; and unsecured objects being blown around.

Winds will continue through the night, tho not be as strong as with the front, but enough to warrant the wind advisories continuing. There is a 30-40% chance of showers developing across portions of the Idaho Panhandle and extreme eastern WA overnight and early Friday morning.

Winds will continue through Friday morning before decreasing in the afternoon. The upper level trough moves into the area with cold 500 mb temps. Have a 20% of afternoon thunderstorms for northeast Washington the the ID Panhandle with a 30-50% chance of showers.

Saturday another wave moves into the region which will provide more showers, especially across northern WA and ID.

Temperatures will be below average with highs in the 60s. Low temps tonight will be in the mid 30s to near 50, because of the winds keeping things well mixed. Low temps go down for Sat and Sunday morning into the mid 30s to low 40s, with some of the typical cold spots potentially reaching near freezing (Republic, Colville, Deer Park, Priest Lake) with frost possible. /Nisbet

Sunday: Model consensus remains high that a strong upper level low will be parked over extreme eastern WA and N ID during the morning hours before trudging slowly into SW MT by the afternoon. This will equate to wet and rather cool weather with numerous showers expected in and around the low. There will also be a chance of afternoon thunderstorms as 500 mb temperatures will be -25c or colder which will result in small CAPEs over NE WA into N ID. Precipitation amounts won’t be terribly heavy due to a relatively dry precipitable water content, however slow moving showers/storms could produce moderate amounts over isolated locations. Overall we expect precipitation amounts to range from a few hundredths of an inch to around a tenth of an inch. Over central Washington we expect little if any precipitation. High temperatures will be cool with readings in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Monday will likely be the “driest/warmest” day of the next 7 as there is good model agreement that we will see a brief shortwave ridge build over the region. The GEFS solutions are a little less sure of the ridging and hold onto some residual instability primarily over extreme E WA and the ID Panhandle. As such we will hold onto a small chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms, but this only represents about a quarter of the ensemble solutions. High temperatures will bounce back from the cool Sunday readings with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday: Ensemble agreement is very good that the next strong upper level low will move into the region sometime Tuesday and remain entrenched over the area through Thursday. This will equate to a renewed chance of showers each day with a small chance of thunderstorms. Once again, the precipitable water values will remain low and thus the total precipitation amounts will be relatively light. For the three day period precipitation amounts will likely range from 0.15-0.30” for most of eastern WA, 0.20-0.50” for the ID Panhandle, and less than 0.10” for central WA. Meanwhile high temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s and 60s. fx

AVIATION
00Z TAFS: Band of blowing dust is making its way across the Columbia Basin toward the West Plains as seen on satellite and web cams with brief MVFR conditions along with wind gusts of 35-40 kts. Scattered showers will continue across the northeast WA and north ID mountains through the evening. Gusty winds will prevail through the evening and even overnight with the passage of the upper level front with gusts of 25-35kt. Ceilings will lower from KCOE to KPUW with light showers possible early in the morning while a chance of showers continues for the afternoon for much of north ID. Dry VFR conditions will be found across much of central WA through the period. /rfox.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility reduction to 3-5SM with blowing dust has a low to mod probability of occurrence, but is possible near KGEG based on current observations. Dust is just as much a function of recent field work as it is wind speed. Low chances for MVFR conditions with clouds showers over southeast WA and north ID early Friday morning.
/rfox.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 43 63 39 63 40 60 / 10 20 0 10 20 30 Coeur d'Alene 44 59 38 60 39 56 / 40 40 10 10 30 40 Pullman 43 58 37 61 38 57 / 40 20 0 0 20 20 Lewiston 51 67 43 69 44 64 / 20 10 0 0 10 20 Colville 36 64 33 62 35 60 / 20 30 10 50 50 60 Sandpoint 43 57 37 58 38 55 / 30 60 20 40 50 70 Kellogg 43 54 40 58 41 52 / 60 60 10 20 30 60 Moses Lake 43 69 40 69 40 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 46 64 44 64 43 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 42 69 39 66 40 68 / 0 10 0 20 20 10

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

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Marysville
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Thu -- 01:22 AM PDT     10.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM PDT     4.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:29 PM PDT     6.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:58 PM PDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
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Marysville, Quilceda Creek, Washington, Tide feet

Everett
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Thu -- 01:13 AM PDT     10.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:28 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM PDT     5.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:20 PM PDT     6.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:28 PM PDT     2.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
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Everett, Washington, Tide feet

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