Saturday, December15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marietta-Alderwood, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 4:16PM Saturday December 15, 2018 4:07 PM PST (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:57PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 251 Pm Pst Sat Dec 15 2018
.gale warning in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain in the evening then rain likely after midnight.
Sun..SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming se 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain in the evening then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..SE wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE wind 25 to 35 kt easing to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Tue..SE wind 15 to 25 kt becoming S 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon.
Tue night..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wed..S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming se 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..SE wind 25 to 35 kt becoming sw 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 251 Pm Pst Sat Dec 15 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Strong frontal systems will move through the area tonight, later Monday, and Thursday. Southerly gales will occur over most waters as each front passes.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marietta-Alderwood, WA
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location: 48.76, -122.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 152219
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
219 pm pst Sat dec 15 2018

Synopsis A front will move through the area late tonight and
Sunday bringing rain, locally windy conditions, and high mountain
snowfall. A stronger front will move across the area Monday night
through Tuesday giving locally windy conditions with and heavy
rainfall. Another strong front will move across the region
Thursday or Thursday night.

Short term tonight through Tuesday Conditions are mainly dry
across the region this afternoon as we sit between weather
systems. A strong frontal system that is now seen over the
washington and oregon offshore waters is moving slowly eastward
and will cross the area late Sunday afternoon.

While the front will be stretching and weakening somewhat as it
moves into the area, pressure gradients will be strong enough to
produce southeast winds 20-35 mph with gusts to 45 to 50 mph over
areas near the water in western whatcom county, the san juan
islands, and the area around admiralty inlet and the eastern
strait of juan de fuca. A wind advisory has been issued for these
zones tonight through Sunday morning.

Precipitation with the front is not expected to be exceptionally
heavy, but it will be heavy enough over the southern slopes of the
olympics to potentially cause the skokomish river in mason county
to go back above flood stage late Sunday. This river is running
just below flood stage at this time and it would not take too much
rain to cause it to flood again. A flood watch is out for mason
county.

Snowfall will be heavy, especially Sunday morning through early
afternoon, in the higher cascades of skagit and whatcom counties.

The mount baker ski area will likely see 12-18 inches of new snow
before precipitation turns to rain and becomes lighter Sunday
afternoon. A winter storm warning has been issued for the cascades
of whatcom and skagit county for tonight into Sunday afternoon as
a result.

Sunday night through early Monday will see post frontal showers
gradually diminish across the area. There may be a brief break in
the action between systems Monday afternoon.

From Monday night through Tuesday, a strong frontal system
associated with a deep low moving into the SE alaska panhandle
will move SE across the area. This front will bring more wind and
rain to the area. The air mass ahead of this front will be quite
moist, and ssw winds 60-75 mph at 5000 ft will produce good
orographic uplift over the southwestward facing olympics and
cascades. Models have been advertising heavy precipitation
amounts with this front for several days now, but the more recent
model solutions have picked up on a more progressive frontal
system for less of a flood threat over the northern half of
western washington. Snow levels ahead of the front will only be
modestly high -around 4500-6000 ft. Flooding may be a threat to
rivers south of the seattle area, but it is too early to tell at
this time. Albrecht

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday Extended models
have moved toward a solution where there is a break in the heavier
rainfall between Tuesday's front and the next progressive frontal
system Thursday night. Some models show the potential for
Thursday night's front to be quite windy with the deterministic
ecmwf and some GFS ensemble members showing a 990ish mb low moving
eastward along the canadian border. Another front may move through
the area next weekend.

A blended model solution was used as a first guess forecast for
the Tuesday night through Saturday period. Albrecht

Aviation A strong frontal system will reach the area tonight
and move inland on Sunday. Southerly flow aloft. At the surface,
easterly flow tonight will become southerly late Sunday as the
front moves through. The air mass is moist and stable.

Mostly mid and high clouds currently although there are some
5000-7000 foot ceilings floating around. The trend will be for
gradual lowering ceilings this evening as the front nears and
rain develops. Low clouds should become widespread later tonight
but easterly winds ahead of the front will likely keep thingsVFR
for the interior. There should be some MVFR ceilings Sunday,
mainly west of puget sound.

Ksea... Mid and high clouds will lower to 5000-6000 feet this
evening as rain develops. Easterly wind 5-10 knots will increase a
little tonight and continue into Sunday, then turn southerly late
in the day as the front passes. Schneider

Marine A strong frontal system will bring another round of
gale force southerly winds to most waters tonight and Sunday
morning. There will be a relative lull in between fronts later
Sunday through Monday morning. A second strong frontal system will
bring more gales later Monday and Monday night. Moderate onshore
flow behind the second front will ease later Tuesday and Tuesday
night. A third frontal system will approach from the west on
Wednesday and likely bring another period of gales on Thursday.

The latest wave model shows 20-22 foot west swell reaching the
coast late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Schneider

Hydrology The flood prone skokomish river is below flood stage
for now but the rain on Sunday will probably drive the river back
above flood stage: a flood watch is in effect for mason county.

The weather pattern will remain active through next week and we will
have to keep an eye on rainfall amounts, snow levels, and river
forecasts. Overall, there seems to be enough of a gap between the
heavier rain in each system, and looking at the plumes of moisture--
the so called atmospheric river of moisture does not seem to stall
over western washington long enough to put us in an obvious flood
pattern. We will need to watch rivers over the southern portion of
the forecast area closely if the front slows in its southeastward
movement.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 4 pm pst Sunday
for cascades of whatcom and skagit counties.

Flood watch through Wednesday morning for mason county.

Wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to noon pst Sunday for
admiralty inlet area-san juan county-western whatcom county.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough bar until 4 pm pst Sunday for
grays harbor bar.

Gale warning until 10 am pst Sunday for coastal waters from cape
flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from
cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from
james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters
from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal
waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out
10 nm.

Gale warning until 4 pm pst Sunday for east entrance u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters including the
san juan islands.

Gale warning until 4 am pst Sunday for west entrance u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca.

Gale warning until 4 pm pst Sunday for central u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 10 am pst Sunday for admiralty inlet.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm pst Sunday for puget sound and
hood canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46118 7 mi72 min SW 12 46°F 1012.5 hPa37°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 8 mi37 min 1012.9 hPa
CPMW1 8 mi43 min ENE 13 G 19 45°F 47°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 22 mi91 min ENE 11 G 13 47°F 48°F1012.5 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 24 mi97 min E 9.9 46°F 1013 hPa36°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 31 mi77 min ESE 17 G 20 47°F 1012.1 hPa (-2.5)37°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 38 mi77 min ESE 19 G 23 47°F 47°F3 ft1011 hPa (-1.6)40°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 45 mi43 min SE 8 G 9.9 47°F 48°F

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA9 mi74 minNE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F34°F68%1013.8 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA11 mi72 minENE 69.00 miFair46°F37°F71%1012.9 hPa
Friday Harbor Airport, WA24 mi74 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F34°F58%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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S844S7S7S9S8SE7SE9SE11SE856N7NE10NE9
1 day agoSE16
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2 days agoS13
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Tide / Current Tables for Point Migley, Hale Passage, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Hale Passage, 0.5 miles SE of Lummi Pt, Washington Current
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Hale Passage
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM PST     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:49 AM PST     First Quarter
Sat -- 04:15 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:01 AM PST     1.47 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:28 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:26 PM PST     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:18 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:38 PM PST     -0.04 knots Min Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.10.30.81.31.51.20.70.3-0.2-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.