Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:43PM Friday February 22, 2019 3:54 AM PST (11:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:57PMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 240 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..SE wind 20 to 30 kt becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the morning then rain likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..SW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sat..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming E 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..E wind 15 to 25 kt becoming ne to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon.
Sun night..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming ne 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ100 240 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A frontal system will move through the area today. A weak low near queen charlotte sound Saturday morning will drift south to the oregon coast by Sunday morning. Northeasterly offshore flow will develop Saturday night and continue through Tuesday with high pressure over british columbia and lower pressure south of washington.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva, WA
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location: 48.76, -122.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 221111
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
310 am pst Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis A frontal system will bring rain and mountain snow
today. A cool upper trough will follow the front this weekend and
into early next week. Low snow levels will continue through the
period.

Short term today through Monday Starting to see some weak
echoes on radar over nearshore marine waters serving to herald the
approach of the incoming system. Conditions and snow levels along
the coast remain in the 1000-2000 ft range... So no worries for mixed
precip there... Should all be rain. Models remain consistent that
main thrust of precip still expected to hold off until afternoon
when interior snow levels will also rise above 1000 ft and as such
bulk of precip today will be in liquid form. Morning pops are a
little bit on the aggressive side although in the case of the
potential for mixed precip and its associated impacts... Likely
better to err on the side of caution. Once precip band makes it to
the cascades this afternoon... Snowfall amounts there continue to
look like they will fall solidly within advisory criteria and as
such inherited winter weather advisory will be left in place.

Although the front exits the area tonight... An upper level trough
over the area will keep showers in the forecast for much of the
weekend. Showery conditions Saturday may see some flakes mix in as
some locations will see snow levels dip a bit down to around 500 ft
but the majority of lowland locations will see precip remain
rain... Especially as snow levels climb back to about 1000 ft by late
morning. Sunday will see activity taper some as most of the action
travels south however the southern portion of the cwa... Say from
olympia south... May still see some lingering showers. As one would
expect... The diurnal pattern for snow levels will see them dip early
Sunday am once again resulting in the potential for mixed precip
however... Again... Snow levels do not fall too much below 500 ft and
as such chances are better for mostly rain with a few flakes here
and there.

Most recent model runs have precip pushing back north a little more
than the solutions of 24 hours ago while maintaining that snow
levels throughout the day will remain near sea level for the morning
and afternoon hours before rebounding slightly in the evening. Pops
during this time frame still remain relatively low... Generally
around 30 pct or less... However this would allow for any precip that
does fall to fall as snow in the lowlands. While discrepancies
remain in the finer details... The general trend continues to show a
winding down of activity and little if any snowfall or accumulation
expected. As such... Will treat as a minor irritant at best for now.

All in all... Very little in the way of adjustments to inherited
short term forecast as near term models remain fairly consistent
with only a few minor hiccups in the details. Smr

Long term Tuesday through Friday Models remain out of sync with
one another for Tuesday... Keeping confidence in the long term pretty
low. Current GFS runs show dry conditions Tuesday whereas the ecmwf
is pretty antithetical to that. They appear to realign starting
Wednesday morning with conditions being pretty wet over W wa for
much of the day and into the bulk of Thursday as an upper level low
moves eastward through the area. Models diverge again after that as
the ECMWF keeps a troughy pattern over the pac NW while the gfs
ushers in a pretty steep ridge from over the pacific.

Fortunately... No matter which model is right regarding the upper
level systems... Precip and what have you... The consensus is that
snow levels will climb throughout the long term period... Getting up
to the 3000-4000 ft range by Thursday Friday and as such any precip
from Wednesday on will be liquid. Should this remain consistent in
future runs... May finally be able to put the specter of this winter
in the rear view mirror. Smr

Aviation Westerly flow aloft with increasingly moist air mass
ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front shifting
southeastward into the area today. Areas of MVFR ceilings will
develop as rain spreads across the region from the northwest this
morning. The front will reach the north coast around 18z then
rapidly sweep across the whole of western washington by late
afternoon. Given the flow aloft, there is likely to be some rain
shadowing over the central puget sound and the lowest ceilings may
be restricted to around frontal passage and a possible brief
convergence zone behind it. More widespread MVFR ceilings are
possible after 06z tonight as a moist post-frontal air mass remains
in place and surface gradients weaken.

Ksea... Ceilings lowering this morning with MVFR in rain developing
18z-20z. The precipitation may very briefly begin as a rain snow
mix. Precipitation should taper off rather quickly behind the front
with ceilings lifting back toVFR after 02z or 03z. Periods of MVFR
expected to redevelop later tonight after 06z-08z. Light southerly
surface winds will become gusty just ahead of the front... Becoming
10 to 15 gusting to 20 to 25 knots late morning into early
afternoon. Winds easing back to under 10 knots this evening. 27

Marine A frontal system will move through the area today with
small craft advisory strength southerly winds most waters becoming
westerly this afternoon and evening and then easing. A weak surface
low near queen charlotte sound Saturday morning will move south to
the oregon coast by Sunday morning. Northeasterly offshore flow will
develop Saturday night and continue through Tuesday with high
pressure over british columbia and lower pressure to the south of
washington. Schneider

Hydrology River flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Winter weather advisory from noon today to 6 am pst Saturday for
cascades of pierce and lewis counties-cascades of snohomish
and king counties-cascades of whatcom and skagit counties.

Pz... Small craft advisory until midnight pst tonight for admiralty
inlet-coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10
to 60 nm-coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island
out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point
grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from james island to
point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point
grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters
from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm-east
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-puget sound and
hood canal-west entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory for rough bar until 9 pm pst this evening
for grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm pst this evening for northern
inland waters including the san juan islands.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight pst
tonight for central u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46118 9 mi59 min W 14 39°F 1016.8 hPa33°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 20 mi36 min 1017.4 hPa
CPMW1 20 mi42 min SSE 16 G 18 40°F 45°F
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 21 mi84 min SSE 2.9 31°F 1018 hPa29°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 35 mi78 min E 2.9 G 5.1 39°F 46°F1017.7 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 38 mi64 min SE 14 G 16 39°F 1017.2 hPa (-1.1)32°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 49 mi42 min SE 8 G 9.9 38°F 46°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA7 mi61 minN 010.00 miOvercast35°F26°F70%1018.2 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA20 mi59 minN 010.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N9N8N7N7N8N12N11
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N10S33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E6S3S4S4S4Calm
1 day agoN4N6N5N5NE5N6NE8N7N8N5NW8NW6N6NW5CalmN4N3NW7NW5N7N7N8NW5N6
2 days agoCalmCalmN3N3N3CalmSE6S7S9SE10S11S9
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S13SE3S4SE4NW4W4CalmCalm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bellingham, Washington (3)
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Bellingham
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:38 AM PST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:16 AM PST     9.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:00 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:27 PM PST     2.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:42 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:03 PM PST     7.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:57 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.112.74.76.78.59.49.28.16.64.93.733.13.84.96.27.27.77.46.44.93.3

Tide / Current Tables for Sinclair Island, 1 mile NE of, Washington Current
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Sinclair Island
Click for MapFlood direction 307 true
Ebb direction 112 true

Fri -- 02:33 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:26 AM PST     0.23 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:00 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:03 PM PST     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:34 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:43 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:50 PM PST     0.14 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:58 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:57 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.7-0.30.10.20.20.20-0.3-0.5-0.8-1-1-0.9-0.6-0.200.10.1-0-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.