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FXUS66 KOTX 262304 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 404 PM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
The weekend and early next week will feature showery weather over the mountains with seasonal like temperatures. Sunday and Monday have the potential to be windy with the passage of a frontal system. This system will also bring snow to the Cascade mountain passes Sunday night and Monday morning. Temperatures begin to warm mid next week onward, but showers remain in the forecast as well.

DISCUSSION
Tonight through Sunday Night: A trough is moving into the Pacific Northwest and will keep showers going through the weekend.
Instability is pretty week and so far have only seen one cloud flash in western Okanogan county. Instability is peaking now or in the next hour or so and then will wane through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Showers will continue through the night across the Idaho Panhandle under the favorable southwesterly flow as the low moves across northern Oregon. Then Saturday we will see renewed showers across the region with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms, mainly across northern WA and ID.

Winds will increase Saturday afternoon across central WA and increase further on Sunday as the next trough approaches. South to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with some localized sustained winds up to 25 mph and gusts 20 to 30 mph is forecast. Don't think the gusts will be strong enough to create blowing dust, but the sustained winds speeds may be strong enough. NBM is showing a 50-70% chance of sustained winds to 20 mph Saturday across portions of the Waterville Plateau and a 70-80% chance on Sunday.
The area extends Sunday and there is a 30-50% chance of sustained winds to 20 mph across portions of the Columbia Basin (eastern Grant county and western Lincoln and Adams counties). Have added some patchy blowing dust during the mid to late afternoon for these areas.

As the second trough moves into the area Sunday evening snow levels will lower across the Cascades impacting the Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. There is a 70-80% chance of seeing 3 inches of snow through Monday morning, and a 30-35% chance of 5 inches.

Temperatures will be near or slightly below average, or lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s and highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
/Nisbet

Monday through Friday: Cooling temperatures, gusty winds, and occasional mountain showers will be the main events of early next week. As a shortwave trough moves through Sunday night into Monday, snow levels will fall to 2k-3k feet with the lowest snow levels over the Cascades and highest snow levels over the ID Panhandle. By Monday morning, 4 to 6 inches of snow are expected to have fallen at Stevens Pass and 2 to 4 inches at Washington Pass. Snow will continue through the day on Monday, but any accumulations will quickly melt after sunrise.

Winds will be breezy through the day on Monday with sustained winds in the 20 to 25 mph range for the Waterville Plateau, Palouse, and exposed areas of the Basin. Gusts in the neighborhood of 30 to 45 mph will be possible. Wind speeds will gradually decrease Monday night into Tuesday. Patchy blowing dust won't be out of the question on Monday with planting well underway in agricultural areas. Weak thunderstorms capable of producing a few lightning strikes will pop up each afternoon.

Beyond Tuesday, model guidance is split between a troughing pattern lingering and a shortwave ridge moving in. Uncertainty is high as to whether we'll see warming and drying over the latter half of the week, or whether our unsettled weather will continue. /Fewkes



AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions tonight for all TAF locations with a 10-20% chance of MVFR cigs redeveloping for GEG/SFF/COE/PUW towards 15Z, though confidence isn't high and therefore have it as a few/sct deck instead of bkn. Will see patchy to areas of fog develop across the northeastern WA/north ID valleys aft 06Z. There is a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, though highest confidence is along the Canadian border. Do not have mention in the GEG/SFF/COE TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low to Moderate confidence of showers for COE Saturday afternoon.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 42 61 40 58 39 54 / 20 20 10 10 20 40 Coeur d'Alene 42 59 41 55 38 51 / 20 30 10 40 30 60 Pullman 41 57 39 56 37 50 / 20 10 0 10 30 50 Lewiston 47 65 46 64 44 58 / 20 20 10 0 30 40 Colville 36 61 35 58 35 54 / 40 40 20 30 40 60 Sandpoint 42 58 41 52 39 47 / 50 40 40 60 60 80 Kellogg 43 56 43 52 39 46 / 40 60 20 60 50 80 Moses Lake 40 65 40 64 38 60 / 10 20 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 45 61 42 61 40 56 / 20 20 0 0 0 10 Omak 42 65 39 63 38 59 / 30 30 0 0 10 20

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

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