Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blyn, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 4:29PM Saturday November 18, 2017 7:42 AM PST (15:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 5:11PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 252 Am Pst Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am pst this morning through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Sunday afternoon...
Today..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 25 to 35 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A slight chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..S wind 25 to 35 kt rising to 30 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain in the morning then rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..Variable wind 5 to 15 kt becoming nw to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S wind to 10 kt becoming se 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 252 Am Pst Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A cold front will move southeast along the british columbia coast through tonight, then move through the washington waters on Sunday. The front will be preceded by increasing south to southeast wind, with gales expected over much of the waters before frontal passage later Sunday. A high pressure center will pass across the waters on Monday. A strong warm front will push northward through the waters on Tuesday. A strong low pressure center should move north well offshore to near haida gwaii on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blyn, WA
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location: 48.07, -122.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 181240 cca
afdsew
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service seattle wa
440 am pst Sat nov 18 2017
corrected a couple of minor typos.

Synopsis Weak high pressure aloft will prevail through
tonight. Expect a pacific storm to approach the area during the
day Sunday. The cold front will sweep across the region during
the late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening time period.

Expect locally strong winds and heavy precipitation ahead of and
with the front. Weak high pressure aloft will return on Monday.

Short term
There were scattered showers over the CWA at this time. Expect the
showers to decrease in coverage this morning, becoming confined to
the far northwest part of the CWA by this afternoon.

Meanwhile, weak high pressure aloft will prevail over the region
through tonight. The ridge aloft will weaken further early Sunday,
allowing an upper level trof and associated cold front to approach
from the northwest. The models were a little slower with this
system than the previous runs; therefore, it appeared that the
southeast part of the CWA will probably not see any precipitation
until Sunday afternoon. The front will sweep across the area
during the late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening time
frame. Expect locally strong southerly winds over parts of the
coast and northwest interior ahead of and with the front. A wind
advisory will probably be needed for some of these zones for
Sunday.

Concerning snowfall: the north cascades will remain in the colder
air throughout the day Sunday; therefore, the precipitation will
fall as snow above the 3000 foot level. The mount baker ski area
could pick up about a foot of snow during the day Sunday;
therefore, a winter storm watch was issued for whatcom and skagit
counties. The snow will taper off over this area behind the cold
front Sunday evening.

Locally heavy precipitation will continue on the cascades of
pierce and lewis counties as the snow levels fall Sunday night;
therefore, the crystal mountain ski area and the southwest slopes
of mount rainier could receive up to about a foot of snow Sunday
night before the precip tapers off. Therefore, a winter storm
watch was issued for this area.

Expect advisory snowfall amounts (5-10 inches) in the cascades of
snohomish and king counties Sunday night. Stevens pass may pick
up about 10 inches of new snow.

The GFS and ECMWF solutions were in better agreement as far as
Monday was concerned. The canadian model was the outlier. It looks
as though a warm front will approach the region from the south
during the day. Much of the CWA will be dry on Monday.

Long term
Much of this period appeared mild, wet, and unsettled. Temps are
anticipated to be above normal during this period. Expect locally
windy periods, with the possibility of flooding on some area
rivers. Confidence in the details was not high for this period.

Aviation A flat upper ridge centered over western washington
early this morning will shift east into the idaho panhandle late
tonight. A strong and wet cold front will sag southeast through
british columbia today then will shift southward through western
washington on Sunday. Moderate westerly flow aloft. The air mass
is moist and somewhat stable and will dry somewhat at lower levels
today. Deep moisture will shift southward into the area late
tonight into Sunday morning.

Isolated convective showers over the coastal waters and extending
into the interior from about kshn southward continue to weaken and
diminish in coverage early this morning. Conditions are variable
with pockets of MVFR or ifr ceilings and other areas seeing
ceilings 035-045. Expect the lower level moisture to decrease this
morning leaving just mid and high level clouds above about fl100.

Cigs will fall to 008-015 after 10z tonight through Sunday
morning as rain ahead of the incoming front shifts southeast into
the area. Albrecht
ksea... South wind 8-11 knots. CIGS 030-035 this morning then above
fl100 this afternoon and evening. CIGS falling to 010-015 after
10z Sunday. Albrecht

Marine A strong cold front extending wsw from the queen
charlotte sound into the pacific will slowly drag southeast down
the british columbia coastline today then will push southeastward
through the coastal and inland waters on Sunday. Winds will
increase gradually from north to south through tonight with gales
expected over all of the waters except for puget sound and hood
canal and the central strait of juan de fuca late tonight into
Sunday ahead of the front. Winds will rapidly ease behind the
front later Sunday into Sunday night.

High pressure will bring light winds to the waters on Monday. A
strong warm front will push northward through the waters on
Tuesday. A strong low pressure center developing well offshore
will push northeast into haida gwaii on Wednesday. Albrecht

Hydrology
The models were not as wet with the Sunday system as the previous
runs; however, the forecast rainfall amount for the skokomish
river basin was still enough to drive the uniquely flood-prone
skokomish river near or slightly above flood stage Sunday night.

Beyond Sunday, the models did not exactly agree on the details.

However, it still appears that much of this period will be wet.

The snow levels will be atypically high (generally at or above 8k
feet) for this time of the year Tuesday through early Thursday.

This means that the precip will fall primarily as rain in the
mountains. It looks like this firehose will be a bit different in
that instead of staying on for x amount of time, it will be more
of an on and off type of deal. Thus, expect occasional heavy rain
in the mountains and on the coast. Although rainfall amounts may
not be significant for any given time period, the cumulative
rainfall for the Tuesday through Thursday period will probably be
enough to drive some rivers above flood stage, not just the
skokomish river.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Flood watch in effect for mason county from Sunday morning
through Sunday evening.

Winter storm watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday
night for cascades of pierce and lewis counties above 4500
feet.

Winter storm watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon
for cascades of whatcom and skagit counties above 3500 feet.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal
waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-
northern inland waters including the san juan islands.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 3 pm pst Sunday for
coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10
to 60 nm-northern inland waters including the san juan
islands.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm pst this evening for coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to
60 nm.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to noon pst Sunday for
coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60
nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10
to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to noon pst Sunday for
coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-
west entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 3 am pst Sunday for coastal waters
from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-east
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Gale warning from 3 am to noon pst Sunday for coastal waters
from james island to point grenville out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 3 am pst Sunday
for coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater
out 10 nm.

Gale warning from 3 am to 3 pm pst Sunday for admiralty inlet-
coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out
10 nm-east entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for west
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 3 am pst Sunday for admiralty inlet.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 9 pm pst Sunday
for puget sound and hood canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 18 mi43 min SE 18 G 20 46°F 1023.9 hPa (-0.4)
46120 35 mi35 min W 14 49°F 1024.8 hPa43°F
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 36 mi73 min SSE 11 47°F 1024 hPa42°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 38 mi43 min S 16 G 17 48°F 1025.9 hPa (+0.0)41°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA25 mi47 minSSE 1110.00 miOvercast49°F39°F71%1025.5 hPa

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW16S6S11S8S8SW7SW7W5SW3CalmCalmE5SE3E8E8E9E10E9SE10SE9SE9SE8SE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Discovery Bay, Washington
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:42 AM PST     New Moon
Sat -- 04:22 AM PST     7.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM PST     5.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:18 PM PST     7.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:30 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:11 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:33 PM PST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.545.777.77.67.16.35.65.35.35.76.36.97.37.26.65.33.61.70.2-0.6-0.60.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kamen Point, 1.3 miles SW of, Washington Current
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Kamen Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:31 AM PST     0.51 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:42 AM PST     New Moon
Sat -- 04:31 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:18 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM PST     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:49 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:13 PM PST     0.20 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:58 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:30 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:11 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:40 PM PST     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:45 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.50.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.400.10.20.2-0-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.50.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.