Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Harbor, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:27PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 3:11 AM PST (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 254 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Areas of morning fog.
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..SE wind rising to 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves building to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..SE wind 15 to 25 kt, becoming S 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding late.
Thu..SE wind rising to 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves building to 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night through Sat..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 254 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Higher pres E of the cascades with lower pres offshore will keep the flow mainly easterly today. A weak cold front extending from a 998 mb low will approach from the W tonight. This front will move across the washington coastal waters on Wednesday, and probably dissipate as it moves onshore. A stronger frontal system will impact the area on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, WA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 48.25, -122.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus66 ksew 200456
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
856 pm pst Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis High pressure will provide one more dry day across
the region Tuesday. A series of low pressure systems will bring
wet weather Wednesday through Friday. After a break between
systems on Saturday, a weak front could bring some light rain
Sunday.

Short term
Low clouds and fog were developing over the lowlands sooner than
predicted, so the forecast was updated earlier to account for
this. Also, the forecast was updated to expand the areal coverage
of the fog low stratus overnight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise
there are no major changes to the previous forecast thinking.

Models generally agree that light rain reach the coast early
Wednesday morning, then spread into the rest of western washington
by midday. This first front will be the weakest as it encounters the
ridge pushing eastward. QPF amounts look rather light, perhaps a
third of an inch over the mountains and about half that over the
lowlands. Snow levels may start just above pass levels but will fall
later Wednesday and Wednesday night down to at least 4000 feet. This
could allow a couple inches of snow to fall at some passes such as
stevens pass, and white pass. Ski areas may pick up several inches
but likely sub-advisory level.

The next system arrives for thanksgiving with steady rain picking up
during the afternoon. This front will have significantly more
moisture to work with and better lift, both dynamic and orographic.

Snow levels will fall, probably down to all mountain passes by
afternoon. Models still show a split flow pattern with the heaviest
precipitation again headed into ca and oregon. There is a strong
orographic push with onshore flow behind the front, and this would
be the likely be the period of heaviest snowfall. An advisory could
be necessary, but with the split flow and progressive push through
the region, snow amounts in the passes come up just short of
advisory level. It will become breezy with this system as well, but
gradients do not support strong or damaging winds. However,
visibility in the passes could be reduced with snowy pass conditions
at times.

Long term from the prev discussion Snow levels will lower to
around 2500 feet Thursday night into Friday. Additional snow is
likely, and accumulations in the passes will probably cause travel
difficulty through passes. Those planning travel through mountain
passes Wednesday through this weekend should pay close attention
to current forecasts and check on road conditions by calling 5-1-1
before departing.

Snow will taper to snow showers in the mountains Friday afternoon
and night. Cool and showery conditions will affect the lowlands. The
puget sound convergence zone could become active as well. 1000-850mb
thickness values are not as low as might be expected with the -31c
cold pool overhead at 500mb. Low elevation snow does not appear to
be a concern at this time.

A break in precipitation is expected for Saturday. The GFS and ecmwf
both show this brief dry period. Both models also bring a weak front
into the area Saturday night and Sunday with a round of light rain
and mountain snow. Rain amounts should not be more than a couple
tenths at best given the progressive flow pattern.

The progressive flow pattern continues into early next week. This
makes timing individual fronts difficult. Wet weather is shown by
the ECMWF returning by late Monday and Monday night, while the gfs
holds rain off until Tuesday. Either way, expect unsettled weather
and timing can be refined as we get closer to the day 6-7 period.

Mercer

Aviation High pres aloft will remain over the region overnight.

The flow aloft will be sly. This will result in a thin elevated
layer of wildfire smoke to drift N across the area. The low level
flow will remain light ely. Expect areas of lifr CIGS vsbys over
mainly the interior lowlands overnight.

Ksea... Expect fog and low ceilings (at or below 500 ft) to develop
overnight. The visibility should lower into the 1-3sm range by
sunrise, with the visibility occasionally lowering to a half mile
Tuesday morning. There is a 30 percent chance that the visibility
will drop as low as a quarter of a mile Tuesday morning. There is
also a chance that ceilings visibilities will improve slower than
forecast. Winds will generally be light and variable.

Marine High pressure over id with lower pressure offshore will
keep the flow mainly easterly (offshore) through Tuesday. A
weakening cold front extending from a 998 mb low will approach
from the west Tuesday night. This front will move across the wa
coastal waters on Wednesday, and then mostly dissipate as it moves
onshore.

Regarding the Thursday Friday system: confidence in the forecast
was still low because of lack of agreement between the weather
models. The current wind forecast reflects the stronger GFS model
solution. Most solutions were weaker with the Thursday Friday
system. Will probably lean in this direction with the issuance of
the early morning forecast, especially if most or all of the
models stay with a weaker solution.

Hydrology
River flooding is not anticipated the next 7 days; however, there
will be some rises on area rivers the end of this week or early
next week.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 15 mi41 min SE 1.9 32°F 1017 hPa
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 17 mi41 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 50°F1017.8 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 18 mi81 min SSE 7 G 8 46°F 1017.2 hPa (+0.0)43°F
46125 25 mi160 min 51°F
46118 33 mi76 min 37°F 1016.7 hPa36°F
46120 34 mi49 min Calm 44°F 1016.4 hPa41°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi95 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 41°F 49°F1017.2 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 36 mi51 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 46°F 49°F1016.8 hPa43°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 41 mi71 min Calm G 1 43°F 1017.5 hPa (+0.0)42°F
CPMW1 44 mi41 min ENE 13 G 16 45°F 49°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 45 mi41 min 1017 hPa
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 46 mi41 min S 1.9 G 2.9 40°F 52°F1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last
24hr
S3
W1
S2
S3
S1
SW2
SW2
SE2
E1
NE2
--
N4
W4
W4
W5
W6
W5
S2
S2
S2
S1
S2
S1
S2
1 day
ago
SW2
NW2
W3
NW3
SW2
NW3
NW2
W4
N6
W3
N4
G7
N3
W3
W5
W6
W4
W4
W3
W6
SW4
W4
W4
W5
SW2
2 days
ago
W5
SW5
NW5
NW1
SW1
NW2
G5
NW4
G7
W6
W4
G8
W5
W5
W4
G7
W1
G4
W2
G7
SW6
SW4
G7
SW5
W4
W4
W4
W4
SW4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA11 mi15 minESE 99.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F32°F86%1018.2 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA16 mi16 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast34°F32°F93%1017.3 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA18 mi15 minN 310.00 miFair28°F27°F96%1018 hPa

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrS3E4E3SE5SE4SE3CalmSE4E4CalmE3E5E4E3SE3SE4SE4SE5SE4SE4CalmSE3SE7SE9
1 day agoCalmCalmE3SE4CalmCalmE44NW5NW3NW5NW4SE3E3CalmSE3CalmS3SE3SE5CalmSE5SE3SE4
2 days agoCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE3NE54N5NW7N7N7N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE3CalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Stanwood, Washington
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Stanwood
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:30 AM PST     5.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:05 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:42 AM PST     1.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:42 PM PST     6.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:25 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:26 PM PST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.32.94.75.75.85.44.83.92.92.11.51.52.74.76.56.96.665.142.71.60.70.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mutiny Bay, 3.3 miles SE of, Washington Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Mutiny Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:10 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:54 AM PST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:06 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:25 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:32 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:52 AM PST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:24 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:39 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:00 PM PST     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:11 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:51 PM PST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.80.60.30-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.80.70.60.40.1-0.7-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (6,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.