Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ferndale, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:28PM Saturday November 17, 2018 8:32 PM PST (04:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 12:46AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 815 Pm Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..N wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog developing.
Sun..N wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Patchy morning fog.
Sun night..N wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog.
Mon and Mon night..NE wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft or less.
Wed and Thu..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 815 Pm Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..High pres E of the cascades with lower pres offshore will keep the flow easterly through Tuesday. A weakening frontal system is anticipated to move across the area on Wednesday. A stronger system may follow on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferndale, WA
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location: 48.79, -122.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 180430
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
830 pm pst Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis High pressure aloft will maintain the cool dry weather
pattern through Tuesday. Areas of night and morning fog or
freezing fog will give way to afternoon sunshine. A series of
weather systems will bring wet weather by the middle of next week
through the holiday weekend.

Short term
No major changes to the previous forecast thinking: an upper
level ridge centered along 130w will shift directly over the
pacific northwest through Tuesday. Dry weather will persist along
with some patchy fog night and morning fog or freezing fog in
prone sheltered valleys.

The sea-eat gradient may reach -10 mb overnight so there could be
some brief localized gap winds, but gusts to 30 or 35 mph will
likely remain near the pass summits.

The upper ridge finally shifts inland by Tuesday allowing deep
southerly flow to develop over the west coast. This flow direction
could allow wildfire smoke from ca to lift north again into
oregon western wa. This potential for a brief smoke intrusion
around Tuesday of next week could cause some hazy conditions with
worsening air quality for roughly 24 hours. A front on Wednesday
should create a lot of mixing and should improve air quality issues
if any arise.

Long term from the previous discussion
Models indicate a pronounced pattern change by around Wednesday
of next week, through the holiday weekend. A series of stronger
systems will bring rain at times to the region, but the progressive
flow and pronounced split will likely reduce rainfall amounts.

See the hydrology section below for details. Temperatures will
cool slightly by next Friday and Saturday, but not far off the
average for this time of year. Highs mostly upper 40s to low 50s
with lows in the 30s to around 40. Mercer

Aviation
No major changes to the previous forecast thinking: high pressure
and offshore flow will lead to dry and stable conditions across
western wa. The flow aloft is northerly with E NE winds at the
surface. Skies are clear but may see patchy shallow fog near the
sound early Sunday morning. Otherwise, expectVFR conditions. 33
ksea... N NE winds to 8-15 kt. Patchy low clouds may form near the
sound Sunday morning but will be shallow and short- lived. 33

Marine
No major changes to the previous forecast thinking: offshore
flow will prevail across western wa through early next week due
to strong high pressure east of the cascades. Winds are N NE over
the waters with small craft advisories in effect, specifically for
the west entrance and adjacent coastal waters. Winds will ease
this evening. The next frontal system will approach the region on
Tuesday then split and weaken as it moves inland on Wednesday. 33

Hydrology
River flooding is not anticipated the next 7 days; however, there
is a slight risk the skokomish river could flood by the end of
upcoming week.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 7 mi39 min 1025.4 hPa
CPMW1 7 mi39 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 49°F
46118 7 mi38 min 42°F 1024.7 hPa37°F
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 25 mi63 min NE 4.1 40°F 1025 hPa34°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 25 mi57 min N 1.9 G 5.1 44°F 50°F1025.1 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 34 mi43 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 46°F 1025.2 hPa (-0.4)38°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 41 mi43 min N 12 G 12 47°F 49°F1 ft1025 hPa (-0.6)40°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 47 mi39 min WSW 4.1 G 7 44°F 50°F1025.8 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA7 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair34°F30°F85%1026 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA13 mi38 minVar 310.00 miFair46°F41°F82%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N13N11
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N12N10N9N9N7N5N7CalmNE3NE4NE5N8N9N8NE9N10N5NW4NW3N3Calm
1 day agoSE11SE12
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S6S10S653SE3CalmW3CalmN3CalmN6N8N12
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2 days agoS6S9S8S5S4S5S8S8SE9S6S5S7S7
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G24

Tide / Current Tables for Sandy Point, Lummi Bay, Washington
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Sandy Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:47 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:08 AM PST     2.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:14 PM PST     8.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:33 PM PST     3.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.25.14.643.32.82.62.83.54.767.38.38.88.6875.94.843.53.53.94.6

Tide / Current Tables for Clark Island, 1.6 mile North of, Washington Current
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Clark Island
Click for MapFlood direction 335 true
Ebb direction 150 true

Sat -- 12:47 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:51 AM PST     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:51 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:47 AM PST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:02 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:06 PM PST     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:53 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.200.30.60.70.50.30-0.4-0.8-1.1-1-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.10

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.