Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marietta-Alderwood, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:43PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:32 AM PST (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:58PMMoonset 9:01AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 1024 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm pst this evening...
Today..SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Tonight..SW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sat..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming E 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..E wind 15 to 25 kt becoming ne to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon.
Sun night..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming ne 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ100 1024 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters.. A frontal system will move through the area today. A weak low near queen charlotte sound Saturday morning will drift south to the oregon coast by Sunday morning. Northeasterly offshore flow will develop Saturday night and continue through Tuesday with high pressure over british columbia and lower pressure south of washington.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marietta-Alderwood, WA
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location: 48.76, -122.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 221727
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
927 am pst Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis A frontal system will bring rain and mountain snow
today. A cool upper trough will follow the front this weekend and
into early next week. Low snow levels will continue through the
period.

Short term today through Sunday We're getting reports of
light snow or flurries in the interior lowlands this morning as
precipitation moves in. Significant accumulations are not
expected. Snow levels will be rising today, to around 1,000 ft,
as onshore flow increases and we'll be seeing mainly rain.

Temperatures will be in the lower 40s to help minimize impacts
from any light snow. It's a different story up in the mountains. A
winter weather advisory is in effect for the west slopes of the
cascades. New snowfall totals of 6 to 11 inches are possible
through tonight, including the passes. A period of heavy snow is
possible this evening as a convergence zone is aimed between
stevens and snoqualmie pass. 33
previous discussion... Although the front exits the area
tonight... An upper level trough over the area will keep showers in
the forecast for much of the weekend. Showery conditions Saturday
may see some flakes mix in as some locations will see snow levels
dip a bit down to around 500 ft but the majority of lowland
locations will see precip remain rain... Especially as snow levels
climb back to about 1000 ft by late morning. Sunday will see
activity taper some as most of the action travels south however
the southern portion of the cwa... Say from olympia south... May
still see some lingering showers. As one would expect... The
diurnal pattern for snow levels will see them dip early Sunday am
once again resulting in the potential for mixed precip
however... Again... Snow levels do not fall too much below 500 ft
and as such chances are better for mostly rain with a few flakes
here and there.

Most recent model runs have precip pushing back north a little more
than the solutions of 24 hours ago while maintaining that snow
levels throughout the day will remain near sea level for the morning
and afternoon hours before rebounding slightly in the evening. Pops
during this time frame still remain relatively low... Generally
around 30 pct or less... However this would allow for any precip that
does fall to fall as snow in the lowlands. While discrepancies
remain in the finer details... The general trend continues to show a
winding down of activity and little if any snowfall or accumulation
expected. As such... Will treat as a minor irritant at best for now.

All in all... Very little in the way of adjustments to inherited
short term forecast as near term models remain fairly consistent
with only a few minor hiccups in the details. Smr

Long term Monday through Thursday Previous discussion... Models
remain out of sync with one another for Tuesday... Keeping
confidence in the long term pretty low. Current GFS runs show dry
conditions Tuesday whereas the ECMWF is pretty antithetical to
that. They appear to realign starting Wednesday morning with
conditions being pretty wet over W wa for much of the day and into
the bulk of Thursday as an upper level low moves eastward through
the area. Models diverge again after that as the ECMWF keeps a
troughy pattern over the pac NW while the GFS ushers in a pretty
steep ridge from over the pacific. Fortunately... No matter which
model is right regarding the upper level systems... Precip and what
have you... The consensus is that snow levels will climb
throughout the long term period... Getting up to the 3000-4000 ft
range by Thursday Friday and as such any precip from Wednesday on
will be liquid. Should this remain consistent in future runs... May
finally be able to put the specter of this winter in the rear
view mirror. Smr

Aviation Westerly flow aloft with increasingly moist air mass
ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front shifting
southeastward into the area today. Areas of ifr to MVFR ceilings
have started to develop this morning as precipitation has already
started to spread across the region. Some areas have already
reported a rain snow mix ahead of the frontal boundary, however
little to no accumulation is expected. The front should reach the
north coast around 18z then rapidly sweep across the whole of
western washington by late afternoon. Ceilings are expected to
improve around 00-02z, however could become MVFR again as a moist
post-frontal air mass remains in place and surface gradients
weaken.

Ksea... A mix of rain snow has started to fall at the terminal, is
expected to transition to rain and to continue through 22z.

Little to no accumulation is expected as temperatures remain warm.

MVFR ceilings have developed at the terminal this morning.

Precipitation should taper off rather quickly behind the front
with ceilings lifting back toVFR after 02z or 03z. Periods of
MVFR are expected to redevelop later tonight after 06z-08z. Light
southerly surface winds have started to become gusty ahead of the
front... 10 to 15 gusting to 20 to 25 knots through the morning
hours and into early afternoon. Winds will ease back to under 10
knots this evening. 27 14

Marine A frontal system will move through the area today with
small craft advisory strength southerly winds for most waters
becoming westerly this afternoon and evening, before easing during the
overnight hours. A weak surface low will move south to the oregon
coast by Sunday morning. Northeasterly offshore flow will redevelop
late Saturday night and continue through Tuesday with high
pressure over british columbia and lower pressure to the south of
washington. Schneider sb

Hydrology River flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Winter weather advisory from noon today to 6 am pst Saturday for
cascades of pierce and lewis counties-cascades of snohomish
and king counties-cascades of whatcom and skagit counties.

Pz... Small craft advisory until midnight pst tonight for admiralty
inlet-coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10
to 60 nm-coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island
out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point
grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from james island to
point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point
grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters
from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm-east
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-puget sound and
hood canal-west entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory for rough bar until 9 pm pst this evening
for grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm pst this evening for northern
inland waters including the san juan islands.

Small craft advisory until midnight pst tonight for central u.S.

Waters strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46118 7 mi37 min SSW 23 40°F 1010.7 hPa35°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 8 mi32 min 1010.9 hPa (-0.9)
CPMW1 8 mi32 min SSE 28 G 34 38°F 45°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 22 mi56 min S 9.9 G 15 39°F 46°F1011.4 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 24 mi62 min S 18 38°F 1012 hPa32°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 31 mi42 min S 21 G 26 40°F 1011.7 hPa (-0.0)33°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 38 mi42 min W 7.8 G 12 38°F 46°F3 ft1011.4 hPa (+0.4)36°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 45 mi32 min SSE 18 G 21 39°F 46°F1012.9 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA9 mi39 minSSE 17 G 337.00 miLight Rain38°F32°F79%1011.5 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA11 mi37 minSSW 12 G 215.00 miLight Rain39°F37°F93%1010.5 hPa
Friday Harbor Airport, WA24 mi39 minS 53.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F35°F86%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7
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N10S33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E6S3S4S4S4CalmS5S6SE12SE9SE16
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1 day agoN8N5NW8NW6N6NW5CalmN4N3NW7NW5N7N7N8NW5N6N3N9N8N7N7N8N12N11
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S13SE3S4SE4NW4W4CalmCalm--CalmN4N6N5N5NE5N6NE8N7

Tide / Current Tables for Point Migley, Hale Passage, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Hale Passage, 0.5 miles SE of Lummi Pt, Washington Current
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Hale Passage
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:59 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:27 AM PST     2.28 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:44 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:01 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:54 AM PST     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:00 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:51 PM PST     1.35 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:44 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:29 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:57 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:54 PM PST     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.600.91.82.22.21.70.8-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.3-1-0.6-00.71.21.310.4-0.3-0.7-1.1-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.