Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 9:18 PM Moonrise 4:07 AM   Moonset 4:03 PM

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LSZ140 /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-231005t2330z/ 624 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning will expire at 630 pm cdt - .
the affected areas were - . Grand marais to taconite harbor mn - . Grand portage to grand marais mn - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - .
the showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A gale warning remains in effect until 12 am cdt tonight.
lat - .lon 4751 8988 4712 9014 4710 9027 4709 9066 4710 9066 4723 9053 4771 9048 4781 9016 4786 8993 time - .mot - .loc 2322z 266deg 35kt 4767 9028 4736 9031 4727 9034 4714 9045

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 040532 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1232 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued on and off precipitation chances through the next 7-10 days, with most of the precipitation falling tonight into Saturday and then Monday night into Tuesday.

- In between rounds of rainfall, dry conditions in combination with strong winds could lead to near-critical fire weather conditions on Monday.

- Thunderstorms are possible (20-30 percent chance) late Monday through Tuesday night, with severe weather potential very low - perhaps a 5 percent chance at most for isolated marginally severe storms in northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An active weather pattern continues through the first week of May, which is helping to reduce the number of dry and windy days that could lead to critical fire weather conditions. Today will be mainly sunny to start across the Northland with the exception of parts of Koochiching County where the closed low lifting north is still causing cloudy skies and the occasional light rain shower. Highs today in the 60s (perhaps a stray 70 in northwest Wisconsin) and drying out with relative humidity values as low as 25-30 percent.
Windy with southwest winds 15-20 mph with winds gusting as high as 25-30 mph. Clouds return this afternoon from west to east.

On the synoptic scale a fairly progressive pattern across North America to start the weekend as a closed low over northern Minnesota lifts northward with the parent longwave mid/upper level trough over the Canadian Prairie into the Dakotas gradually meanders eastward.
This eastward progression is accelerated this evening as a fast- moving mid-level shortwave trough digs in across the central Rockies and then ejects northeastward towards Lake Superior tonight into Saturday. This impulse brings with it impressive broad-scale lift across the region tonight with strong warm air advection at low levels across northern Wisconsin and excellent positive vorticity advection over MN/WI, with a surface front emerging/sharpening up nearly in line with the MN/WI border Saturday morning. The best broad-scale lift is offset from the best area of low level moisture, and combined with the fast-moving nature of this impulse there is an atypically large spread in guidance for the precip amounts - generally amounts of around a tenth to quarter inch expected along and south/east of the Iron Range (highest from Brainerd/Lake Mille Lacs to the Twin Ports and up the north shore), with the odds for a half inch or more low (20-30 percent, highest across eastern MN) and values over an inch unlikely (less than 5 percent chance). The exception will be north and west of the Iron Range (which has missed out of the highest precip amounts over the previous week) where little to no precipitation is expected due to weaker broad-scale lift.

The weekend won't be a total washout, though - sunshine should start to peak out of the clouds in central Minnesota by the afternoon Saturday, and most locations across the Northland will be the sun break out before sunset Saturday evening. Sunday will be a top-ten weather day with sunny skies, highs in the 60s (50s for parts of the north shore) and weak winds as a broad area of high pressure builds in across the Upper Midwest. Warmer and breezy on Monday with highs hitting the 70 degree mark for much of the Northland (except near Lake Superior where east winds will keep temps in the 50s to low 60s). Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible as relative humidity values fall to 25 to 35 percent and southeast winds gust as strong as 20-30 mph.

Another round of precipitation arrives late Monday with precipitation chances every day for the rest of the week. While mid/upper level ridging builds in across the Midwest this weekend, a very large closed upper level low enters the western CONUS, digging into the Four Corners region and causing a resultant surface low to deepen over the Great Plains, with the surface low probably develop in the Central High Plains Monday, lifting north into the northern Great Plains on Tuesday. This surface low will be anomalously deep for this time of the year - a much more winter/early spring evolution than late spring - and then the mature low over the northern Great Plains just... hangs out for a few days. The closed low essentially gets stuck as the "parent" upper level longwave trough slowly moves eastward into the Great Plains through the rest of the work week, with the weakening surface low tracking east from the Dakotas into the Upper Great Lakes. This pattern evolution is complicated, and with the complex nature there is a lot of uncertainty in the details. However, in most scenarios there will be off and on precipitation chances through the week with temperatures near normal (highs in the upper 50s to 60s).

Most of the precipitation next week will fall late Monday and through Tuesday, with elevated instability leading to a few embedded thunderstorms. There MAY be scenario in which a few storms are capable of small hail in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon, but severe weather is unlikely. In total Mon night through Wednesday morning around a quarter to half inch of rainfall is expected, but locally higher amounts of an inch are possible.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A band of light to locally moderate rain persists in the Brainerd Lakes to the Arrowhead for the rest of tonight as a frontal boundary drapes over the Northland. Expect light west to southwesterly winds in north-central Minnesota west of the boundary and light and variable surface winds in northwest Wisconsin through early Saturday morning. As the responsible low pressure centered in Ontario pushes eastward, expect the better rain chances after 10Z and through 20Z for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including MVFR ceilings and visibility.
Winds shift westerly and then northwesterly behind the frontal passage by later Saturday daytime. An area of scattered showers is likely (60% chance) to form behind the front along and north of US Hwy 2 in Minnesota from 17Z Sat to 01Z Sun. Steep lapse rates aloft may (10-15% chance) support an isolated thunderstorm somewhere from a BJI-INL-HIB-ELO bounded region in far northern Minnesota in that time period, but chances are much better for localized MVFR vis reductions again in these showers.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Strong southwest winds today gradually weaken this evening, with Small Craft Advisories in effect through the day. Another round of rain tonight into Saturday with weak west winds 5-10 knots Saturday, increasing and becoming more southerly at 10-15 knots on Sunday as high pressure builds in. A change on Monday as northeast winds increase through the day as an area of low pressure deepens across the Dakotas, with steady winds around 15-20 knots developing Monday and persisting through Tuesday/Tuesday night. Gale-force gusts are possible (10 percent chance) on Tuesday afternoon, but widespread gale force winds are not anticipated. With a long period of steady northeast winds, waves will build to 3-6 feet Tuesday, possibly larger for the north shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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