Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warm Beach, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:32PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 12:32 AM PST (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:08PMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 846 Pm Pst Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening then rain likely after midnight.
Wed..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Wed night..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft.
Fri..Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft.
PZZ100 846 Pm Pst Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak front will cross the area this evening into Wednesday with small craft advisory winds for most waters through early Wednesday. A second weak system will then clip the area on Thursday. Offshore flow will return this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warm Beach, WA
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location: 48.14, -122.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 140534
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
934 pm pst Tue nov 13 2018

Update
Weather is much more active tonight than it was 24 hours ago.

Analysis of the synoptic setup this evening reveals tight SW flow
aloft with numerous perturbations rotating around a broader scale
low across the gulf of alaska. The most impressive shortwave
activity in the vicinity of western washington appears to be
across bc. A sfc frontal system can also be noted approaching the
western washington coastline, with widespread shower activity
located along and ahead of it. Mrms and local radar imagery
confirm precip across the coast, into northern portion of the
peninsula and extending into skagit and whatcom counties.

For the remainder of tonight, forecast seems to be largely on
track. Some forcing in the right entrance region of weak jet
streak across bc associated with aforementioned shortwave
activity along with WAA at 925-850mb will help sustain rain
showers as they move E se. Timing looks good with activity
expected to push east of puget sound around midnight or so. Some
upper level dynamics will be lost as the upper level features move
east but given the sfc frontal boundary, lower level forcing
should suffice to keep scattered rain showers in the area for the
night and into much of Wednesday. A reinforcing, stronger
shortwave trough will move just north of the area, helping sustain
larger scale lift.

Evidence of a quick break in the activity looks probable
Wednesday night into very early Thursday. The mid and upper flow
will be transitioning from weakly quasi-zonal to nwly where the
next shortwave can plunge through the flow towards the region.

Despite the storm track becoming slightly displaced to the NE of
the area, shower activity will increase again thru the day on
Thursday with weak height falls noted. Pacific ridging still looks
to build in for the end of the week and into the weekend, tho
some light showers could linger thru the first half of Friday. See
previous discussion below for more detailed info.

Kovacik

Prev discussion issued 326 pm pst Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis Weather over western washington will transition today
as high pressure aloft weakens while a warm front begins to enter
the area. A secondary front will keep conditions wet Thursday and
into Friday. Upper level ridging is expected to resume over the
weekend allowing for dry conditions as well as overnight and
morning fog. A front may approach the region early next week with
a chance of rain.

Short term Current satellite and the old trusty window show
high clouds continuing to push eastward in advance of the
approaching warm front. Current radar shows most of the rain with
this front is still predominantly over the coastal waters
still... Although a stray shower or two look like they may be
trying to sneak in ahead of everyone else. That said... Forecast
continues to look in good shape as models agree that this system
will steadily move eastward... Likely bringing more steady rainfall
to locations east of puget sound this evening. Once it gets
here... Precip is expected to remain over the area throughout the
day on Wednesday.

Models suggests a brief break in the action Wednesday night and into
Thursday morning before a secondary system Thursday afternoon and
evening... Tapering off by midday Friday. Timing for the start of
this second round of precip is lining up as models are falling into
agreement... But the usual biases typical to each model show
themselves regarding solutions pertaining to the cessation of
rainfall... The GFS ending things by late Friday morning while the
ecmwf keeps it around through the afternoon... Ending things in the
evening. Models remain agreed that another upper level ridge
building over the pacific will allow dry conditions to return
Friday. Smr

Long term Models keep the upper level ridge in place for much
of the weekend... Although the GFS kind of dirties things up a bit
by introducing a shortwave disturbance into the ridge Sunday. It
does not show any precip with this feature... So will be something
to keep an eye on in future solutions. This minor feature
aside... Models once again fall prey to their typical dispositions
as the GFS maintains a dry forecast into Wednesday while the ecmwf
brings in a frontal system late Monday night into Tuesday. As has
been the case for forecasting this fall... Have opted to split the
difference in the model solutions and went with slight to low-end
chance pops for Monday into Tuesday with better chances for
Wednesday. However... Since this discrepancy falls in the days 7-9
time frame... To read any degree of confidence into the forecast
that far out would be utter folly. Smr

Aviation Broken to overcast mid and high level clouds continue
for sites east of the rain activity, whereas several sites in or
in the vicinity of the rain are beginning to see lower cigs
mainly MVFR . Expect this trend to work east thru the night into
Wednesday morning as an eastward moving cold front pushes the
showers across the region. Does not appear there will be much
recovery in the CIGS tomorrow as rain showers are expected to
continue. Winds will remain southerly thru this cycle.

Kovacik
ksea... Mid and high clouds to continue thru about midnight before
ceilings begin to drop to MVFR as rain moves in. Rain will then
continue for most of Wednesday with little recovery in cigs.

Increasing winds at 850mb could allow for some wind gusts
Wednesday morning and afternoon despite little mixing. Winds will
remain from the S SE thru the cycle sustained at generally
8-15kts.

Kovacik

Marine Light offshore flow still resides across western
washington this evening as high pressure exists to the east of the
local area and low pressure resides offshore. A frontal system
will be moving inland over the next 12-24hrs. Winds are expected
to continue to increase ahead of the front where current SCA for
pretty much all waters except the central strait remain in place
and unchanged. Will need to monitor potential to extend SCA for
the inland waters with the next package update given lingering
enhanced winds from sfc-850mb before fropa. As the front pushes
east of the area, gradients should relax from west to east with
the transition to onshore flow, though could see winds pick up to
near small craft for portions of outer coastal waters and
northern inland waters on Thursday.

Kovacik

Hydrology A frontal system will bring rain at times to most of
western washington later this afternoon through late Wednesday.

The initial warm front will produce moderately strong southwest
flow aloft which will enhance rain amounts in the mountains. Meso
models indicate 1-2 inches at most over roughly a 36 hour period.

This amounts to a nice rain, but not much more than that. Area
rivers will see a bit of a bump up from the storms. Bottom line is
that flooding is not expected on area rivers through the next 7
days. Mercer jbb

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 2 am pst Wednesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm-coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater
10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater out 10 nm-west entrance u.S. Waters strait of
juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 10 am pst Wednesday for admiralty
inlet-east entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-
northern inland waters including the san juan islands-puget
sound and hood canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 21 mi33 min E 2.9 G 7 52°F 50°F1024.1 hPa (+0.0)
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 23 mi63 min SSE 11 52°F 1024 hPa39°F
46120 26 mi26 min NE 7.8 52°F 1024.7 hPa36°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 27 mi43 min SE 24 G 28 51°F 1022.3 hPa (-1.4)40°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 33 mi33 min S 20 G 22 51°F 1025.5 hPa (+0.0)38°F
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 37 mi33 min SE 6 G 13 51°F 52°F1026.1 hPa (+0.0)
46118 42 mi43 min 49°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 44 mi57 min E 5.1 G 7 50°F 50°F1023.5 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 44 mi43 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 50°F 49°F2 ft1022.7 hPa (-0.5)46°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA11 mi37 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast51°F37°F61%1025.9 hPa
Everett Snohomish County, WA17 mi40 minSE 17 G 2410.00 miOvercast50°F33°F52%1025.3 hPa
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA21 mi37 minSE 21 G 289.00 miLight Rain and Breezy53°F37°F57%1024 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA23 mi58 minE 1210.00 miOvercast52°F39°F62%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from AWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4CalmSE6SE10SE12E8SE9SE10SE7SE7SE3N3E4S3CalmSW5
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3W3N3NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--E3NW4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N3CalmCalmNW4CalmNW5NW5NW4NW7W3CalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kayak Point, Washington
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Kayak Point
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Wed -- 02:47 AM PST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:36 AM PST     11.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:07 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:44 PM PST     6.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:49 PM PST     7.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:41 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.92.41.31.11.73.1578.910.311.111.210.69.68.37.26.66.56.87.17.57.67.36.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mutiny Bay, 3.3 miles SE of, Washington Current
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Mutiny Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:50 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:54 AM PST     1.10 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:28 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:34 AM PST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:08 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:24 PM PST     -0.05 knots Min Ebb
Wed -- 10:37 PM PST     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:43 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.20.31.110.90.70.40.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1-0-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.