Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hat Island, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:24PM Thursday November 23, 2017 7:58 PM PST (03:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:32AMMoonset 8:55PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 300 Pm Pst Thu Nov 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm pst this evening...
Tonight..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Fri..S wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Sat..SE wind 10 to 20 kt easing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon.
Sat night..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun..S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S wind to 10 kt becoming se 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 300 Pm Pst Thu Nov 23 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow behind a front will decrease Friday morning. The next front will stall off vancouver island Friday with southerly winds increasing over the coastal waters Friday afternoon. A stronger system will impact the area on Saturday night into Sunday with gales possible.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hat Island, WA
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location: 48, -122.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 232327
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
327 pm pst Thu nov 23 2017

Synopsis An upper level trough crossing western washington will
maintain scattered showers tonight. A cold front will stall over
vancouver island Friday and Friday night, which will produce a
little light rain over mainly the north part of western
washington. Another frontal system is expected to bring more rain
later Saturday into Sunday morning. A large upper level trough
will cross the area Sunday night and Monday with scattered
showers. This active weather pattern should continue into mid
next week.

Short term Radar and satellite imagery show this mornings cold
front moving over the cascades, so the current episode of heavy
rain is essentially over. Visible imagery shows open cellular
cumulus just offshore, which will move inland tonight for
scattered showers. Today's rain combined with the heavy rain this
past Tuesday have pushed many rivers up above flood stage.

Also on track is the cold front extending W from the central b.C.

Coast, and moving S toward vancouver island. After tonight's
scattered showers this front should be close enough as it becomes
quasi- stationary over vancouver island to bring some light rain
to the area. The best chance of rain will be over the N part of w
wa, especially the coast and mountains. The rain will probably
reach a little farther S over W wa on Friday, then recede back
north a little Friday night as the flow aloft over the region
becomes more southwesterly. This rain will not be hydrologically
significant so it won't impact the current flooding.

A deepening large upper level trough well offshore will shift the
upper level flow over W wa back to a moist SW flow aloft. This
will allow a system embedded in the strong SW flow aloft to bring
widespread rain to the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning. The GFS and ECMWF have been a little inconsistent lately
on the details, so how much rain falls and during what periods is
still a little uncertain. This period of rain could be a little
heavier but with the big break between wet systems it is unlikely
to cause renewed flooding, although there is always a chance that
the skokomish river will flood.

Snow levels will lower to 3500 to 4000 feet tonight through
Saturday, but precipitation over the cascade passes will be light
enough for snowfall to remain below advisory thresholds. Snow
levels will rise back to 5000-7000 feet Saturday night and Sunday
morning as that next system from the SW arrives. Kam

Long term The GFS and ECMWF both agree that the large offshore
upper level trough will move E across W wa Sunday afternoon
through Monday. This will be a cool showery period. The models
still show a warm front reaching the area Monday night, but have
been inconsistent with this feature for the past several model
runs. So at this point the Tuesday-Thursday period still looks
like an active weather period, but confidence is low regarding how
it will evolve. Kam

Aviation A trough will shift east tonight with a break in the
steady rain across western washington through Friday. The next front
and associated trough will stall off vancouver island Friday.

Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft. Air mass stable and
generally moist, with some drying in the mid upper levels tonight.

Ksea... Rain shadow off the olympics will keep most residual shower
activity to the north and south of the ksea kbfi terminals. The
lower air mass will remain somewhat moist and may settle into MVFR
cigs after midnight as the air mass stabilizes. However, stratus is
not expected to fill in and become widespread and periods ofVFR can
be expected into Friday morning. Southwest wind 10-12 kt W gusts 22
kt easing late this evening. Dtm

Marine Onshore flow will increase this evening then begin to east
later tonight and Friday morning. Marginal small craft winds are
expected for most waters, especially through midnight. A lull in
winds will develop later tonight and Friday morning.

The next front will stall off vancouver island on Friday. Gradients
will gradually rise over the coastal waters with small craft
conditions possible by afternoon through Saturday.

A stronger frontal system will lift north outside the wa coastal
waters late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The front
should eventually swing through the coastal waters and weaken. Gale
force S SE winds are possible over the coastal waters, entrances to
the strait, and north inland waters. There is significant
uncertainty on how this system develops and tracks. Forecasts should
be monitored for changes. Dtm

Hydrology Hydrologically significant rainfall appears to have
ended, though light rain continues to fall, mainly in the mountains.

Rivers that are flooding now are responding to rainfall over the
past three days, which was copious in the mountains. The north
cascades received 4-9 inches, the central and south cascades got
3-6 inches, and the olympic peninsula got 4-10 inches. Upstream
reaches of rivers are receding now, though some downstream reaches
have a way to go until they crest. A cooling trend is forecast--the
snow level was about 6000 feet this morning and will fall to around
4000 feet this afternoon.

Here is a summary of river flooding, from north to south:
the nooksack river at north cedarville fell below the moderate flood
stage this morning, and will fall below minor flood stage tonight.

The nooksack at ferndale is still rising and is forecast to have
minor flooding on Friday.

The skagit river is experiencing major flooding. At concrete, it
will remain a couple of feet above the major flood stage for a few
more hours this evening, then slowly recede through Friday. At mount
vernon the river is forecast to go above the major flood stage
tonight, then recede below flood stage Saturday.

Flooding has ended on the main fork of the stillaguamish river
and the flood warning has ended.

The skykomish river near gold bar rose above moderate flood stage
this afternoon and will fall below moderate flood stage this
evening. The snoqualmie river near snoqualmie falls and near
carnation will experience minor flooding tonight and Friday. The
tolt river crested below flood stage twice today. Further
downstream, moderate flooding is occurring or forecast on the
snohomish river.

In the southern part of the state, the white river near r street in
auburn and the nisqually river near national are having minor
flooding. The cowlitz river at randle will just touch the moderate
flood stage this evening. In the olympics, the satsop and skokomish
rivers will continue to have minor flooding.

A flood watch remains in effect through tonight, though the threat
of further flooding has receded.

For the current list of flood watches and warnings, please check:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 25 mi59 min S 21 G 23 51°F 1012.4 hPa (+1.3)46°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 28 mi47 min Calm G 1 49°F 50°F1012.3 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 34 mi89 min SSW 4.1 49°F 1011 hPa48°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 38 mi59 min ESE 6 G 8.9 49°F 1011.7 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Everett Snohomish County, WA6 mi66 minSSE 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy48°F45°F89%1012.3 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA13 mi63 minSSE 510.00 miLight Rain48°F46°F93%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from PAE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE19
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S13SE9SE12SE15S15S11S7NW4NW7N5CalmCalmE5E5E5S11S14
1 day agoSE13
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2 days agoE5E5E7E8E6E7E5E7E8E6E4E7E4E5SE5SE5CalmSE6E10
G18
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G17
SE11SE14SE16

Tide / Current Tables for Everett, Washington
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Everett
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:09 AM PST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:27 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM PST     11.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:31 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:34 PM PST     6.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:00 PM PST     8.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:55 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.30.11.73.96.48.610.311.211.210.79.78.67.6777.37.78.18.387.15.53.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Gamble Bay, Washington Current
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Port Gamble Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:45 AM PST     1.32 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:28 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:32 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM PST     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:42 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:24 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:39 PM PST     0.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:55 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:57 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:53 PM PST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.10.511.31.31.20.90.4-0-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.100-0-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.