Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blyn, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 11:44 PM PDT (06:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:07AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 902 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..NW wind 20 to 30 kt easing to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Showers likely in the evening then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW wind to 10 kt becoming ne after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 15 kt in the morning becoming light. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun..Variable wind 5 to 15 kt becoming nw 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft.
Mon..Variable wind to 10 kt becoming s. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 902 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Strong onshore flow behind a cold front gradually diminishing tonight with more moderate onshore flow expected Thursday. A ridge of high pres will result in lighter winds Friday. Another front will arrive Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blyn, WA
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location: 48.07, -122.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 300414
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
914 pm pdt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis An upper level shortwave trough will move across western
washington tonight which will keep showers and a puget sound
convergence zone going. Onshore flow will gradually weaken allowing
breezy winds to diminish overnight. An upper level ridge will begin
building over the region on Thursday with the chance of showers
decreasing through the day and a few Sun breaks developing in the
afternoon. The upper level ridge will bring partly sunny skies and
warmer temperatures on Friday. A weak warm front may produce some
light rain Friday night and Saturday morning followed by a trough
with some showers on Sunday. Another front could arrive early next
week.

Short term 830 pm radar shows showers over the interior have
diminished for the time being with the most action in a small
convergence zone stretching from S of port townsend across the sound
to around marysville in snohomish county. Showers are still active
along the coast as westerly flow aloft continues pushing them
ashore. IR imagery shows one more weak cloud band offshore along
roughly 128w at 03z/8 pm associated with an upper level trough axis.

The models seem a little fast with the trough axis which they have a
little ways ahead of the cloud band. It may not matter too much
since the portion of the band that should reach the wa coast is
pretty weak and will probably only provide slight organization to
the showers. It doesn't look like there is very much shower activity
farther offshore behind the band so showers should begin tapering
off late tonight.

Last issue is that the models have rough consensus that the
convergence zone will slide south over mainly inland king county
after midnight as low level winds veer from W to nw. Should
dissipate by Thursday morning.

An upper level ridge offshore with modest amplitude will approach
the area on Thursday then move overhead on Friday. Dry northerly
flow aloft will increase over W wa on Thursday allowing the chance
of showers to diminish through the day. There is still lots of low
level moisture around and will be further supplemented by continuing
low level onshore flow. Low level westerly flow aloft will keep
clouds banked up against the cascades. So it looks like skies will
remain cloudy through Thursday morning with possibly a few sun
breaks developing during the afternoon. Low level moisture should
diminish from the W so the coast and N interior have a better chance
at sunshine than interior areas like puget sound and the SW interior.

The upper level ridge axis will move over W wa on Friday along with
the surface ridge. Unfortunately, westerly flow aloft offshore
upstream of the ridge will be pushing high level moisture up to the
ridge axis. This will diminish the sunshine over the area on Friday
with the cirrus filtering or blocking the solar insolation much of
the time. Still, compared to the soggy last couple of months any
sunshine is welcome.

The GFS and ECMWF agree that a weak warm front will move across W wa
Friday night and Saturday morning. This front doesn't look very
exciting, probably just some light rain and possibly some local
breezy winds. Kam

Long term Previous discussion from the 330 pm afd... The gfs/ecmwf
solutions are a bit closer together today and show a fairly typical
spring like pattern Sunday through the middle of next week. A trough
will brush the area Sunday with a chance of light rain or showers.

Again, this will not be a big rain producer but should bring some
cooler temperatures and clouds. There is a good chance for a break
in the rain sometime Sunday night through Monday night but there is
still enough uncertainty on timing of any brief ridging to keep some
chance pops in the forecast. Another system arrives around Tuesday
and Wednesday. Neither of these systems look very wet or cold, just
typical systems this time of year with some clouds, light spotty
rain, and near average temperatures. Mercer

Aviation Southwesterly flow aloft this evening will become
northwesterly late tonight as an upper level trough passes, then
northerly on Thursday. At the surface, strong onshore flow behind an
exiting front will gradually ease tonight but remain moderate on
Thursday. The air mass is moist and slightly unstable with scattered
showers.

Cigs this evening a mix ofVFR or MVFR over W wa... With pae proving
to be a bit of an outlier thanks to convergence zone that has set up
there as CIGS there sit on the MVFR/ifr division. Not helping that
rainfall at times is reducing vis to around 2 sm. For locations
outside of said convergence zone... Showers over the olympic
peninsula will result in MVFR conditions for locations under such
showers. That activity is expected to move eastward... Spreading over
the area as the upper trough makes its way through... Making the
remainder of the area susceptible to CIGS falling to MVFR during the
overnight hours. Chb/smr
ksea... Current obs compared to current radar suggestVFR to high end
MVFR conditions to remain in place for the evening and into the
overnight hours. Should see CIGS fall down into low end MVFR by 12z
early Thu morning. These low CIGS along with threat of showers will
persist at least into mid to late morning before conditions dry and
cigs lift for Thu afternoon. SW sustained winds 12-17 kts with gusts
to 25 kts still possible this evening and overnight... Subsiding to
around 10 kts early Thu afternoon. Smr

Marine Moderating onshore flow tonight in wake of exiting front.

Inherited headlines look good to leave up until their expiration.

While obs currently falling below thresholds for said headlines... It
still remains very borderline and would not surprise at all if obs
were to nudge upward into criteria. Gale warning for central and
east strait will be the first one to fall at 11 pm pdt... And will be
issuing follow-up SCA with the evening forecast package. Onshore
flow will persist on Thursday, with small craft advisory strength
winds over most waters. Gradients will weaken Thursday night, and a
ridge of high pres will give lighter winds on Friday. Another front
will arrive Saturday. Chb/smr

Hydrology After the recent heavy rain over the olympics the
skokomish river remains a little above flood stage. It will continue
to recede slowly tonight and Thursday morning. Latest estimate is
that it will drop below flood stage around 9 am Thursday morning. No
other really strong and wet systems are expected for the next week
so flooding is not expected on area rivers during the next 7 days.

The heavy rain did increase the threat of landslides across W wa
again. However, the light showers expected tonight and on Thursday
will not have much effect on soil saturation. The current statement
highlighting the landslide potential will be allowed to expire late
tonight. Kam

Sew watches/warnings/advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Thursday for admiralty
inlet- coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to
60 nm-coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10
nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60
nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm-coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10 to
60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater
out 10 nm-northern inland waters including the san juan islands-
west entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory for rough bar until 11 am pdt Thursday for
grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Thursday for central u.S.

Waters strait of juan de fuca-east entrance u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca.

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for central u.S.

Waters strait of juan de fuca-east entrance u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Thursday for puget sound and
hood canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 9 mi44 min SW 8 G 11 47°F 47°F1016.3 hPa (+2.4)
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 18 mi44 min SW 16 G 23 46°F 1014.7 hPa (+2.5)
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 22 mi54 min W 21 G 27 47°F 47°F4 ft1014.4 hPa (+1.7)42°F
PTAW1 - 9444090 - Port Angeles, WA 28 mi68 min 7 G 19 47°F 48°F1015.2 hPa
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 33 mi68 min WSW 7 G 9.9 46°F 47°F1014.8 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 36 mi74 min W 12 46°F 1015 hPa41°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 38 mi44 min S 8 G 9.9 46°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.9)42°F
46118 49 mi59 min SE 3.9 48°F 1014.3 hPa40°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island, Naval Air Station, WA25 mi48 minW 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy48°F39°F71%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
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S12SE13S12NW5W7SW6SW5CalmCalmS9SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Discovery Bay, Washington
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:41 AM PDT     8.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:15 PM PDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 PM PDT     7.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:08 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.63.24.35.76.97.887.464.12.20.70.10.41.42.94.66.17.27.57.16.25.14.1

Tide / Current Tables for Kamen Point, 1.3 miles SW of, Washington Current
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Kamen Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:46 AM PDT     0.39 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:03 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM PDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:16 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:28 PM PDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:16 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:58 PM PDT     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:08 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.500.20.40.40.30-0.5-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.9-0.20.20.40.50.50.30.1-0.3-0.7-1-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.