Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Marietta-Alderwood, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:26PM Sunday November 19, 2017 4:14 AM PST (12:14 UTC) Moonrise 8:19AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 257 Am Pst Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
Today..SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain in the morning then rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming W 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain in the evening then a slight chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..E wind 5 to 15 kt becoming se 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wed..SE wind 15 to 25 kt rising to 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 257 Am Pst Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A cold front will move southeast along the british columbia coast this morning, then move southward through the washington waters this afternoon and evening. The front will be preceded by increasing south to southeast wind, with gales expected over all waters except the central strait. A high pressure center will pass across the waters on Monday. A strong warm front will push northward through the waters on Tuesday. A strong low pressure center should move north well offshore to near haida gwaii late Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marietta-Alderwood, WA
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location: 48.76, -122.7     debug

Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 190545
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
900 pm pst Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis A vigorous front will bring rain and windy conditions
to western washington Sunday and Sunday night. Weak high pressure
over the area on Monday will provide a brief lull in the active
weather. The next in a series of fronts arrives Tuesday and
Wednesday with rain and windy conditions. Wet weather will persist
through through the end of next week.

Short term Light warm advection rainfall has reached the north
coast and extreme north interior this evening. Radar returns further
offshore are not very impressive and IR imagery showing brighter
clouds tops lifting northward. This matches up well with most models
holding off on the bulk of rainfall until later Sunday morning.

Warmer air aloft will infiltrate the area causing snow levels to rise
as precipitation arrives. The north cascades may stay cool enough
for some decent snow accumulations but some rain will probably mix
in at times. Will plan on dropping the winter storm watch for the
cascades of pierce lewis counties and just go with an advisory for
the north cascades above 5000 feet for up to 10 inches Saturday
afternoon and night. Will need to adjust the timing on this.

The new 00z models are little changed from earlier runs and shows
south southeasterly gradients increasing later tonight and Sunday
ahead of a strong front. A meso low will also develop northeast of
the olympics which should induce some stronger wind gusts around the
admiralty inlet whidbey island area. Southerly winds of 20 to 35 mph
with gusts 50 to 55 mph still appear reasonable for the north
interior and central north coast. Wind advisories remain in effect
for these locations Sunday. There is some questions as to whether
the stronger winds could extend a bit further south into parts of
everett or other areas around puget sound. The latest uw wrf4km only
shows spotty gusts close to 40 mph around the sound. This is still
sub-advisory but it will still be a windy day across all of western

Models are also fairly progressive with the front with heaviest rain
falling Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening, then tapering
overnight. Heaviest rainfall will occur along the south slopes of
the olympics where strong orographics will enhance rainfall. Even
then, amounts may struggle to reach much above 2 to 3 inches. The
skokomish river will still be at risk of minor flooding and the flood
watch remains in effect. Refer to the latest flood watch statement
and hydro section below for details.

The system sags south on Monday with a brief lull in wind and rain
over the area. Another warm front arrives Monday night and Tuesday
with another round of rain and locally windy conditions. This system
will bring warmer air into the region and high temperatures could be
well above average by Tuesday and Wednesday. Mercer

Long term From previous discussion... The strong warm front will
be over the region Tuesday. The heavier rain shifts to the b.C.

Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night before shifting south over the
area Thursday and breaking up somewhat. It will be mild, rainy, and
breezy and the rivers will be running high, with the skokomish river
in mason county flooding. There is a chance of flooding on the other
rivers, but the fact that this pineapple express is more southerly
probably means the best orographics are limited to the olympics. But
it will still make a mess of our early season snowpack which is a
shame for the skiers. Seattle ought to be up around 60 for a high

Aviation A flat upper ridge aloft will exit to the east
tonight. A strong cold front will spread down the british
columbia coastline tonight and move southward through western
washington later Sunday. The front will be preceded by heavy rain
and strong southerly surface wind. Moderate westerly flow aloft
this evening will become strong on Sunday while strong south to
southwest winds develop between 1500 and 6000 ft msl midday Sunday.

The air mass is stable and will become increasingly moist late
tonight and Sunday. Expect mainlyVFR conditions across the area
today with conditions lowering to ifr in precipitation and low
ceilings from the northwest on Sunday. Albrecht
ksea... Only few-sct035 with moisture above 120 through most of
tonight. CIGS around 035 will rapidly develop about 12z late
tonight with rain developing later Sunday morning. CIGS and vsbys
will lower Sunday afternoon to 008-012 into the evening hours in
occasionally moderate rain. South wind at the surface 6-10 kt
through Sun morning will increase to 15g25kt about 18z. Winds at
025 will increase to 19060kt 20z-02z Sunday with peak winds
between 040 and 060 of 19070kt. Albrecht

Marine A strong cold front extending wsw from the queen
charlotte sound into the pacific will slowly drag southeast down the
british columbia coastline tonight and then push southeastward
through the washington waters Sunday afternoon through the early
evening hours. In advance of the front, winds will rise. The wind
increase will progress from north to south through tonight with
gales expected over most waters ahead of the front. Winds will
rapidly ease and shift out of the northwest behind the front later
Sunday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will bring light winds to the waters on Monday. A
strong warm front will push northward through the waters on Tuesday.

A strong low pressure center developing well offshore will push
northeast into haida gwaii on Wednesday. Haner albrecht

Hydrology The skokomish river in mason county will likely rise to
near or over flood stage and could stay up around flood stage for
several days.

For all other rivers, the new 00z models do not show especially
heavy precip over the cascades mid week. The flow will be mostly
southerly through the week which is not usually not conducive for
the heavier rain amounts needed to cause river flooding in most
cascade basins. Regardless, the system still bares watching with a
warm air mass in place and a long fetch of available moisture.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Winter weather advisory Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for the cascades of whatcom and lewis counties above 5000 feet.

Flood watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for hood
canal area-lower chehalis valley area-olympics.

Wind advisory from 6 am to 3 pm pst Sunday for admiralty inlet
area-san juan county-western skagit county-western whatcom

Wind advisory from 6 am to 5 pm pst Sunday for central coast.

Wind advisory from 4 am to 3 pm pst Sunday for north coast.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough bar from 6 am Sunday to noon pst
Monday for grays harbor bar.

Gale warning from 3 am to 7 pm pst Sunday for coastal waters
from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 7 pm pst Sunday for
coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10
to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 3 am to 3 pm pst Sunday for admiralty inlet-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm-east entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-
northern inland waters including the san juan islands.

Gale warning until 3 pm pst Sunday for coastal waters from cape
flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from
cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from
james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 3 pm pst Sunday for west
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm pst Sunday
for central u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 6 am pst Sunday for puget sound and
hood canal.

Gale warning from 6 am to 3 pm pst Sunday for puget sound and
hood canal.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 24 mi44 min S 14 47°F 1015 hPa37°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 31 mi74 min SE 23 G 26 47°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA9 mi21 minSE 19 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy49°F34°F56%1014.7 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA11 mi19 minS 14 G 1910.00 miOvercast48°F39°F71%1013.5 hPa
Friday Harbor Airport, WA24 mi21 minSE 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast47°F42°F83%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE13
1 day agoS3CalmS3S4SE64S5S64S6S4S4S5SE5S5S5S6SE64SE7SE8SE8SE9S8
2 days agoS8S10S11S9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Migley, Hale Passage, Washington
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Point Migley
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Sun -- 06:51 AM PST     8.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:26 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:19 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:14 AM PST     6.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:25 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:27 PM PST     8.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:43 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:12 PM PST     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Hale Passage, 0.5 miles SE of Lummi Pt, Washington Current
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Hale Passage
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Sun -- 03:17 AM PST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:16 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:22 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:15 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM PST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:20 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:38 PM PST     0.67 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:25 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:47 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:16 PM PST     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.