Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northwest Stanwood, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:34PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:22 AM PST (19:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:09PMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 816 Am Pst Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst this afternoon...
Today..S wind 20 to 30 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Tonight..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..Light wind becoming N to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
PZZ100 816 Am Pst Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak front will continue to move across the area today with small craft advisory winds through this afternoon. Winds will subside a bit tonight before a second weak system clips the area on Thursday. Offshore flow will return this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northwest Stanwood CDP, WA
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location: 48.25, -122.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 141813
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
1013 am pst Wed nov 14 2018

Update Early signs of a developing convergence zone were
evident as of 10am this morning between mount vernon and everett.

This feature is likely to persist well into the afternoon hours
before diminishing this evening while very gradually drifting
south. Elsewhere scattered light showers were moving east across
the region and will gradually taper off from west to east this
afternoon and overnight. Showers may linger into the morning hours
over the north cascades and surrounding foothills. The forecast
has been updated to reflect the latest trends and short range
guidance. -wolcott-

Synopsis A frontal system will bring periods of light rain and
locally breezy winds to western washington today. A secondary front
will keep conditions wet Thursday and into Friday. Upper level
ridging is expected to resume over the weekend allowing for dry
conditions as well as overnight and morning fog. A front may
approach the region early next week with a chance of rain.

Short term Early signs of a developing convergence zone were
evident as of 10am this morning between mount vernon and everett.

This feature is likely to persist well into the afternoon hours
before diminishing this evening while very gradually drifting
south. Elsewhere scattered light showers were moving east across
the region and will gradually taper off from west to east this
afternoon and overnight. Showers may linger into the morning hours
over the north cascades and surrounding foothills.

Winds peaked across much of western wa earlier this morning and
have begun to decrease. See the marine section for additional
details. -wolcott-
from previous discussion:
models have also shifted the next system a bit further north which
would bring much less rainfall into the area. There will be a lull
between systems tonight, then light rain should develop Thursday.

At this point, the trend is for keeping the bulk of rainfall
across the far north. From around puget sound southward, pops were
cut and QPF lowered. The second system looks weaker than the one
over the area today, with only light rain amounts. The north
cascades could see an inch or two deepening on how closely the
next system passes to our north. Showers will linger into Friday
morning, but a drying trend should begin later in the day.

Long term A strong upper level ridge amplifies offshore Friday,
then shifts over the pacific northwest over the weekend. Models
keep the ridge in place through at least Monday, with areas of
night and morning fog. Cold pocket locations will drop below
freezing for lows, with freezing fog likely around the southwest
interior and interior south puget sound.

The gfs ECMWF continue to have difficulty establishing the long
wave pattern next week, although both models agree on split flow.

This will tend to slow and weaken systems as the northern branch
brings systems into the region. Timing of systems early next week
is difficult with models flip flopping with each run. The ecmwf
shows some light rain possible by Monday night or Tuesday. A more
active weather pattern could develop next week.

Mercer

Aviation A slow moving frontal boundary is moving across the
air this morning with moist air mass in place. MVFR conditions
generally are the rule this morning with a few sites bouncing
betweenVFR and MVFR in heavier showers. Precipitation will
decrease this afternoon, but given residual moisture in place, low
MVFR to ifr ceilings will persist tonight into Thursday morning.

Low level southerly flow will peak this morning as front moves
through, gradually subsiding through the rest of the period and
becoming weakly onshore Thursday. West southwest flow aloft will
transition to west northwest behind the front.

Ksea... Above discussion applies. Showers will become more spotty
this morning into early afternoon before tapering off. Moist
airmass in place will likely keep MVFR ceilings going through the
period. Possible could briefly deteriorate to ifr at some point
overnight but too low confidence for inclusion with morning taf
issuance. Winds easing to under 10 kts tonight. Ceo

Marine Cold front continues to push east southeast across the
area this morning. Strong low level winds continue with small
craft advisory conditions across all waters. Gradient will
gradually relax with subsiding winds later today into tonight.

Second system will move through later Thursday into Friday with
small craft advisory winds possible again for northern coastal
waters, west entrance to the strait and across the northern inland
waters by Thursday afternoon. Offshore winds return for the
weekend. Ceo

Hydrology The first system today will leave just relatively light
amounts of precipitation. So far there has been widespread one to
two tenths of an inch with up to 1 inch of precipitation in the
mountains. Not much of a response from rivers is expected. The front
will make its way through the area today with showers tapering off
late this morning. Will need to monitor rainfall for later this week
with the next system brushing the area Thursday, but amounts look
about the same as today . Flooding is unlikely on areas rivers
through the next 7 days. Jbb

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 3 pm pst this afternoon for admiralty
inlet-central u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-east
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland
waters including the san juan islands-puget sound and hood
canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 15 mi52 min S 12 49°F 1024 hPa46°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 17 mi40 min E 1 G 2.9 51°F 50°F1025.2 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 19 mi32 min SE 19 G 21 51°F 1023.9 hPa (+3.6)45°F
46118 33 mi87 min 49°F 1022.1 hPa46°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi46 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 51°F 50°F1023.4 hPa
46120 34 mi27 min NE 9.7 51°F 1024.6 hPa48°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 36 mi32 min W 14 G 16 54°F 49°F1 ft1022.9 hPa (+2.9)49°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 41 mi82 min S 20 G 21 49°F 1025.1 hPa (+1.4)47°F
CPMW1 44 mi40 min SSE 18 G 25 50°F 49°F
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 45 mi40 min SSE 4.1 G 12 53°F 53°F1025.3 hPa
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 45 mi34 min 1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA11 mi86 minSSE 14 G 208.00 miOvercast53°F44°F72%1025.1 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA16 mi47 minSSE 7 G 1510.00 miOvercast50°F46°F88%1025.1 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA18 mi26 minN 09.00 miOvercast49°F46°F93%1026.8 hPa

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SE8SE7E3E5CalmSE8SE5E11E15
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1 day agoSE8NE4E83CalmE4E6SE4E8E9E9E7E9E9E8E6E10E10E10SE8E11SE6SE7S6
2 days agoW3NW3NW5NW4N5CalmS3SE5SE3SE5CalmSE4SE8SE8E5E8E9CalmCalmN3E4E8E8NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Stanwood, Washington
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Stanwood
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Wed -- 05:02 AM PST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:59 AM PST     7.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:07 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:00 PM PST     1.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:12 PM PST     4.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:41 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.71.81.10.50.30.82.13.85.56.676.86.25.34.33.32.521.93.14.74.74.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mutiny Bay, 3.3 miles SE of, Washington Current
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Mutiny Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:50 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:54 AM PST     1.10 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:28 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:34 AM PST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:08 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:24 PM PST     -0.05 knots Min Ebb
Wed -- 10:37 PM PST     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:43 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.20.31.110.90.70.40.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1-0-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.