Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 9:09 PM Moonrise 12:51 AM   Moonset 8:11 AM

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LSZ140 /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-231005t2330z/ 624 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning will expire at 630 pm cdt - .
the affected areas were - . Grand marais to taconite harbor mn - . Grand portage to grand marais mn - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - .
the showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A gale warning remains in effect until 12 am cdt tonight.
lat - .lon 4751 8988 4712 9014 4710 9027 4709 9066 4710 9066 4723 9053 4771 9048 4781 9016 4786 8993 time - .mot - .loc 2322z 266deg 35kt 4767 9028 4736 9031 4727 9034 4714 9045

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 290019 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 719 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

UPDATE
Issued at 719 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Rain continued to slowly push north this evening. Temperatures are quite cool, lower to mid-thirties across most areas where it's raining. Locally cooler values were occurring in Duluth, over the hill where upslope cooling affects are maximized. Some light freezing rain has been reported in Duluth.
Temperature/dewpoint differences of 1 to 2 degrees will be the difference between just rain and some freezing rain. We don't expect significant icing for most, just some spotty light amounts on mostly elevated surfaces. Higher-res guidance forecasts temperatures to rise in the Twin Ports a degree or two later this evening and we'll watch trends closely. There are no plans to expand the Winter Weather Advisory at this moment but things could change if temperatures cool any more and we are losing what help we had from the sun through the clouds.

A bit more freezing rain is still forecast further north along the higher terrain of the North Shore.

KEY MESSAGES

- A spring storm will bring widespread rain to the Northland through Monday (accumulations around 0.25" to 1")

- Localized freezing rain is expected for the higher terrain of the North Shore tonight into Monday (accumulations to around 0.15")

- Light snow will mix with rain for parts of northeast Minnesota tonight into Monday (accumulations up to 1" mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces around and north of the Iron Range)

- Strong northeast winds up to 50 mph are expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

- Active weather continues through the week with rainy systems on Tuesday and Thursday



DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Rain has begun spreading northward ahead of a low pressure system that will affect the region through Monday night. The forecast remains mostly on track in terms of expected rainfall amounts, albeit with a bit of a westward shift in the highest amounts expected. Totals are still expected to range from around 0.25" to 1" with perhaps some locally higher amounts possible through Monday evening.

Models still continue to strongly suggest some localized accumulations of freezing rain along the higher terrain of the North Shore with orographic lift and adiabatic cooling. Several models continue to be unrealistically high with ice accumulations around or higher than 0.25", but there are several factors that weigh against that, including occasionally moderate to heavy rainfall rates that would limit icing potential, a limited window tonight into early Monday morning where temperatures will be cold enough for icing, and a high sun angle that will limit further accumulations during the day on Monday.
Note also that any ice accumulations are expected to remain inland and in higher elevations from the MN-61 corridor, where precipitation will be all rain, and even in the higher terrain, icing is expected to be pretty localized. Localized icing to around 0.15" is expected, and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect tonight through Monday morning for the Arrowhead. Note that many places within the advisory may not see any icing, especially right near Lake Superior.

There has also been a continuing trend among models suggesting a mix or changeover to snow for a good chunk of northeast Minnesota late tonight through Monday morning (a few models keep enough cold air around aloft to keep snow possible into the afternoon). Similar to the North Shore freezing rain potential, there are some models that are suggesting advisory-level snowfall amounts that, at this point, seem largely unrealistic given the narrow time window that snow accumulation will be possible and temperatures that are just cold enough to support snow. Places that may see a mix or changeover to snow will be along the Iron Range and points north towards the International Border where enough cold air may be present. Thermal profiles are nearly isothermal around or a degree or two below freezing though, so snow will be of the wet/heavy consistency and will likely be more efficient at accumulating on grassy and elevated surfaces versus roadways. The time range for this changeover will be late tonight (3-4 AM or so), then the best chances for any accumulation (up to around 1") between then and 9-10 AM, then mixing back with rain as temperatures warm up through Monday afternoon.

The strong northeast winds have already started up around the head of the lake and are expected to persist tonight through Monday morning with gusts to 45-50 mph along the North Shore.
Latest guidance does suggest that winds may start to drop a little earlier than expected mid-day Monday. A Wind Advisory remains in effect along the North Shore until 4 PM Monday afternoon, but there is a possibility that it may be allowed to expire a little earlier if this trend continues.

Lingering rain or mixed precipitation may become a bit more showery Monday afternoon. There may be the slightest amount of instability possible to prompt a rumble of thunder or two, but this is not expected to be common. Otherwise, as low pressure departs northeast, the rain or mixed rain/snow will taper to sprinkles/flurries Monday evening before ending. There may be some residual fog Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Attention then turns to yet another system that's expected to pass through Tuesday into Tuesday night. This one looks like it will be quick-hitting, but a bit more potent in terms of dynamic forcing as a negatively tilted trough aloft combines with some convective instability. We'll likely see some heavier rainfall rates, and thus the WPC has parts of the Northland under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Many areas will likely see another quick 0.25" to near 1". Couldn't rule out a few locally higher totals, but that will depend on how much instability ends up being available to produce thunderstorms.

We may see a break with some dry weather on Wednesday before the active pattern continues in full swing Thursday into Friday.
Several models hint at another broad-scale low-pressure system that could bring more rainfall to the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Ceilings are or will become IFR or lower for all areas for most of the period. An area of low pressure will lift north tonight through Monday. Widespread rain was moving slowly north and will continue tonight. The rain will diminish over southern parts of the Northland later tonight and become more showery.
The North Shore and far northern Minnesota may see more of wintry mix develop. The North Shore, possibly down into the higher terrain of the Duluth area, could see some freezing rain.
Temperatures there were or will drop to near freezing. A degree or two lower and freezing rain will develop. Areas further inland in far northern Minnesota will see a thermal profile that will support some snow or sleet later tonight into Monday.
Significant snow accumulations are unlikely but some light ice accumulations are possible, mostly likely in the higher terrain up the North Shore.

Gusty easterly winds will continue tonight, strongest around and just inland from Lake Superior. The wind will gradually diminish later tonight into Monday as the gradient weakens as the low moves further into the region. The center of the low will move into northern Wisconsin or over the far western Upper Peninsula by Monday evening causing wind direction to change, depending on location relative to the low center.

MARINE
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Strong northeast winds gusting from 35 to 45 kt are expected for most nearshore waters through Monday morning, and Gale Warnings are in effect. Waves around 8-14 ft are expected as well. Rain is expected through Monday afternoon. Models have trended slightly downward in winds mid-day to afternoon Monday, so it's possible that gale-force gusts may end a little early. But, blustery winds will still persist into the evening before direction changes to northwesterly late Monday night and winds lessen. Wind speeds and gusts are expected to remain below 15 kt through Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for MNZ012-021.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for MNZ020-021.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for MNZ037.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ121-148.
Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>143-146-147-150.
Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for LSZ144-145.

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