Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:36AMSunset 5:04PM Monday December 10, 2018 3:43 AM EST (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 8:15PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ140 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... At 459 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 14 nm east of tofte safe harbor, to 7 nm northeast of raspberry island lighthouse, moving east at 60 knots. Locations impacted include... Beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, raspberry island lighthouse, sand island, sugar loaf cove, tofte safe harbor, and tofte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4693 9026 4695 9099 4724 9136 4758 9088 4772 9055 4779 9029 4784 8966
LSZ140 Expires:201810032230;;193128 FZUS73 KDLH 032159 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 459 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2018 LSZ140>143-146-147-162-032230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 100544
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1144 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018

Update
Issued at 1144 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018
updated below for 06z aviation discussion.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 306 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018
the short term period remains quiet with the main concern stratus
and fog development tonight.

Stratus remained along the international border and arrowhead this
afternoon but was diminishing. The clouds in the arrowhead will
likely hang on the longest into this evening. There remains some
uncertainty if stratus will redevelop tonight and the rap indicates
northwest wisconsin will have the best chance along with some fog. A
shortwave will move into northwest minnesota late tonight then
through the region on Monday. Soundings continue to be very dry so
we expect little from this shortwave. We do increase cloud cover
overnight but only to partly cloudy for most areas with a bit more
cloud over northwest wisconsin. Lows will dip to 5 to 15 for much of
the area.

Any stratus fog that forms tonight will lift through the day Monday
and highs will rebound into the mid twenties to around thirty.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 306 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018
mild temperatures are expected for the long term with highs
trending above average. There is a chance of light snow Wednesday
in northwest wisconsin and no significant systems are forecast.

A progressive pattern aloft is forecast for the upcoming week
with the subtropical jet well to our south across the southern
conus. A weak shortwave trough will move through the region
Wednesday which may provide sufficient lift for a few snow
showers over northwest wisconsin. With limited moisture
available, think a dusting of snow up to maybe a half-inch is
forecast. Another shortwave trough will cruise eastward through
the region from early Thursday morning through the afternoon.

Another round of light snow showers with the trough. High
pressure then returns Friday and Saturday. Southwest flow aloft
may result in temperatures warmer than the consensus blend for
Saturday. The deterministic ECMWF and gem forecasts point to
temperatures much above normal for the start of the weekend. Have
remained close to the consensus blend for now with the GFS not
quite as warm.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1144 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018
high pressure will keepVFR ceilings in place through most of the
period. Some MVFR ifr visibilities will be seen this morning at
hib, brd and hyr with some light fog. Smoke haze is again expected
throughout the region on Monday, but visibilities are expected to
remainVFR. A brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible
around sunrise at hyr due to some low stratus, but it is expected
to scatter out by mid-morning if it does occur.

Marine
Issued at 1002 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018
stronger winds aloft may mix down along the bayfield peninsula, so
opted to raise a small craft for this and the resultant waves that
occur. This is accompanying a broad weak low that is crossing the
northern side of lake superior through Monday evening.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 14 30 12 25 0 0 0 0
inl 3 26 7 22 0 0 0 0
brd 9 32 12 28 0 0 0 0
hyr 10 29 12 27 0 0 0 0
asx 15 30 17 28 0 0 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst Monday for lsz146-147.

Update... Bjh
short term... Melde
long term... Huyck
aviation... Bjh
marine... Wolfe


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi47 min NW 5.1 15°F 1020.6 hPa11°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi43 min 20°F 48°F1018.7 hPa (-1.8)17°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi43 min WSW 11 G 13 27°F 1021 hPa (-1.6)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi43 min SW 17 G 23 28°F 1020.7 hPa (-1.1)26°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais, The Bay of Grand Marais, MN26 mi1.8 hrsWNW 3 mi14°F10°F88%1021 hPa

Wind History from GNA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W5W9W7W9W7W4NW5CalmNW63NW3W65W4NW6NW4NW4CalmNW3W4CalmW3NW5
1 day agoSW7W7W5W6W6W4SW6W10SW10SW11SW10SW13SW19SW21SW19
G26
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NW4W85NW3
2 days agoCalmNW6NW76
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G14
5W6
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.