Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grand Marais, MN
May 14, 2024 2:51 PM EDT (18:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 9:31 PM Moonrise 11:07 AM Moonset 2:13 AM |
LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 334 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024 /234 Am Cdt Tue May 14 2024/
Early this morning - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Today - Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots veering east in the afternoon, then backing northeast late. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Waves building to 3 to 6 feet occasionally to 8 feet.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots after midnight. A chance of rain showers. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - East winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots by mid afternoon. Rain showers likely through early afternoon, then a chance of rain showers by mid afternoon. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 10 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots backing west. A chance of showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
LSZ100
No data
No data
FXUS63 KDLH 141747 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry conditions continue today and into Wednesday prior to low pressure system.
- Frost may form again tonight in areas in our far east and may need a Frost Advisory.
- Rain showers and thunderstorms will move east across the Northland Wednesday evening into Thursday, with more chances to end the week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Today:
Dry conditions continue today. Classic inverted V soundings across the area today indicate RHs below 30 percent due to mixing down very dry air, with some pockets possibly reaching below 25 if mixing is efficient. In addition, smoke from Canadian wildfires linger aloft according to the HRRR Smoke model, but won't be nearly as thick as it was yesterday. Still, added in some 10-20% sky cover for what smoke is left above the area.
Chances for frost continue tonight with efficient radiational cooling at the surface in our eastern counties in Wisconsin and the far northeast portions of the Arrowhead prior to the arrival of the rain system. Temperatures will once again reach down into the low to mid 30s in those areas. Another Frost Advisory may be needed again tonight.
Wednesday system:
An open wave trough dips into the Rockies today and will help develop a surface low pressure system in the Northern Plains.
This system will move east to the Northland and will bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. Wisconsin will stay dry for most of the day, with conditions similar to today before the system moves through. The environment for thunderstorms is not impressive, but with MUCAPE of a up to a hundred from the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin, a rumble of thunder or two is not out of the question. High res models seem to pick up the slow nature of the onset of precipitation, so largely went with precipitation probabilities from those.
Late week and weekend:
Global models start to diverge at this point, but hint at a secondary weaker system behind Wednesday's low. However, timing of the system is slower for the GFS than the European. Several more chances for showers and storms will occur over the weekend and into next week, along with warmer temperatures over the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
A lake breeze will keep winds and gusts blustery through the early evening at DLH (gusts to around 20 kt). Lighter winds elsewhere. VFR conditions are expected through the period.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 942 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
We decided to issue a Small Craft Advisory for the head of the lake today as winds may creep up to 25 kt with waves up to 3-4 ft this afternoon at times. Adjusted winds/gusts upwards by ~1-3 knots nearly everywhere with lake breezes allowing for some blustery conditions today. No other changes from the previous forecast.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144- 145.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry conditions continue today and into Wednesday prior to low pressure system.
- Frost may form again tonight in areas in our far east and may need a Frost Advisory.
- Rain showers and thunderstorms will move east across the Northland Wednesday evening into Thursday, with more chances to end the week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Today:
Dry conditions continue today. Classic inverted V soundings across the area today indicate RHs below 30 percent due to mixing down very dry air, with some pockets possibly reaching below 25 if mixing is efficient. In addition, smoke from Canadian wildfires linger aloft according to the HRRR Smoke model, but won't be nearly as thick as it was yesterday. Still, added in some 10-20% sky cover for what smoke is left above the area.
Chances for frost continue tonight with efficient radiational cooling at the surface in our eastern counties in Wisconsin and the far northeast portions of the Arrowhead prior to the arrival of the rain system. Temperatures will once again reach down into the low to mid 30s in those areas. Another Frost Advisory may be needed again tonight.
Wednesday system:
An open wave trough dips into the Rockies today and will help develop a surface low pressure system in the Northern Plains.
This system will move east to the Northland and will bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. Wisconsin will stay dry for most of the day, with conditions similar to today before the system moves through. The environment for thunderstorms is not impressive, but with MUCAPE of a up to a hundred from the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin, a rumble of thunder or two is not out of the question. High res models seem to pick up the slow nature of the onset of precipitation, so largely went with precipitation probabilities from those.
Late week and weekend:
Global models start to diverge at this point, but hint at a secondary weaker system behind Wednesday's low. However, timing of the system is slower for the GFS than the European. Several more chances for showers and storms will occur over the weekend and into next week, along with warmer temperatures over the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
A lake breeze will keep winds and gusts blustery through the early evening at DLH (gusts to around 20 kt). Lighter winds elsewhere. VFR conditions are expected through the period.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 942 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
We decided to issue a Small Craft Advisory for the head of the lake today as winds may creep up to 25 kt with waves up to 3-4 ft this afternoon at times. Adjusted winds/gusts upwards by ~1-3 knots nearly everywhere with lake breezes allowing for some blustery conditions today. No other changes from the previous forecast.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144- 145.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN | 26 mi | 51 min | 44°F | 43°F | 30.01 | 40°F | ||
| KGNA | 26 mi | 55 min | E 8 | 45°F | 30.06 | 36°F | ||
| ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI | 29 mi | 51 min | SE 9.9G | 39°F | 30.09 | |||
| 45006 - W SUPERIOR 48NM North of Ironwood, MI | 37 mi | 41 min | ENE 7.8G | 38°F | 38°F | 30.06 | 37°F |
Marquette, MI,
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