Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northwest Stanwood, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:18PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 7:33 AM PDT (14:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:01AMMoonset 6:25PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 240 Am Pdt Tue Apr 25 2017
Today..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain.
Wed..NW wind to 10 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft. Rain in the morning then scattered showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming nw. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE wind to 10 kt becoming 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 240 Am Pdt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A ridge of higher pres is over western washington today. A weakening pacific frontal system about 450 nm offshore early this morning to approach the coast this afternoon and move inland tonight. Strong onshore flow behind the front Wed into Thu should ease by Fri as higher pres builds over the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northwest Stanwood CDP, WA
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location: 48.25, -122.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 251023
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
320 am pdt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis Exiting high pressure will keep conditions mostly dry
through late this morning. Rain will return by this afternoon and
continue into Wednesday morning as a couple of weather systems move
onshore. Showers will linger later Wednesday then decrease Thursday
and Friday. High pressure will build Saturday followed by a weak
front Sunday.

Short term Current radar imagery is clear this early
morning... But zooming out to satellite imagery... Starting to see
clouds associated with next weather system out over the far coastal
waters signaling more of what most of the pacific NW has grown far
too accustomed to.

Models hold together well for the incoming front and its lingering
effects. Said front definitely takes its time... As it looks only to
reach the coast by around noon today and will not reach the interior
until mid to late afternoon... Depending on location. Given the
orientation of the front... Running NW to se... Southern portions of
the CWA more likely to see rain move in during the early afternoon.

Seattle itself will be a bit interesting... As precip there may hold
off till closer to 00z. Once it is here though... Rain will linger
through the night tonight and continuing into the day Wed as the
front stalls before finally breaking up into more showery precip wed
night and into thu. Previous model runs had suggested the
possibility of the need for some winter weather headlines for the
cascades for wed... As snowfall there could potentially reach low end
advisory amounts. Models have backed away from this... Avoiding
putting a cherry on the very depressing sundae that has been this
combined winter and spring period. Model agreement starts to fall
apart on Friday. Both models show very similar building of a ridge
to the west of the area... But GFS suggests drying conditions while
the ECMWF provides a wetter solution. Have opted to side more with
the GFS purely out of sheer rain fatigue.

High temperatures will continue to run cool... With most locations
not escaping the mid 50s for the near term period. Smr

Long term Model solutions fall back into alignment Saturday with
ridging overhead and dry conditions with... Wait for it... Afternoon
highs in the lower 60s. Cautiously optimistic for that... But on the
other hand... Models have been very inconsistent with the long term
over past several runs... Particularly when it comes to placement of
ridges and duration of dry breaks so much of this section may end up
falling into the realm of so many grains of salt. Sunday sees rain
again over W wa... But placement of parent low is wildly different
between the two models... As is the coverage of precip after Sunday.

Gfs is generally more showery except for late Monday afternoon which
sees more organized activity along a front that quickly moves
through. The ECMWF shows two distinct waves... One Sunday morning and
the other late Monday afternoon... But is very quick in building a
ridge in for Monday night and actually offers a drier solution.

The short version of all this is that while models seem okay when
taken on their own... The fact that this current run looks very
little like runs from 24 hours ago and those looked very little like
runs 24 hours previous to that and it becomes clear that any degree
of confidence in the long term forecasts is not warranted at this
time. Smr

Aviation An upper ridge will move onshore today and then
weaken tonight with westerly flow aloft over washington. At the
surface... A weakening pacific frontal system offshore will approach
the coast this afternoon and move inland tonight. Air mass stable
ahead of the front. Areas of lower level moisture this morning then
increasing mid/high level moisture through the day ahead of the
front.

Precipitation with the front is expected to begin along the coast
during the afternoon and in the interior late today or this evening.

Ksea... The advertised lower level MVFR ceilings developed a few
hours early and should linger through much of morning. They should
break out and give way to increasing mid/higher level clouds through
the rest of the day. Rain to begin just after 00z. Southerly winds
of 6-10 kt to prevail through the day and rise to 10-15 kt tonight.

Buehner

Marine A ridge of higher pressure over western washington this
morning. The next pacific frontal system about 450 nm off the coast
early this morning is expected to weaken as it approaches the coast
today. Coastal water winds should pick up to small craft advisory
levels today ahead of this system as well as in the eastern strait
and northern inland waters this evening.

Post-frontal onshore flow should be quite healthy with a good
potential of gale force winds in the strait late Wed as higher
pressure builds behind the frontal system. A gale watch now in place
for the central and eastern strait. The strong onshore flow should
ease by Fri as higher surface pressure builds onshore. Buehner

Sew watches/warnings/advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory coastal waters, eastern strait of juan de
fuca and northern inland waters.

Gale watch for the central and eastern strait of juan de fuca
later Wed afternoon and evening.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 15 mi64 min SSE 7 48°F 1014 hPa45°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 17 mi46 min SE 8 G 9.9
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 19 mi34 min S 6 G 7 47°F 1013.8 hPa (+0.9)
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi58 min S 2.9 G 4.1 48°F 48°F1014.1 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 36 mi44 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 49°F 49°F1 ft1013.2 hPa (+0.7)45°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 41 mi34 min S 15 G 17 48°F 1014.7 hPa (+0.6)43°F
CPMW1 44 mi46 min S 14 G 16 49°F
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 45 mi46 min S 7 G 8.9 49°F 48°F1015.1 hPa
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 45 mi46 min S 13 G 15 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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SE2
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island, Naval Air Station, WA11 mi38 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast51°F41°F69%1015.1 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA16 mi39 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast48°F44°F87%1014.6 hPa
Arlington Municipal, WA18 mi39 minSSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F37°F66%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E5S3NW4NW7--W12W11W10W14W12W9W6SW6SW6SW11SW16
G20
SW7SE7SE5SE14
G22
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SE16SE5
1 day agoS11SE13SE10S13
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G26
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S14SE14S13S13S14SE13SE11S8SE8S5SE5SE5SE8
2 days agoE7SE4E4SE6S20
G32
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G25
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G30
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G27
S18
G24
S13S9S8S13SE12SE12S13S11S8SE10S4S9

Tide / Current Tables for Stanwood, Washington
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Stanwood
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Tue -- 12:36 AM PDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 AM PDT     7.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:00 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:14 PM PDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM PDT     6.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.912.44.76.67.16.86.15.13.92.61.40.50.10.62.44.66.36.76.35.74.73.52.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mutiny Bay, 3.3 miles SE of, Washington Current
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Mutiny Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:36 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:55 AM PDT     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:55 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:36 PM PDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:44 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:30 PM PDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:25 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.110.90.60.2-0.6-1.4-1.4-1.2-1-0.7-0.30.31.51.41.10.80.3-0.6-1.1-1-0.8-0.6-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.