Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Stevens, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 4:48PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 9:47 PM PST (05:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:11AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 832 Pm Pst Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Tonight..SE wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely in the evening then showers likely after midnight.
Thu..S wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..S wind 15 to 25 kt rising to 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..S wind 20 to 30 kt easing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Sat..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less.
Mon..Variable wind to 10 kt becoming se. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 832 Pm Pst Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A deep and expansive low centered near 50n 134w will fill as it moves slowly east toward the northern tip of vancouver island Friday night. Tight pressure gradients associated with this low will give gales to the coastal waters and small craft advisory conditions to the inland waters tonight through Thursday night. Combined seas in excess of 25 to 30 feet will affect the coastal waters late tonight through Thursday night. A weak ridge will build into the waters on Saturday. Additional fronts will reach the waters Sunday through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Stevens, WA
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location: 48, -122.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 180455
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
900 pm pst Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis A cold front will move east of the cascades this
evening. Large waves generated by a deep low pressure offshore will
impact the washington coast late tonight through Thursday evening.

Thursday through Saturday will be showery with an upper trough over
the area. Additional fronts will move through the area Sunday and
around Tuesday night.

Short term
Coastal flood update... .Strong southwest winds offshore is
generating a large and energetic swell that will reach the coastline
late tonight. Buoy 46005 that sits about 250 nm W of the mouth of
the columbia river reported seas of 41 ft at 17 seconds at 7 pm this
evening, and about 32-34 ft of the sea is swell energy that will
propagate all the way to the coastline between 28 and 30 ft at about
18 or 19 seconds.

A coastal flood warning is in effect for the coast. This sort of
coastal flooding mainly affects the coastal communities as waves
run far up beyond where they usually do. The high seas will
combine with tides that are running about 1.5 ft above predicted
values and about 1 ft above the value that usually produces
saltwater flooding in places like ocean shores and westport.

Larger waves will likely crash over over breakwaters and jetties
and collect in low lying areas.

General weather update... A deep sub 970 mb surface low outside 130w
tonight will stall off the b.C. Coast Thursday and weaken through
Friday. Southeast pressure gradients will persist tonight into
Thursday and produce breezy winds, and possibly locally windy at
times on the north coast north interior. The main front is already
through most the interior and will push east of the cascades over
the next couple hours. The strongest winds have likely peaked and
should ease a bit over the next couple hours. A few gusts to 40 or
45 mph could occur, mainly on the north coast tonight and mostly
associated with thunderstorm squalls in the area. Models do show
near or sub zero li's with some marginal CAPE which explains the
lightning activity around the north coast. Models maintain this
instability through Thursday, so the forecast will be updated this
evening to reflect a chance of thunderstorms. Typically,
thunderstorm squalls in these patterns produce brief heavy rain,
numerous lightning, and brief gusty winds.

Colder air aloft arriving tonight and Thursday will drop snow levels
down to 3000 feet later tonight and Thursday. A couple inches of
snow has already fallen at stevens as the front passed. However,
precipitation rates will drop off behind the front later tonight and
Thursday. Higher passes and ski resorts above pass level could
potentially get 3 to 6 inches or locally higher amounts. But the
showery pattern does not seem to warrant an advisory for snow given
the spotty accumulations. Persons planning travel through passes
should still call 5-1-1 for road conditions.

Another frontal wave embedded in the relatively cold air mass will
move through the region Friday. This system could produce several
more inches of snow, possibly even down to the lower passes. The
westerly flow is not very strong which may limit orographics, but
the cold air mass in place should give decent ratios for another 3
to 6 or more inches. This system could warrant an advisory, stay
tuned. Mercer albrecht

Long term Previous discussion... A frontal system will bring a
shot of rain late Saturday night and Sunday along with some breezy
to windy conditions. Showers will linger into Monday but they should
be tapering or even ending by Tuesday as a weak upper ridge builds
over the area. Another front should reach the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday for more rain. Schneider

Hydrology A wet frontal system this weekend could push the
skokomish river in mason county above flood stage around Sunday.

Otherwise, river flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

Aviation A cold front has moved across the area this evening
and is now moving east of the cascades. Strong southwest flow at
the surface and aloft will continue tonight through Thursday. The
air mass is moist and unstable with numerous showers expected
across the area. Thunderstorms are possible at times along the
coast. Ceilings and visibilities will be variable withVFR to MVFR
conditions between showers and conditions locally dropping to ifr
in heavier showers. Albrecht
ksea... Expect showers with gusty south winds tonight through
Thursday. South winds generally 12-15 knots with gusts 22-25
knots. Ceilings 050 will drop to 2500 ft at times in heavier
showers. Visibilities p6sm falling to 3-5sm in heavier showers.

Albrecht

Marine A deep low centered near 50n 134w will gradually fill as
it slowly moves to the north tip of vancouver island early Friday.

Strong southwest flow will continue through Thursday night with
gales over the coastal waters and widespread small craft advisory
conditions over the inland waters through Thursday night.

Conditions will slowly improve late Thursday night and Friday.

A weak ridge of high pressure will brush the area on Saturday.

Then a series of rather strong fronts will move across the waters
Sunday through early next week. Albrecht

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Coastal flood warning from 4 am to 10 pm pst Thursday for
central coast-north coast.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough bar until 4 am pst Friday for
grays harbor bar.

Gale warning until 10 pm pst Thursday for coastal waters from
cape flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters
from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-
coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10
to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Friday for east entrance
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters
including the san juan islands.

Gale warning until 10 pm pst this evening for east entrance u.S.

Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters
including the san juan islands.

Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Friday for admiralty inlet-
puget sound and hood canal-west entrance u.S. Waters strait
of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46120 23 mi48 min WSW 19 53°F 1006 hPa50°F
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 30 mi48 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 52°F 49°F1007.6 hPa (-1.3)
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 30 mi48 min SSE 16 G 18 51°F 1006.8 hPa (-1.2)49°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 36 mi48 min ESE 9.9 G 21 52°F 47°F1004.6 hPa (-0.5)
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 38 mi78 min S 21 53°F 1004 hPa46°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 46 mi48 min SSE 23 G 27 50°F 1003.2 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Seattle, Puget Sound, WA, WA
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NE1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA12 mi52 minSSE 20 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy51°F46°F86%1006.4 hPa
Everett Snohomish County, WA12 mi55 minSE 1510.00 miLight Rain50°F48°F93%1006.2 hPa

Wind History from PAE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E6S4455S7E7SE9SE10E8
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1 day agoSE6SE7S7SE12E9
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S11SE9S3SE9SE6SE76E6
2 days agoE56E5E7E5NE4E3CalmE4SE7SE85SE85E6E6E8SE635E6SE11
G14
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G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Everett, Washington
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Everett
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:35 AM PST     11.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:46 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:12 PM PST     6.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:01 PM PST     9.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 PM PST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.51.23.66.38.810.611.611.6119.98.57.36.877.78.69.49.79.3863.61.3-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for President Point, 1.5 mile E of, Washington Current
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President Point
Click for MapFlood direction 203 true
Ebb direction 24 true

Thu -- 12:16 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:49 AM PST     0.53 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:51 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:46 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM PST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:39 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:36 PM PST     0.10 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:45 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:41 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:29 PM PST     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.20.50.50.50.30.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.10.1-0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.