Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lofall, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:01PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 11:07 PM PST (07:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:05AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 901 Pm Pst Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am pst Wednesday...
Tonight..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 20 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon. Rain in the morning then numerous showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SE wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE wind to 10 kt rising to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Sat..SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 901 Pm Pst Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A frontal system will move slowly inland tonight with easing winds. Weak disturbance will cross the area roughly every 12 to 18 hours over the next few days. Stronger systems will arrive Friday night and Sunday

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lofall, WA
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location: 47.82, -122.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 240550
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
950 pm pst Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis A frontal system will move through the the lowlands
tonight getting hung up in the cascades Wednesday morning. A cool
upper level trough off the coast Wednesday will weaken on
Thursday. Another round of rain, possibly heavy at times, is
setting up for the weekend with a pair of systems moving through
western washington.

Short term Satellite imagery shows the front along the north
coast extending back to near 41n 128w at 05z 9pm with multiple
waves along the backside of the front. Doppler radar indicating a
little break in the rain over the central puget sound while for
most of the remainder of the area the rain that has been falling
all day is continuing. Temperatures at 9 pm were in the 40s and
lower 50s.

With the multiple waves on the back side of the front it will be
slow to move inland overnight. The break in the rain over the
central puget sound will be short lived with more rain spreading
into the area from the southwest. Rain will continue elsewhere.

Snow, heavy at times will also continue in the cascades.

Snoqualmie pass has already received 14 inches of new snow in the
last 12 hours, mount baker 16 inches and paradise on mount rainier
and stevens pass around 12 inches. Another 4 to 8 inches is
expected overnight with the snow level remaining at or below all
of the passes.

Front getting hung up in the cascades Wednesday morning then
slowly dissipating Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation rates in
the cascades will decrease with up to another 6 inches of snow
possible. For the lowlands, the steady precipitation will come to
an end in the morning west of puget sound and around midday for
the puget sound area eastward.

Cool upper level trough offshore Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
keeping showers in the forecast. 00z GFS run spins up a tight
little low with a center near 990 mb Wednesday night tracking
through the coastal waters into vancouver island early Thursday
morning. The NAM is much weaker with this feature. Forecast leans
toward the weaker NAM solution at this point and with the
inconsistency in the models will stay with that forecast this
evening.

Another trough axis moving through western washington on Friday
keeping showers in the forecast for another day. Current forecast
on track. No update this evening. Felton

Long term The medium range solutions were in better agreement in regards to
the atmospheric river that is anticipated this weekend. The
forecast was heavily weighted towards the ECMWF solution, which
was preferred. The other solutions were coming into more agreement
with the ecmwf.

A deep fetch of moisture from the subtropics will become directed
at western wa during the early part of this period. Rising snow
levels, a wetter air mass, and strong transport winds will result
in periods of heavy rain across much of the cwa, beginning
Saturday and then continuing into Monday morning. Rainfall amounts
in the mountains during the 48-hour period ending at 4 pm pst
Monday are anticipated to be 7-12 inches on the olympic range and
4-8 inches in the cascades. Across the lowlands, amounts are
forecast to be in the 1-4 inch range, with lighter amounts
occurring in the rain-shadow just northeast of the olympic range.

The rainfall amounts were bumped up above the model guidances
because they seemed too low. This amount rainfall on top of what
has already fallen could lead to flooding on many rivers as well
as urban and or small stream flooding.

Anticipate an upper level trough to move over the pacific
northwest the end of the period for a return to colder weather.

Aviation Southerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and
Wednesday as a frontal system continues to shift inland. An upper
level disturbance will move through the area late Wednesday
afternoon. The air mass is moist and stable but is expected to
become unstable Wednesday.

Cigs generally a mixed bag this evening with the majority of
conditions being eitherVFR or MVFR with isolated ifr conditions
possible. Conditions are expected to lower... With widespread MVFR
conditions expected overnight and much of wed.

Ksea... Ceilings 3000-4000 feet should lower some tonight with mostly
MVFR for much of wed. Southerly winds 8-12 knots. Schneider smr

Marine A frontal system will move inland tonight with easing
winds. Gales have ended but small craft advisory winds remain in
place but will gradually ease. 10-13 foot swell for the coastal
waters will linger into Wednesday.

Additional disturbances will move through the area over the next
few days for small craft advisory strength winds at times.

Stronger systems are expected Friday night and Sunday. Schneider smr

Hydrology Rainfall amounts in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range along
the south slopes of the olympics in the last 12 hours will push
the skokomish river well above flood stage overnight. The river is
just a tenth of a foot below flood stage at 915 pm. The river will
begin slowly receding later Wednesday.

There is still the potential for an atmospheric river to impact
the area this weekend into early next week for the possibility of
excessive rainfall. At this time, the location, exact amount, and
timing of the heavy rain are still not certain. The screaming
message is that the combination of a milder (snow levels rising
above 5500 feet) and wetter air mass with strong transport winds
could could possibly lead to flooding on many rivers as well as
potential cause some urban and or small stream flooding this
weekend or early next week.

The USGS landslide threshold indices were near or slightly above
the thresholds where landslides become probable. The additional
rainfall this week, and especially this weekend, will only
increase the threat of shallow landslides. Felton

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Winter storm warning until 6 am pst Wednesday for cascades of
pierce and lewis counties-cascades of snohomish and king
counties-cascades of whatcom and skagit counties.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 3 pm pst Wednesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm-coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater
10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough bar until 10 am pst Wednesday for
grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Wednesday for admiralty
inlet-central u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-east
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 6 am pst Wednesday for northern
inland waters including the san juan islands.

Small craft advisory until 9 am pst Wednesday for west entrance
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46120 16 mi53 min SSE 5.8 45°F 1004.6 hPa44°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 17 mi68 min SSE 7 G 8 44°F 1005.4 hPa (-2.2)41°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 21 mi50 min E 8 G 14 45°F 46°F1005.3 hPa
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 24 mi50 min SSE 5.1 G 8 46°F 48°F1005.6 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 35 mi68 min ESE 23 G 26 45°F 1003.7 hPa (-2.9)
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 40 mi50 min SSE 9.9 G 15
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 41 mi50 min 50°F 49°F1005.9 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 44 mi48 min SE 19 G 21 45°F 47°F3 ft1003.2 hPa44°F
PTAW1 - 9444090 - Port Angeles, WA 46 mi92 min 4.1 G 5.1 45°F 48°F1003.8 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 46 mi98 min ESE 14 42°F 1005 hPa40°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Everett Snohomish County, WA22 mi75 minE 85.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F39°F96%1005.9 hPa
Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport, WA24 mi72 minN 03.00 miRain Fog/Mist42°F42°F100%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from PAE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E5E8E7E7E8E6SE9SE5SE8SE7SE9SE7E74SE8E12
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1 day agoSE15
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2 days agoSE18
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Tide / Current Tables for Lofall, Washington
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Lofall
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:07 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:01 AM PST     3.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:41 AM PST     11.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:31 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:20 PM PST     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:32 PM PST     2.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:59 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:37 PM PST     7.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.154.23.84.25.478.610.11111.210.59.17.45.53.932.93.64.867.17.77.8

Tide / Current Tables for Hazel Point, Washington Current
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Hazel Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:02 AM PST     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:07 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:10 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:09 AM PST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:46 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:32 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:54 PM PST     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:20 PM PST     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:59 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:58 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:25 PM PST     0.31 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:53 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.2-00.30.40.40.30.2-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200.30.30.20.1-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.