Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marietta-Alderwood, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:19PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 11:35 AM PDT (18:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:01AMMoonset 6:26PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 855 Am Pdt Tue Apr 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SE wind 5 to 15 kt rising to 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 or 2 ft building to 1 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers.
Wed night and Thu..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night and Fri..NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 or 2 ft.
PZZ100 855 Am Pdt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A ridge of higher pres is over western washington today. A weakening pacific frontal system about 450 nm offshore early this morning to approach the coast this afternoon and move inland tonight. Strong onshore flow behind the front Wed into Thu should ease by Fri as higher pres builds over the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marietta-Alderwood, WA
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location: 48.76, -122.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 251631
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
931 am pdt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis High pressure aloft will keep conditions mostly dry
this morning. Rain will return by this afternoon and continue into
Wednesday morning as a couple of weather systems move onshore.

Showers will linger later Wednesday then decrease Thursday and
Friday. High pressure will build Saturday followed by a weak front
Sunday.

Short term
There were a few light showers over the cascades this morning
occurring well ahead of a frontal system presently offshore. Rain
associated with the frontal system was starting to move onto the
coast this morning.

Models hold together well for the incoming front and its lingering
effects. Said front definitely takes its time... As it looks only to
reach the coast by around noon today and will not reach the interior
until mid to late afternoon... Depending on location. Given the
orientation of the front... Oriented NW to se... Southern portions of
the CWA more likely to see rain move in during the early afternoon.

Seattle itself will be a bit interesting... As precip there may hold
off till closer to 00z. Once it is here though... Rain will linger
through the night tonight and continuing into the day Wed as the
front stalls before finally breaking up into more showery precip wed
night and into thu. Previous model runs had suggested the
possibility of the need for some winter weather headlines for the
cascades for wed... As snowfall there could potentially reach low end
advisory amounts. Models have backed away from this... Avoiding
putting a cherry on the very depressing sundae that has been this
combined winter and spring period. Model agreement starts to fall
apart on Friday. Both models show very similar building of a ridge
to the west of the area... But GFS suggests drying conditions while
the ECMWF provides a wetter solution. Have opted to side more with
the GFS purely out of sheer rain fatigue.

High temperatures will continue to run cool... With most locations
not escaping the mid 50s for the near term period. Smr/05

Long term from the prev discussion Model solutions fall back
into alignment Saturday with ridging overhead and dry conditions
with... Wait for it... Afternoon highs in the lower 60s. Cautiously
optimistic for that... But on the other hand... Models have been very
inconsistent with the long term over past several
runs... Particularly when it comes to placement of ridges and
duration of dry breaks so much of this section may end up falling
into the realm of so many grains of salt. Sunday sees rain again
over W wa... But placement of parent low is wildly different between
the two models... As is the coverage of precip after Sunday. GFS is
generally more showery except for late Monday afternoon which sees
more organized activity along a front that quickly moves through.

The ECMWF shows two distinct waves... One Sunday morning and the
other late Monday afternoon... But is very quick in building a ridge
in for Monday night and actually offers a drier solution.

The short version of all this is that while models seem okay when
taken on their own... The fact that this current run looks very
little like runs from 24 hours ago and those looked very little like
runs 24 hours previous to that and it becomes clear that any degree
of confidence in the long term forecasts is not warranted at this
time.

Aviation There are a few showers and areas of clouds with cigs
from 025-060 over western washington this morning. A front just
offshore will reach the coast this afternoon and move inland
tonight. Rain will develop on the coast this afternoon and spread
inland this evening.

Ksea... Current TAF seems to be in the ballpark, there will be a
southerly breeze today and tonight that should not shift til
Wednesday afternoon when a strong pscz pattern will develop.

Marine Southerlies will pick up today, especially over the
coastal water. Decent south winds will spread inland with the front
this evening. FROPA reaches the coastal beaches this evening and
westerlies move down the strait of juan de fuca overnight--and the
westerlies in the strait should reach gale force Wednesday
afternoon. There will be a strong pscz wind pattern in place
Wednesday afternoon and night--for that matter, those winds
gradually ease but the pattern stays the same through Thursday, with
westerlies coast and strait and a pscz over the puget sound area.

Sew watches/warnings/advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 1 am pdt Wednesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters
from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 3 am pdt Wednesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters
from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters
from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm-east
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland
waters including the san juan islands.

Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
for central u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-east entrance
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 8 mi47 min SSE 13 G 16 1013.2 hPa
CPMW1 8 mi47 min SSE 13 G 16 50°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 22 mi59 min SE 5.1 G 7 49°F 49°F1013.3 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 24 mi65 min S 11 52°F 1013 hPa44°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 31 mi35 min NNE 11 G 12 52°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.7)
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 38 mi45 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 49°F 49°F1 ft1012.8 hPa (-0.7)46°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 45 mi53 min E 11 G 13 51°F 49°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA9 mi42 minSSE 1010.00 miOvercast53°F43°F69%1013.8 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA11 mi40 minSSE 99.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F44°F77%1012.9 hPa
Friday Harbor, Friday Harbor Airport, WA24 mi42 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F46°F83%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6--6NW10W8W86W4CalmS4S5S4S7S9S9S12
G17
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1 day agoS6S7SE10S10SE11
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SE11SE8SE8SE6SE6SE5E3NE3NE4NE3NE4NE3N3CalmSE4N4
2 days agoCalmS10
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Tide / Current Tables for Point Migley, Hale Passage, Washington
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Point Migley
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:48 AM PDT     8.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:47 AM PDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:51 PM PDT     7.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:26 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:54 PM PDT     3.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.74.96.17.48.38.57.96.44.32.310.71.22.43.75.26.67.57.87.36.14.73.53.1

Tide / Current Tables for Hale Passage, 0.5 miles SE of Lummi Pt, Washington Current
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Hale Passage
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:14 AM PDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:52 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:02 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:53 AM PDT     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:57 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:00 PM PDT     1.73 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:24 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:24 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:27 PM PDT     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.51.11.41.20.6-0.1-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.1-0.600.91.51.71.510.3-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.