Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northwest Stanwood, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 4:48PM Thursday January 17, 2019 8:49 AM PST (16:49 UTC) Moonrise 1:39PMMoonset 4:05AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 225 Am Pst Thu Jan 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming se 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning then rain likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely in the evening then a chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain in the morning then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE wind 15 to 25 kt rising to 25 to 35 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..Light wind becoming se to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..Light wind becoming nw 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..S wind to 10 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 225 Am Pst Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A deep low over the oregon offshore waters will move north to near haida gwaii tonight as it slowly fills. A second deep low follow a similar track farther offshore Friday and Friday night. Gale force winds are forecast for the coast and some inland waters as both lows pass by the area to the west and northwest. A weaker system will affect the waters on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northwest Stanwood CDP, WA
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location: 48.25, -122.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 171106
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
306 am pst Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis An extensive area of low pressure will bring rain,
mountain snow, and some wind to western washington today and
tonight. Another fast moving system will bring another quick
period of moderate rainfall Friday night and Saturday. The pattern
will then remain fairly active Sunday thru mid next week as
several weak systems pass by. By late next week, a high amplitude
pattern develops across the country, with the pacific northwest
under a dry ridge influence.

Short term A 10z water vapor imagery analysis reveals an
extensive area of low pressure off of the washington oregon coast
beginning to lift northeast. Near the sfc an occluded front
extends out ahead the system's sfc low, which is stacked
underneath of the parent mid level low. This is evidence of a
weakening system, which guidance depicts well as the low is
progged to continue northeast and eventually become an open wave
trough.

This morning mrms radar imagery reveals an initial swath of
precip lifting north across the cwa. Offshore flow and a
noticeable easterly gradient has allowed for some breezy winds out
of the snoqualmie pass area into places like north bend where
gusts around 30 mph have been noted. Gradients are beginning to
relax so do expect these winds to continue to gradually ease. The
flow will continue offshore thru the day today with scattered rain
showers likely as the mid level low remains in the vicinity of
the area. Model guidance does suggest some stronger winds just off
the sfc between 925-700mb tho feel lack of appreciable mixing
should inhibit these winds from reaching the sfc, at least
initially today. Nonetheless, by this afternoon as winds shift
onshore as the main area of low pressure lifts northward, do think
stronger winds will reach the sfc, at least across the coast and
the north interior. A wind advisory remains in place for these
area thru 4am Friday where gusts to at least 40 mph is expected.

In addition to the wind, as precip continues, snow levels will
linger around 3500 ft in the cascades. Given the amount of
moisture expected with this system, snowfall amounts will likely
reach advisory levels above 3500ft. A winter advisory has been
issued for this afternoon thru Friday morning with accumulations
ranging from around 11 inches at mt baker to around 7 inches at
stevens pass and up to 15 inches at paradise, mt rainier.

The effects of this system should begin to taper off Friday
morning into the afternoon, where a brief break in the steadier
rainfall mountain snow is expected. Scattered showers will still
likely linger thru this timeframe and it will be short lived as a
quickly deepening shortwave trough darts across the pacific
towards the south-central bc coast. An atmospheric river of
moisture will accompany this wave with storm track progged to hit
the pacific northwest. Latest model solutions still indicate a
period of decent rainfall late Friday afternoon into early
Saturday morning, although it is beginning to look like the
heaviest swath will miss us to the south in oregon. Should this
trend continue, western washington may be looking more into
residual scattered showers for most of the day Saturday, perhaps
even a fairly dry end to the day.

Kovacik

Long term Active weather will continue into the first half of
the long term. The next in a series of shortwave troughs across
the pacific will approach the region on Sunday. Consensus for now
is pointing towards a more southerly track with this system so
have essentially blended the forecast for now, as some solutions
are mainly dry, others wet. Whatever the case, it is a quick
moving system and should be exiting Sunday night. By Monday, a
ridge sets up in the mid upper levels and western washington may
remain rain-free. However by Monday night and Tuesday moisture
will ride atop the ridge and bring another round of rain to the
area, which may linger all the way into much of Wednesday. After
this episode of wet weather a pattern change still looks
promising, as the CONUS enters a very high amplitude long wave
pattern- one which features an eastern us trough and western
us eastern pacific ridge. This will allow for the return of dry
conditions late next week into the weekend.

Kovacik

Aviation Southerly flow aloft this morning will become
southwesterly this afternoon. Frontal system will move north of the
area early this morning with an upper level trough moving into. The
area tonight. At the surface, easterly offshore flow will continue
today with the flow becoming more southerly tonight into Friday. The
air mass is stable with mid level moisture becoming slightly
unstable tonight.

Ceilings in the 5000-7000 foot range for the most part this morning.

Just some mid level clouds this afternoon. Ceilings lowering back
down to near 5000 feet tonight.

Ksea... Ceilings 5000-7000 feet this morning. Just some mid and high
level clouds this afternoon. Ceilings lowering back down to around
5000 feet tonight. Easterly wind 6-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots
early this morning. Wind becoming south southeasterly 6 to 12 knots
around 03z tonight. Felton

Marine A 972mb low over the oregon offshore waters will lift
northward to near haida gwaii tonight as it slowly fills. Strong
gradients to the east of this low will give gales to all of the
waters except for admiralty inlet and puget sound and hood canal
through tonight.

A 998 mb low near 34n 152w is forecast to deepen to 975 to 980 mb
as it moves NE to the queen charlotte sound early Saturday
morning. This low is expected to give another round of gales to
most of the waters Friday night into early Saturday.

Seas with the first system will build to 18-22 ft, highest over
the outer coastal waters. The second system may bring seas up to
30 feet to portions of the coastal waters late Friday night or
Saturday. Albrecht

Hydrology An active pattern is in store through early next as a
series of pacific storm systems affect the local area. The first system
will impact the area today into early Friday, with the second
system following closely on its heels late Friday afternoon into
Saturday. QPF amounts during this timeframe, which have come from
a blended forecast using hi-res model data and wpc suggest the
highest amounts across the mountains, particularly the olympics
where generally 2-4 inches can be expected which locally higher
amounts around 6 inches possible. Snow levels will hover around
3500 ft or so snow is expected across higher elevations. The
skokomish river will need to be monitored, as it may still reach
early this weekend. No other river flooding is expected during
this timeframe. An additional inch or so of precip will be
possible Sunday through the middle of next week.

Kovacik

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to noon pst
Friday for cascades of pierce and lewis counties-cascades
of snohomish and king counties-cascades of whatcom and
skagit counties.

Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am pst Friday for
admiralty inlet area-central coast-everett and vicinity-
north coast-san juan county-western skagit county-western
whatcom county.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough bar until 4 pm pst Friday for
grays harbor bar.

Gale warning until 4 am pst Friday for central u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca-coastal waters from CAPE flattery to
james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from CAPE flattery
to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island
to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from james
island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from
point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm-
east entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern
inland waters including the san juan islands-west entrance
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Friday for admiralty inlet-
puget sound and hood canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 15 mi80 min ESE 8.9 47°F 998 hPa40°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 17 mi38 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 46°F 47°F998.4 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 19 mi60 min ENE 8 G 8 47°F 997.7 hPa (+0.0)40°F
46125 25 mi34 min 5.8 43°F 997.8 hPa42°F
46118 33 mi55 min NNE 5.8 44°F 997.4 hPa37°F
46120 34 mi33 min NE 1.9 49°F 997.3 hPa40°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi74 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 46°F 47°F998 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 36 mi60 min NE 9.7 G 9.7 46°F 47°F2 ft997.2 hPa (+0.0)42°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 41 mi50 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 998.3 hPa (+0.5)43°F
CPMW1 44 mi38 min ENE 16 G 23 45°F 46°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 45 mi38 min 998.1 hPa

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA11 mi54 minENE 310.00 miLight Rain45°F37°F77%998.9 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA16 mi55 minE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F41°F76%998.3 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA18 mi54 minno data10.00 miOvercast41°F39°F96%999 hPa

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E10E7SE12E8E8E7E7E7E5E6SE7SE8SE4E5E5E10E9E6E9E10E8SE4E3
1 day ago--E10E6SE5E6E5E4SE5E6CalmE4E7E6E6E8E10E10E10E8E6E7SE6E5E6
2 days agoSE4SE4SE3SE3NW3SE4CalmCalmE3SE4E5SE5SE5E4CalmE7E5E8E11SE9E10E10E9SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Stanwood, Washington
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Stanwood
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Thu -- 03:08 AM PST     6.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:04 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM PST     2.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:53 PM PST     6.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:18 PM PST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.55.76.15.95.44.63.62.72.32.4466.96.76.25.44.43.22.110.2-0.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mutiny Bay, 3.3 miles SE of, Washington Current
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Mutiny Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:36 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:00 AM PST     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:05 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:25 AM PST     0.39 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:35 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:24 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:39 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:40 PM PST     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:02 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:59 PM PST     1.39 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.2-0.5-0.4-0.300.20.40.20.60.60.3-0.4-1.2-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.3-01.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.