Saturday, March23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 8:15PM Saturday March 23, 2019 4:40 PM EDT (20:40 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 8:39AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ140 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... At 459 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 14 nm east of tofte safe harbor, to 7 nm northeast of raspberry island lighthouse, moving east at 60 knots. Locations impacted include... Beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, raspberry island lighthouse, sand island, sugar loaf cove, tofte safe harbor, and tofte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4693 9026 4695 9099 4724 9136 4758 9088 4772 9055 4779 9029 4784 8966
LSZ140 Expires:201810032230;;193128 FZUS73 KDLH 032159 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 459 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2018 LSZ140>143-146-147-162-032230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 231957
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
257 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 250 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019
quiet conditions will continue for the rest of the afternoon and
evening hours, but an approaching cold front from the north will
bring increasing clouds overnight, with some small chances of
precipitation as well.

A large upper-level trough will swing through the manitoba ontario
canada region tonight, which will allow an attendant surface cold
front to dive southward over the northland late tonight through
Sunday morning. Most of the model soundings indicate that this front
appears rather moisture starved, with very little ice crystal growth
aloft due to a mostly dry profile. While there will be some decent
lift associated with the cold frontal zone, characterized by
enhanced low-level fgen and decent isentropic ascent, the bulk of
the moisture will be confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere,
suggesting drizzle freezing drizzle to be the most likely
precipitation type. In areas of freezing drizzle, this could
generate a thin glaze of ice on untreated road surfaces,
particularly from lake superior west-southwest towards the brainerd
lakes region. As the cold front shifts over central minnesota by the
afternoon, the precipitation chances will subside. Highs Sunday will
be quite a bit cooler compared to today, due to the cloud cover and
cold air advection behind the front, ranging from the lower to
middle 20s north to the upper 20s south.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the departing
cold front, which will bring clearing skies and light winds. Expect
a pretty chilly night Sunday night Monday morning, with lows in the
single digits to middle teens above zero.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 250 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019
the period will start out dry with high pressure over near the
region with temperatures near normal but will warm through mid week
with an area of low pressure approaching the area.

An upper ridge will be over the western CONUS Monday with a surface
high over the northland. The ridge will move east and the surface
high will pass east of the region allowing low level southerly flow
to develop on Tuesday. We expect dry weather into Tuesday with
temperatures rising into the forties.

As the upper ridge passes east of the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, an upper trough will move over the western CONUS with a
surface low near the area by 00z Thursday. Strong low level warm air
advection will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday, resulting in
some chances for mainly light showers. There may be some snow
showers Tuesday night before the warmer air arrives. Highs
Wednesday will be in the fifties.

The GFS and ECMWF diverge sharply in their solutions by Thursday
with the GFS showing more phasing with the northern stream versus
the ECMWF which keeps the northern upper low separate from the
southern trough. The GFS and canadian are similar with moving a
trough slowly through the northland Wednesday night into Friday with
the ECMWF keeping the surface low pressure further south along with
most of the precipitation. The GFS and canadian indicate significant
rainfall could occur over portions of the northland. We have a
chance for showers from mid week into the weekend for now.

Temperatures will drop back into the upper thirties to middle
forties by Friday. Lows will be warmest Wednesday night when they
remain in the mid thirties to mid forties but most other days they
will be at or below freezing for most areas.

A gradual melt will continue next week, although highs in the mid to
upper fifties on Wednesday will lead to accelerated melting. If
significant rainfall were to occur as indicated by the canadian gfs,
quicker rises in area rivers would occur.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1246 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019
vfr conditions will continue into the evening as a cold front
moves south out of ontario. The wind will veer to north to
northeast after frontal passage tonight and increase in strength
with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely with locally higher gusts
possible. Winds will be easterly for a time near lake superior
late tonight into Sunday morning. MVFR ceilings will occur after
frontal passage and perhaps some drizzle, freezing drizzle, or
light snow. Ceilings will lift toVFR or become scattered from
north to south through the day Sunday.

Issued at 250 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019
southwest winds will continue this evening with the best combination
of higher wind and waves occurring along portions of the north
shore. A small craft advisory will continue there into this evening.

A cold front will move through the region later tonight switching
the wind to east to northeast overnight. Wind speeds will quickly
increase with the frontal passage with sustained winds from 15 to 25
knots and gusts of 25 to 30 knots. There may be a period of gale
force gusts around 35 knots as well. The wind switch and increase
will occur between 2 am and 4 am around grand portage and it will
work it's way south overnight reaching the south shore between 6 am
and 7 am. The wind will then decrease through the day from north to
south. We will issue a small craft advisory for the stronger winds
later tonight into Sunday. We do not plan on issuing any gale
watches warnings at this point and if they were to occur, we
expect only a brief period.

Issued at 250 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019
gradual snowmelt will continue across the northland with daytime
temperatures above freezing and overnight lows dipping below
freezing most nights. Lows Tuesday night will remain above
freezing in spots, and they will be in the mid thirties to mid
forties Wednesday night. Water levels in area rivers are expected
to increase over the next 7 days. The mississippi river at fort
ripley is forecast to rise to near or slightly above minor flood
stage Wednesday night or Thursday. In addition, with ice on many
rivers, there is a risk of ice jam flooding through the next week.

There is a chance for precipitation mid to late week as well,
which could contribute to additional water rises.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 27 34 13 38 20 30 0 0
inl 21 33 7 38 20 0 0 0
brd 27 40 15 40 10 20 0 0
hyr 25 39 9 40 10 20 0 0
asx 27 33 11 40 20 30 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for lsz140-141.

Short term... Jts
long term... Melde
aviation... Melde
hydrology... Melde
marine... Melde

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi45 min WSW 11 39°F 1018.9 hPa29°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi59 min 40°F 1017.9 hPa31°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi41 min WSW 29 G 31 38°F 1018.7 hPa
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi41 min SW 12 G 15 39°F 1019.5 hPa (-2.2)26°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais, The Bay of Grand Marais, MN26 mi45 minWSW 11 mi39°F28°F67%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from GNA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW6SW9SW9SW8W3CalmW3W3NW3NW3W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmW6SW12SW15W10W9SW14W10
1 day agoNW7
2 days agoN7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.