Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:16AMSunset 5:11PM Thursday November 23, 2017 11:02 PM EST (04:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:18PMMoonset 9:41PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ140 311 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 310 am cdt...doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from near horseshoe bay and safe harbor...to 10 nm northwest of sand island...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Split rock bay...castle danger...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor...horseshoe bay and safe harbor...mouth of the poplar river... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...split rock lighthouse...and hollow rock bay. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4799 8941 4793 8946 4787 8964 4737 8997 4693 9138 4696 9174 4758 9088 4773 9054 4791 8981 4801 8966
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ140 Expires:201709230900;;800870 FZUS73 KDLH 230811 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2017 LSZ140>144-162-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 240235 aab
afddlh
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service duluth mn
835 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017

Update
Issued at 835 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017
surface low over the canadian prairie provinces continues to
deepen this evening ahead of a rapidly moving disturbance over the
pacific NW that will move eastward along the northern tier of
states for the next 24 hours. Strong pressure falls and and
increasingly strong southerly gradient should act to keep winds up
more than is typical for the overnight hours tonight, and this
combined with rather widespread cloud cover and a continued slow
northeastward movement of the surface warm front should lead to
steady or slowly rising temps during most of the overnight hours
in most areas.

A localized area of enhanced lift attributed to mid level
frontogenesis over western lake superior and northern wisconsin
has led to the development of a rather persistent area of light
showers. Spotter reports indicate that this seems to be reaching
the ground mainly in the form of rain. However, there continue to
be a few transient radar echoes between 35-40 dbz, and underneath
those heavier cores, some mixed precip snow graupel is possible
for the next few hours - but should not amount to much nor affect
road conditions in a negative manner with temps above freezing.

The two main adjustments to the forecast earlier this evening were
to increase pops to account for the showers to the east of duluth,
and to raise temps overnight, especially over northwest wisconsin,
where temps will likely be steady or rise a few degrees into the
mid-upper 30s now that the surface warm front has passed, despite
the snow cover.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 316 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017
main concerns for the short term are the slight chance of drizzle
or freezing drizzle in far northeast minnesota tonight and warm
temperatures with rain chances on Friday.

Mainly clear skies were found across most of the northland this
afternoon. Warm air advection aloft will continue tonight with 850
mb temperatures already well above freezing for much of the
northland and a thermal ridge farther west over the western
dakotas. Isentropic ascent has produced a narrow arc of clouds
from aitkin county northwest into northwestern minnesota. Look for
that arc of clouds to expand southeastward as the forcing lifts
northeast. Considerable dry air below the cloud layer was found
across the region with ceilings in the 7 kft range. Bufkit
soundings from the NAM and rap over northeast minnesota keep a
substantial dry layer in place below the cloud deck, which will
limit drizzle freezing drizzle potential tonight. Have moved the
precip mentions farther north with this forecast and raised
overnight low temperatures above the consensus blend.

A shortwave trough indicated in the rap analysis and goes-16
water vapor imagery over alberta and southern british columbia
will quickly advance across the canadian prairies tonight and into
minnesota on Friday. Surface low pressure will scoot eastward
across northern ontario with a cool front sliding through the
northland. Light rain is forecast to develop along and ahead of
the front and move through the region. Temperatures aloft will
cool behind the front, but a potential for mixed precipitation
will hold off until late afternoon or evening. Very mild
temperatures are expected with lows tonight from the middle 20s
to the middle 30s, 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Continued mild
for Friday with highs near 40 north and the upper 40s southwest,
10 to 18 degrees above normal.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 316 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017
the Friday system exits the system fairly quickly Friday night,
leaving some drizzle freezing drizzle snow chances for mainly the
arrowhead and parts of northwest wisconsin Friday night. This
should not have much of an impact as even if we do get these
weather types, we may only get some patchy ice accumulations. A
weak ridge axis moves across the area on Saturday and Saturday
night, with temperatures on the chilly side. Another shortwave
will move across manitoba and ontario late Saturday night and
Sunday, once again bringing a weak trough axis across the area. A
few models are producing precipitation, but most of them are drier
and have little if any precipitation and have left pops out of
the forecast with just an increase in cloud cover. Another ridge
slides through the area Sunday night.

We are finally beginning to get some consistency early next week,
with a longwave trough that swings across the conus. The GFS is
still more phased than the ecmwf, but much better than model runs
in the last few days. This should bring some warm temperatures
into the area, with highs rising several degrees above normals.

Late Monday and Monday night into early Tuesday some precipitation
chances will move through the area behind the surface boundary,
so initially we have rain which then becomes mixed with and
becomes all snow. We may see pops increase in the next few runs as
long as the consistence continues to increase.

Later in the week confidence remains low, as model differences
become more significant. For now we have some chances for snow in
the Wednesday night Thursday time range, with near normal
temperatures.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 606 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017
a rapidly moving disturbance will traverse the area over the next
24 hours, with initially southerly flow and warm advection, and
then a rather strong cold front will move across the area the last
6 hours or so of this TAF period, bringing a rapid shift back to
northwest winds. The atmosphere is relatively dry in advance of
this system, so despite rather strong ascent, precipitation is not
expected to be widespread or heavy, but most terminals should
experience a period of mainly rain showers during the morning to
midday hours on Friday. Low level wind shear is also expected at
all terminals through Friday morning, with southwest to west flow
between 35-45 knots within a couple thousand feet of the surface.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 33 44 23 29 20 50 10 0
inl 30 42 16 25 30 60 20 0
brd 35 46 27 34 20 40 0 0
hyr 33 44 27 32 0 50 0 0
asx 33 46 28 32 30 40 10 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 am cst Saturday for lsz121-140>143-
146>148.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Friday to 6 am cst Saturday for
lsz144-145.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi67 min S 8.9 38°F 1003.6 hPa31°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi45 min 37°F 1001.4 hPa33°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi63 min S 15 G 16 36°F 1004.3 hPa (-4.8)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi63 min S 6 G 8.9 39°F 1002.9 hPa (-4.2)26°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais, The Bay of Grand Marais, MN26 mi67 minS 9 mi38°F30°F76%1003.6 hPa

Wind History from GNA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9
G16
5W5SW9W934W5W7--W53SW6SW6SW9SW9SW10W6W6SW7S8S4S5S9
1 day ago3SW84W7CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmNW43W8SW9SW15
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2 days agoW8--W9W10
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--NW9
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NW8----N7NW7
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54W3Calm--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.