Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Athol, ID

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Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:51PM Monday August 20, 2018 8:04 AM PDT (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:16PMMoonset 12:36AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Athol, ID
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location: 47.98, -116.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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Fxus66 kotx 200937
afdotx
area forecast discussion
national weather service spokane wa
237 am pdt Mon aug 20 2018

Synopsis
Gusty north winds will blow some of the smoke out of north idaho
and eastern washington today. However, the warm winds will raise
concerns for the spread of wildfires. Winds will relax during the
day Tuesday. A pattern change during the second half of the week
will bring cooler temperatures and cleaner west winds to the
pacific northwest which should improve air quality.

Discussion
Strong north to northeast winds today...

today: today will be an active weather day across the inland northwest
will the main focus centered on strong north to northeast winds but
also a chance for thunderstorms for some. There are two main
features coming into play today which are clearly evident on 2am
water vapor imagery. To the north, we see an area of darkening
dropping south through bc and very close to moving across the
international border. This is the northern branch shortwave that
will usher in the northerly winds today. To the south over oregon,
a broader cyclonic circulation is tapping into midlevel
instability and moisture and churning up some thunderstorms
across far southeastern wa and lower idaho panhandle. These two
features will phase over the next 24 hours and slowly drift to the
south southeast.

Winds: the strongest winds today will focus in three areas. 1) north
winds will channel through the okanogan valley southward across
the waterville plateau and spill into grant county impacting banks
lake, ephrata, and moses lake. These winds will start early
Monday morning and continue into the afternoon. Speeds will be on
the order of 15-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph but isolated stronger
gusts are not out of the question. 2) northeast winds will channel
down the purcell trench of N idaho from sandpoint to post falls
and spill into the west plains. Speeds will also be on the order
of 15-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph and I anticipate the strongest
gusts to be observed on the selkirks, sandpoint ap, and around
rathdrum. Timing also favors Monday morning and early afternoon.

3) the northeast winds will fan out into the columbia basin and
given the lack of vegetation and sheltering, pick up speeds of
15-25 mph. Gusts will be not be as strong due to less channeling
through narrow valleys but still on the order of 30-35 mph given
25-28kts through the mixed layer. For the remainder of the region,
an increase in winds will be noticeable but different degrees of
sheltering will result in speeds on the order of 5-15 mph with
infrequent gusts 15-20 mph but generally from the north northeast.

Showers thunderstorms: we have one band of convection passing through
the camas prairie at this time. Look for this moisture in the
form of showers and embedded thunderstorms to linger from the
camas prairie to SE shoshone county through much of the day and
re-organize into isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon while bending back into the palouse, l-c valley, and
blue mountains before clearing out this evening. There is also a
ribbon of instability draped northward along the mt id border
which will sag to the west as the northeast winds charge inland
this morning. GFS continues to show some spotty QPF along this
instability and NAM would support the idea of brief convection but
never really indicates any organization. Given the lack of
support from other hi-res models, opted to keep the best chances
along the mt border and to the southeast but will need to monitor
how this evolves through the morning hours.

Smoke haze: conditions are down right hazardous this morning for a
majority of the inland nw. Our smoke models do give us hope today
and Tuesday with the strong north northeasterly winds. The wind
change suggest areas of N wa and N id will see improvement as
plumes of smoke from active fires will become more constricted and
aligned with the wind field. Initially this will get transported
toward oregon but as winds trend more northeast east and expand
over much of the region, thinking the cascades will continue to
receive a heavy dose of smoke while conditons improve over N id
and ERN wa. Of course, there are fires in montana as well and a
lot will be decided based on what kind of smoke output these fires
produce so nothing is a guarantee at this time.

Impacts: the combination of strong winds and low humidity will result
in critical fire weather conditions today and red flag warnings
have been issued. Winds will result in choppy lakes and potential
for minor tree damage and isolated power outages. We will also
have to keep an eye out for localized blowing dust in the basin.

Tonight and Tuesday: the region will be under north northeasterly flow
aloft with a cool surface high sliding down the continental
divide. This will continue to bring breezy east to northeasterly
winds overnight and Tuesday. Speeds will lower from Monday but
gusts on the order of 20-25 mph will remain possible over exposed
ridge tops and across the open columbia basin. The axis of
moisture will be shoved well south of my area leading to dry
conditions. Heavy concentrations of smoke will continue to be
localized downstream of ongoing fires and could be shoved into the
east slopes but thinking a good portion of idaho and eastern wa
will get continue to see drastic improvements in comparison to the
current hazardous conditions. Sb
Wednesday: the warmest day of the week is expected to be Wednesday
with lowland highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The slow departure
of a shearing upper trough through southern idaho will provide the
camas prairie and the blue mountains with a small chance for
showers and thunderstorms, but the remainder of the inland
northwest will continue to be dry. Height falls along the coast of
british columbia are expected to reverse our surface pressure
gradient by the afternoon leading to a change in wind direction.

The east or northeast winds of Monday and Tuesday will transition
to our more typical south or southwest winds (5 to 15 mph range) by
Wednesday afternoon. Smoke will likely be the most concentrated
along the east slopes of the cascades and the okanogan valley with
our expected wind regime on Wednesday. By the evening, increasing
onshore flow should promote westerly winds through the cascade
gaps which may push smoke into the columbia basin and northeast
washington during the evening and overnight hours.

Thursday: the medium range models continue to forecast a big
pattern change Thursday into the weekend. An upper level trough is
forecast to form over western canada leading to several days of
cooler onshore flow. Thursday will be a transition day with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for most lowland areas. West
or southwest winds should increase into the afternoon and early
evening with 10 to 20 mph winds across the palouse, west plains,
and columbia basin. Gusts will likely peak during the evening in
our typical cascade gap spots like wenatchee, vantage, and entiat
(25 to 30 mph).

Friday through Monday: the GFS and ECMWF continue to forecast
cooler and breezy weather Friday through the weekend. Higher
humidity will also accompany the trough as marine air spills
across the cascades into eastern washington and north idaho. Air
quality should be much improved courtesy of "cleaner" west winds.

Keep your fingers crossed. The GFS and ECMWF are forecasting a
deep and slow moving low in the Sunday Monday time frame.

Hopefully mentioning rain won't jinx things, but the models are
wet over the cascade crest, the mountains along the canadian
border, and the idaho panhandle. Even if the low happens to miss
the inland northwest early next week, there will be a good chance
for rain in british columbia where a lot of our smoke is
originating. Gkoch

Aviation
06z tafs: visibilities should improve over the next 12 hours at
the TAF sites as northeast winds strengthen over the area.VFR
conditions are expected by about 18z for most locations. Winds
will be strongest at kcoe and down the okanogan valley. Winds will
quickly subside during the evening hours on Monday. Rj

Preliminary point temps pops
Spokane 79 58 86 58 89 60 10 0 0 0 0 0
coeur d'alene 78 54 85 55 87 57 10 0 0 0 0 0
pullman 81 53 84 55 87 56 30 10 0 0 10 0
lewiston 88 60 91 61 92 62 40 10 0 10 10 10
colville 82 52 90 51 91 53 0 0 0 0 0 0
sandpoint 77 50 84 49 86 51 10 0 0 0 0 0
kellogg 74 50 82 53 86 54 10 0 0 0 0 0
moses lake 88 59 90 56 92 57 0 0 0 0 0 0
wenatchee 87 63 89 63 92 63 0 0 0 0 0 0
omak 87 59 91 59 95 60 0 0 0 0 0 0

Otx watches warnings advisories
Id... Red flag warning from 10 am this morning to 6 pm pdt this
evening for northern and central idaho panhandle (zone
101).

Wa... Red flag warning from 10 am this morning to 6 pm pdt this
evening for east washington northern columbia basin (zone
673)-east washington okanogan methow valleys (zone 684)-
east washington palouse and spokane area (zone 674).



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coeur d'Alene Airport - Pappy Boyington Field, ID20 mi69 minN 131.75 miFair with Haze62°F45°F54%1016.4 hPa
Sandpoint, Sandpoint Airport, ID22 mi70 minNNE 15 G 194.00 miFair with Haze64°F41°F43%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from COE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE10N10NE10NE9N9N7NE9NE8N7N6N8NE6NE4NE6NE5NE7NE6E5NE9N10N11N13N12
1 day agoCalmCalmS6S433W6--W5W6CalmCalmE5CalmNE3E3NE3NE5NE3E5E6NE6E7NE7
2 days agoS45E5W63SE5Calm33SW6SW8SW3W6S4S4SE5S4CalmSE5S6SE9S6S8S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Spokane, WA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Spokane, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.