Wednesday, August22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marietta-Alderwood, WA

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Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 10:52 PM PDT (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:37PMMoonset 12:40AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 900 Pm Pdt Tue Aug 21 2018
Tonight..W wind to 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Smoke.
Wed..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Smoke.
Wed night..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Areas of smoke.
Thu..S wind 5 to 15 kt easing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SW wind to 10 kt becoming S 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..S wind to 10 kt becoming sw 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming sw to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 900 Pm Pdt Tue Aug 21 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A thermally induced trough of low pres along the washington coast will weaken this evening and the flow will become light overnight. Strong onshore flow will develop on Wednesday. Onshore or westerly flow will continue Thursday. The smoke is expected to begin slowly clearing from the west late Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marietta-Alderwood, WA
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location: 48.76, -122.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 220507
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
1007 pm pdt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis Light flow at the surface will become onshore on
Wednesday and increase during the day. Aloft the ridge over the
area will weaken with the flow becoming westerly beginning
Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday. This
combination will help alleviate thick wildfire smoke over the
area. An upper level trough will move into the area Friday into
the weekend for cooler weather with a chance of showers.

Short term Satellite imagery shows a thick layer of smoke
remaining over western washington this evening with the light
northeasterly flow aloft. Light gradients at the surface.

Temperatures at 9 pm 04z were in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

No change to the forecast this evening. The big question is when
the smoke is going to improve over western washington. First look
at the 00z model runs shows the timing still on track with the
upper level ridge weakening on Wednesday and the flow aloft
becoming westerly. At the surface, the flow turns onshore but not
until after 18z Wednesday. Without the smoke factor tomorrow would
be the warmest day in this series from about seattle eastward with
the transition to onshore flow in the afternoon. With the smoke
still over the area tomorrow and looking a little thicker than
today will stay with the idea of highs being slightly cooler with
the warmer locations getting into the upper 80s. Temperatures
aloft show little chance tonight through Wednesday with model 850
mb temperatures around plus 18 or 19c so if the smoke thins out a
bit in the afternoon it is certainly possible to get a few low 90s
again.

The push is on Wednesday evening with the koth-ksea gradient
peaking near plus 6 mb and the khqm-ksea and kuil-kbli gradient
near plus 4 mb early in the evening. Smoke models show a rapid
improvement in the smoke between 06z-12z Thursday with the marine
push. Lows will be in the 50s.

Much cooler Thursday with the low level onshore flow pattern
remaining intact and the flow aloft west southwesterly. Onshore
gradients weakening a little during the day with some afternoon
sunshine for the interior. Highs will be 10-20 degrees cooler,
only in the 60s and lower 70s.

Weak upper level trough swinging through the area early Friday
with the flow aloft behind the trough becoming northwesterly (
this direct will keep the smoke away ). Slight chance of showers
on Friday with the trough with high temperatures remaining cool,
in the 60s and lower 70s. The current high temperature of 70
degrees or more streak in seattle is currently at 52 days. It
could be broken on Friday. Felton

Long term Previous discussion follows... Persistent cyclonic
flow in the mid and upper levels will make for an active pattern
across the pacific northwest. Onshore flow will continue in the
lower levels and while this will keep smoke away... We will be
looking into increasing chances for much needed rainfall across
the area. Saturday looks similar to Friday with light showers
possible... Tho may be slightly more coverage. By
Sunday... Operational 12z ec and GFS runs diverge in regards to a
potentially strong shortwave diving south across the area from bc.

Comparing these runs to eps gem GEFS ensemble data... The GFS runs
closest to the ensemble guidance. That being said... The ec is
much more aggressive in bringing in much deeper moisture and rain
coverage. This will be worth watching. The key will lie in both
the placement and development of a strong ridge and essentially a
high over low block across the central eastern pacific along
with the trajectory of eastern pacific typhoons. Have gone ahead
and basically blended the two solutions for now... Perhaps slightly
favoring the ECMWF for now. Regardless of the path of the
shortwave... At least cooler temps look like a sure bet through all
of this! Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as
the pacific blocking patterns keeps a pacific northwest troughing
pattern locked in. Kovacik

Aviation Little change overnight through Wednesday afternoon
with smoke reducing the visibilities down to 2 to 4 sm with
ceilings 2000 feet to 4000 feet with the smoke layer. Visibilities
will improve Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The smoke
layer will be replaced by a stratus deck in the 1000-2000 foot
range early morning.

Ksea... Little change through Wednesday afternoon with
visibilities 2 to 4 sm in smoke and ceilings 2500-4500 feet with
the smoke layer. Northerly winds 4 to 8 knots becoming light after
12z. Winds becoming west southwesterly 4 to 8 knots Wednesday
afternoon. Felton

Marine Smoky conditions continue with visibility generally 1-4
miles over the waters through Wednesday afternoon. Light flow
tonight will becoming strong onshore flow Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening with gales possible through the strait of juan
de fuca ( a gale watch is in effect ). Onshore flow of varying
degrees will continue through the weekend. Felton

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night
for central u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-east
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46118 7 mi58 min 64°F 1013.5 hPa60°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 8 mi41 min 1014.2 hPa
CPMW1 8 mi47 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 67°F 59°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 22 mi77 min Calm G 1 64°F 58°F1014.3 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 24 mi83 min Calm 63°F 1014 hPa58°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 31 mi63 min SW 5.1 G 6 60°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.4)53°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 38 mi33 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 58°F 55°F1014 hPa53°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 45 mi47 min Calm G 1 62°F 54°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA9 mi60 minN 02.00 miHaze Smoke64°F53°F68%1014.7 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA11 mi58 minS 44.00 miHaze64°F55°F73%1013.9 hPa
Friday Harbor Airport, WA24 mi60 minN 03.00 miFair with Haze60°F48°F67%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmS4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW4SW543W4SW3CalmSE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N7NW8NW8W11NW10
G15
W9W9W7W8S5SW4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW345W8W43SW33CalmS4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Point Migley, Hale Passage, Washington
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Point Migley
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Wed -- 01:50 AM PDT     7.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:27 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:06 AM PDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:31 PM PDT     8.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:17 PM PDT     5.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.677.16.86.14.93.31.70.60.20.412.13.44.96.37.48.18.17.56.76.15.85.9

Tide / Current Tables for Hale Passage, 0.5 miles SE of Lummi Pt, Washington Current
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Hale Passage
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Wed -- 12:57 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:31 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM PDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:08 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:21 PM PDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:41 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:18 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:44 PM PDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:55 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.10.611.31.41.30.90.4-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.30

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.