Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Harbor, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:38PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 4:35 PM PDT (23:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:33AMMoonset 7:35PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 232 Pm Pdt Tue Mar 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect...
Tonight..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain turning to showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 or 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu through Fri..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri and Fri night..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 or 2 ft.
Sun..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 or 2 ft.
PZZ100 232 Pm Pdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A front was over the area today and another front will move through the region tonight and Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region Thursday and weak on Friday. Fronts are likely to reach the area again late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, WA
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location: 48.25, -122.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 282246
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
300 pm pdt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis Another warm front will bring more rain and higher
mountain snow to the area tonight. Low pressure will move into
vancouver island with the associated cold front pushing through
western washington Wednesday morning. An upper trough will follow on
Thursday resulting in showers and Sun breaks. High pressure will
build Friday and Friday night providing mostly dry weather. Weak
fronts may affect the region Sunday and early next week.

Short term Radar shows a slight let up in rainfall intensity as
the first warm frontal system begins to move east of the area. Ir
satellite imagery shows the next batch of warm advection rainfall
already moving inside 130 W and is just coming into range of the
coastal radar. This next system will be at least as strong, and will
likely bring another 2 to 4 inches to the olympics and perhaps 1 to
2 inches to the cascades with locally higher amounts. The lowlands
could still get another inch of rain on top of the .25 to 75 inch
amounts that fell through this morning. Areas northeast of the
olympics remain mostly rain shadowed with a pronounced portion of
the eastern strait and part of admiralty inlet getting very little
or no measurable rain so far. This additional rainfall will likely
cause flooding on the skokomish river in mason county. Other rivers
will run near bankfull and the bogachiel running off the olympics
could come close to flood stage, although flooding is not currently
forecast. See the hydrology section below for more detail and refer
to the latest flood statement for current information. Additional
rain will also cause the landslide risk to be even higher through
Wednesday as rain falls on saturated soils. The special weather
statement will remain in effect to address this concern.

Snow levels are on the rise this afternoon and it appears
precipitation may be close to changing over to rain at stevens pass
after about 5 inches fell today. Less fell at lower passes like
snoqualmie which should stay mostly rain until the cold front brings
colder air back in on Wednesday. Snow levels remain near 4500 feet
across the north cascades and mount baker is up to around 9 inches
of snow with little change in temperatures near freezing.

Eventually, even some warmer air should cause a period of mix or
rain up to at least 5000 feet later tonight. But 6 or more inches
will probably fall with total amount over a foot likely by this
evening. A winter weather advisory is in effect for west slopes of
the north cascades of whatcom and skagit counties through late
tonight.

Rain will become showers on Wednesday as low pressure moves into
vancouver island and cooler, somewhat drier air filters into western
washington. Snow levels will drop back down to most pass levels and
the strong flow give some orographic help in snowfall. But the lack
of moisture should still keep amounts limited to just a few inches
or less, including the passes. A meso low is still expected to
develop on the north kitsap peninsula. Latest models are a little
stronger that yesterday but the kbli-kpdx gradient never reaches +10
mb on most models and the wrf-gfs keeps winds generally sub-advisory
from late morning to the afternoon. Strongest southerly gusts will
occur from central/north puget sound to around admiralty inlet,
reaching 35 to 40 mph at times. A westerly push down the strait may
also bring some gusts to the land portions of the strait and west
side of whidbey island but still sub-advisory. With recent rainfall
and saturated soil, it will not be surprising to see some trees
topple in gusts of 35 or 40 mph.

The weather begins to quiet down Wednesday night and Thursday. An
upper trough will move across the region bringing showers. A puget
sound convergence zone is also possible, with the best chance of
this bringing enhanced showers to snohomish and king counties.

Showers will taper off Sunday afternoon and most areas will see sun
breaks.

High pressure aloft builds Thursday night and Friday giving a period
of dry weather. The low level flow will be light and 500 mb heights
over 5700m will support warming temperatures, possibly reaching near
60s from around the central sound to the southwest interior,
especially inland from the water. If sea-tac reaches 60, it will be
the first time this year.

Long term The gfs/ecmwf are in fair agreement agreement on
showing the ridge flattening Friday night and Saturday as a system
rides over the top of the ridge. Increased cloud cover should be
expected, and a chance of light rain, especially toward the coast
and further north. Western washington will still be in the warm
sector so high temperatures should again be mild, possibly close to
60. If less clouds prevail, some areas like the southwest interior
could reach the low 60s. But any stronger onshore flow would
certainly keep the area stuck in the 50s but still nice compared to
recent temperatures.

Models show mainly weak systems to affect the region early next
week. Some solutions keep cut off lows more offshore with less
threat of precipitation while other models are a bit wetter. Neither
the GFS or ECMWF show any significant rainfall so a lull in the
active weather is expected. All signs point toward more typical
spring like weather with some clouds, some sun, and a chance of some
showers with near average temperatures. Mercer
aviation... A front will continue to bring rain to western washington
tonight through Wednesday morning. There is strong westerly flow
aloft becoming more southwest tonight. There is low pressure moving
into british columbia and breezy southerly pressure gradients over
the area--although the gradients will relax for awhile this evening
and then pick up again overnight through Wednesday as a second
frontal wave rides up along the frontal zone. A cold frontal passage
will occur Wed afternoon with the rain turning to showers and the
air becoming unstable.

Ksea... Rainy middling TAF looks good with a decent southerly breeze
through Wednesday morning. Periods of rain will give way to showers
later Wednesday afternoon as a cold FROPA occurs.

Marine Pretty decent southerly flow today, although that
will ease ahead of the next wave riding up the frontal zone. The
winds might increase again later tonight and Wed morning more than
the forecast calls for, so we will have to watch the developing
frontal wave and see if it spins up a deeper low. As that passes
through, around midday wed, there will be a cold frontal passage
followed by westerlies coast and strait of juan de fuca. High
pressure will build into the region for Thursday and Friday and then
a front may reach the coast Friday night.

Hydrology Rain amounts over the past 18 hours reached roughly 3
inches along the south and west facing slopes of the olympics. The
cascades have seen a somewhat less, generally a half to 2 inches
with localized amounts near 3 inches in central portions. At this
time, flooding is not expected on rivers in the cascade basins. Some
rivers will run near bankfull and bare a close watch the next 24
hours.

The only river forecast to flood is the skokomish river in mason
county. Minor flooding is expected tonight into Wednesday. See the
latest flood statement for current information. The bogachiel river
is also forecast to rise tonight, but is forecast to remain just
below. However, forecasts should be closely closely the next couple
days for any changes or updated watches and/or warnings. Refer to
the latest flood watch statement on our website at


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 15 mi65 min S 13 50°F 1021 hPa45°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 17 mi47 min SE 17 G 21
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 19 mi35 min SE 20 G 22 50°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.0)
46118 33 mi110 min SSW 21 49°F 1020.6 hPa44°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi59 min 47°F1020.5 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 36 mi45 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 49°F 48°F1 ft1018.6 hPa (-0.6)46°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 41 mi35 min S 21 G 22 50°F 1021.9 hPa (-0.9)44°F
CPMW1 44 mi47 min SE 19 G 21 48°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 45 mi47 min SE 9.9 G 20 1020.2 hPa
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 46 mi47 min S 8 G 16 53°F 47°F1022.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW4
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E18
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W5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island, Naval Air Station, WA11 mi39 minSSE 22 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy53°F42°F66%1021.5 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA16 mi40 minSE 910.00 miOvercast50°F44°F82%1021.3 hPa
Arlington Municipal, WA18 mi40 minSE 20 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy50°F37°F62%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW6SW5CalmCalmS9SE9S8S11
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1 day agoSE14
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S12SE13S12NW5
2 days agoW7W7W7CalmCalmE5E5SE4E6SE10E10E10E10E10SE11SE11
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for Stanwood, Washington
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Stanwood
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 AM PDT     7.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:33 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:21 PM PDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM PDT     6.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.60.51.63.96.17.37.26.65.64.43.11.90.90.50.82.64.96.56.86.45.64.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mutiny Bay, 3.3 miles SE of, Washington Current
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Mutiny Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:35 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:09 AM PDT     1.34 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:04 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM PDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:34 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:04 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:37 PM PDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:35 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:31 PM PDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.21.21.31.10.80.50-1.3-1.3-1.2-1-0.7-0.4-01.31.210.70.3-0.8-1.2-1.1-0.9-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.