Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblemount, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:50PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 3:47 PM PDT (22:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:51PMMoonset 6:35AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 252 Pm Pdt Tue May 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am pdt Wednesday...
Tonight..W wind 15 to 25 kt becoming nw 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..W wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming W 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming sw 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt easing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S wind to 10 kt becoming sw after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 252 Pm Pdt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow will increase this evening as a surface low moves inland. High pressure over the ne pacific will maintain onshore flow through the rest of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblemount, WA
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location: 48.54, -121.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 211559
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
859 am pdt Tue may 21 2019

Update Water vapor imagery this morning confirms a longwave
trough that extends roughly from the gulf of alaska down into the
western CONUS thru northern mexico and into the great plains.

Focusing attention to the pacnw reveals a notable shortwave trough
embedded within this larger scale flow regime moving onshore the
oregon coast. Cyclonic flow around this feature, combined with
synoptic scale lift and weak height falls is still allowing for an
east to west progression of scattered showers this morning. This
is especially true across the southern counties of the CWA as
well as the north sound and portions of the central and eastern
strait vicinity. The oregon trough is expected to continue se
thru the day, carrying the best dynamics with it. This will allow
for the dissipation of existing areas of showers thru the morning
hours, confirmed by hi-res model guidance. Nevertheless, a few
showers will then re-develop across the higher terrain of the
cascades and olympics, as northerly flow contributes to some
orographic lift. At this time instability appears marginal
overall so will leave mention at just showers, but an isolated
lightning strike could materialize over the northern cascades this
afternoon.

Minor tweaks were made to the pops thru 18z this morning to
account for some additional shower coverage near the sound and
strait, but the remainder of the forecast was largely on track.

Previous discussion can be referenced below with updated marine
and aviation sections.

Kovacik

Prev discussion issued 227 am pdt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis An upper level low off the coast will will continue
to bring scattered showers through this morning. A drier period is
forecast Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge builds, with showers
limited to the mountains. An upper low will bring more showers
Friday and Saturday, with another dry period Sunday and Monday.

Short term today through Thursday Upper level low nearing
the coast of oregon will move onshore today. Showers associated
with the low continue across the area early this morning but will
begin to dissipate later this morning as low moves onshore and
then drops southeast. Most areas will dry out during the day
though a few showers may linger into the afternoon, mainly across
the mountains. Afternoon temperatures should be several degrees
warmer than Monday, especially for areas that see a few sunbreaks.

High pressure then attempts to build in for Wednesday into
Thursday. Mostly dry weather expected for the lowlands but the
potential exists for showers to develop across the higher terrain.

Models are hinting at a bit of instability as well, so a rumble of
thunder or two might be possible each afternoon evening in the
north cascades. Have left out of the forecast for now, but thunder
may need to be added to the forecast today for Wednesday.

Temperatures should warm back into the 70s. Ceo

Long term Friday through Monday Another shortwave trough
will drop south across the area on Friday, bringing increasing
cloud cover and the chance for showers. Trough will eventually
become closed off and drop south along the west coast into the
weekend, continuing the chance for showers on Saturday. Cooler
temperatures for Friday will warm back up to the low 70s on
Saturday. By Sunday, ridging may briefly build back in for a dry
day, though a few showers may fire over the cascades. Models still
disagree a bit on timing and details so have left slight chc pops
across higher terrain. Big differences for Monday as GFS hangs
onto the ridging while the ECMWF drops another low down through
the area for another round of showers. Ceo

Aviation An upper level low will spin over the pac NW today,
with wrap-around moisture mainly affecting the southern portion of
the cwa. The flow aloft is easterly. Ceilings are a mixed bag
this morning with pockets of ifr to MVFR conditions. CIGS should
improve this afternoon forVFR conditions. Expect mostly dry
weather tonight as the upper level low continues to exit south. 33
ksea... Showers remaining south of the terminal today.VFR
conditions expected. N winds at the surface to 10 kt. 33

Marine Onshore flow will increase today as low pressure shifts
inland - small craft advisories are in effect. In addition, seas
over the coastal waters will build to 10-12 feet. Winds through
the strait of juan de fuca will ease late tonight. High pressure
over the the NE pacific will maintain onshore flow through the
remainder of the week. 33hydrology... The daily hydrology
discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it
will only be updated as needed until then.

Hydrology The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed
until then.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Wednesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough bar until 11 pm pdt this evening
for grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Wednesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters
from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal
waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 1 am pdt Wednesday for central u.S.

Waters strait of juan de fuca-east entrance u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters including the
san juan islands-west entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan
de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 73 mi48 min 1008.2 hPa (+0.5)
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 76 mi54 min WNW 6 G 11 59°F 51°F1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA46 mi56 minNW 510.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from AWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11SW12--S7SE4S5SE3E3NE5N3NW5NW4NW5N3N3CalmNW3CalmNW5W4NW7W8NW11NW5
1 day agoW10NW9NW11W8NW10NW5N4N4N6NW6NW4N4N3CalmS4S3S5SE6S10SE8S9S11S10SE10
2 days agoNW7NW11NW9NW8NW6SW3--NW4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN4N4CalmW44SE46NW8W8

Tide / Current Tables for Stanwood, Washington
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Stanwood
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Tue -- 03:35 AM PDT     1.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:39 AM PDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:37 PM PDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:49 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:16 PM PDT     7.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:53 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.42.51.923.85.96.46.15.44.63.52.31.10.1-0.4-0.40.72.74.96.57.37.26.6

Tide / Current Tables for Marysville, Quilceda Creek, Washington
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Marysville
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Tue -- 01:50 AM PDT     5.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:24 AM PDT     9.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:52 PM PDT     -1.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:02 PM PDT     11.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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75.95.76.37.58.89.79.68.87.25.12.70.4-1.1-1.6-0.71.346.89.110.611.210.89.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.