Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Roberts, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 4:26PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 5:12 AM PST (13:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:41PMMoonset 4:09AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 254 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..E wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Areas of morning fog.
Tonight..E wind 10 kt or less, becoming se 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft or less.
Wed..SE wind rising to 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves building to 2 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..SE wind 15 to 25 kt easing late. Wind waves 1 to 4 ft subsiding late.
Thu..SE wind rising to 25 to 35 kt. Wind waves building to 3 to 6 ft.
Thu night and Fri..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 1 to 4 ft.
Sat..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 1 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 254 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Higher pres E of the cascades with lower pres offshore will keep the flow mainly easterly today. A weak cold front extending from a 998 mb low will approach from the W tonight. This front will move across the washington coastal waters on Wednesday, and probably dissipate as it moves onshore. A stronger frontal system will impact the area on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Roberts, WA
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location: 48.98, -123.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 201121
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
321 am pst Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will move east across the area today,
allowing one more day of dry weather. The first in a series of
weather system will move across the area Wednesday bringing light
rain to the area. A stronger system is expected thanksgiving day
with widespread lowland rain and mountain snow likely. Rain will
continue Friday with a brief break Saturday. Unsettled weather
returns Sunday thru much of next week.

Short term
A loop of the morning water vapor imagery reveals a ridge of high
pressure across the western us... With axis oriented roughly from
the great basin north into the northern rockies. This ridge will
continue to shift eastward thru the day today as progressive
pattern pushes an elongated trough currently located along 140w
as of 11z eastward across the eastern pacific towards the
washington coastline. Numerous perturbations can be depicted
within this larger scale trough... With extensive cloud cover
evident to the trough's east. Meanwhile... At the sfc a strong
ridge of high pressure lies east of the cascades across the
intermountain west with the next cold frontal system offshore the
pacific and associated with the aforementioned trough.

For today... Morning IR imagery... Courtesy of goes-17... Is showing
extensive fog developing across the southern portion of puget
sound... With obs indicating some vsbys under 1 mile. Extent of
this fog coverage thru the morning will be tricky given seattle
profiler data showing sharp but very shallow inversion in the
lower levels. Where fog does reach, it will continue to be thick
thru sunrise. Morning clearing should then commence... However...

extensive cloud shield ahead of the approaching trough will be on
it way thru the day as the upper level ridge continues its journey
east and away from the local area. Morning Sun should give way to
increasing clouds from the west thru the afternoon. Today should
remain dry... As the first in a series of shortwaves rotating about
the large scale trough traverses atop the ridge into canada.

Protection from the ridge will be on a rapid decline across
western washington tonight as the longwave trough inches closer to
the coastline with sfc frontal system in close proximity.

Increasing energy at h5 along with weak yet noticeable lift in the
right entrance region of jet streak should give way to rain
shower activity spreading east across the area fairly quickly thru
the day Wednesday. Snow levels should remain above 5000ft and no
significant accumulations are expected across higher terrain.

There will not be much of a break Wednesday night into Thursday
thanksgiving day as the next in a series of shortwaves moves into
the region. Thursday's shortwave will take on a slightly negative
tilt as agreed upon by both deterministic GFS and ecmwf. Strong
dynamics will bring another round of widespread heavier rain with
snow levels dropping to between 3000-4000ft. It still looks
possible that snow advisory criteria may be met across the passes,
as guidance is suggestive of several inches of snow across the
majority of the cascades. This event will need to be monitored
closely over the next 24hrs. As mentioned in the previous
forecast... Accumulations in the passes will probably cause travel
difficulty. Those planning travel through mountain passes should
pay close attention to current forecasts and check on road
conditions by calling 5-1-1 before departing.

By Friday... The next in a series of shortwaves will move across
the area from the northwest. This looks to be a closed low with
colder mid level temperatures... However... Does not seem to have
quite as much moisture than the thanksgiving day system, though
snow levels will drop even further to around 3000ft. This system
will depart quickly to the SE Friday night. Additional snowfall
accumulations thru Friday night across the higher terrain do not
seem significant at this time. In addition, lowland snow does not
appear to be an issue at this time either.

Kovacik

Long term
Finally, a break seems to be in store for the local area on
Saturday in the wake of the departing wave at the end of the short
term. Both the GFS and ECMWF attempt to build a shortwave ridge
over the region... Just ahead of the next storm system. Have
trended Saturday slightly drier than the previous forecast for
this reason... Tho there could be some lingering light rain
showers thru a good portion of the day.

The break on Saturday will be short-lived as the next shortwave
and frontal system approach Saturday night and into Sunday.

Scattered showers look probable to close out the weekend. It's
then possible there could be another brief break on Monday before
strong eastern pacific troughing becomes better established and
aims the storm track at the pacnw. Looks to be another unsettled
week next week.

Kovacik

Aviation
Upper ridge axis near the idaho border will continue to
progress eastward today with increasing southerly flow aloft over
the area. The air mass is dry and stable this morning except for
some low level moisture over the interior lowlands of western
washington. Easterly gap flow through the cascades and over parts of
the coast continues this morning, but gradients are light through
puget sound. This has allowed a considerably stronger surface-based
inversion to develop with shallow, dense fog forming over the
southwest interior as well as parts of the puget sound hood canal
area this morning. Ifr lifr conditions with surface visibilities a
half mile or less in fog are expected at times around the puget
sound area and southwest interior terminals through 18z.

A developing frontal system approaching the offshore waters will
spread increasing high and mid level moisture across the region from
later this morning through the day. As the cloud cover thickens
tonight, this should limit the possibility of more fog.

Ksea... Goes-17 fog imagery shows plenty of low clouds to west of sea-
tac as of 0930z. Our atmospheric profiler here at NWS seattle shows
a pretty substantial (but shallow) inversion below about 200 meters.

This combined with the continuing easterly flow across the cascades
complicates the forecast and doesn't lend a lot of confidence in the
fog forecast. With the shallow nature of the inversion and easterly
flow just above it, some fog could make it into sea-tac at times
this morning. But, much like yesterday morning, it could remain
mostly to the west of the airport. I am inclined to go the route of
a tempo fog forecast rather than prevailing condition this morning
and adjust as necessary. Apart from that,VFR today by late morning
with increasing high and mid clouds. Surface winds light and
variable becoming light southeasterly after 06z tonight. 27

Marine
Higher pressure east of the cascades with lower pressure
offshore will keep the flow mainly easterly today. A weak cold
front extending from a 998 mb low will approach from the west
tonight. This front will move across the wa coastal waters on
Wednesday, and probably dissipate as it moves onshore.

Regarding the Thursday Friday system: confidence in the forecast
remained low because the models are not very consistent from run
to run. The weaker solutions are now stronger while the stronger
(gfs) solution was now slightly weaker. The current wind forecast
leans toward the stronger model solutions. There is a possibility
of gale force winds over much of the waters if the stronger
solutions end up verifying.

Hydrology
River flooding is still not anticipated the next 7 days; however,
there will be some rises on area rivers towards the end of this
week.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 pm pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james
island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from james island to
point grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point
grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 4 pm pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james
island out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point
grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to
cape shoalwater out 10 nm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPMW1 19 mi43 min ENE 12 G 14 45°F 49°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 19 mi43 min 1016.5 hPa
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 30 mi97 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 49°F1016.8 hPa
46118 32 mi78 min 37°F 1016 hPa36°F
46146 - Halibut Bank 42 mi73 min S 3.9 G 3.9 45°F 46°F1016.5 hPa (-1.2)
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 45 mi53 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 46°F 49°F1016.2 hPa44°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 47 mi83 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 1016.5 hPa (-0.8)43°F
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 48 mi43 min NE 1 30°F 1017 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA21 mi18 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist36°F35°F100%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ORS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmNW7NW6CalmNW4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalm333
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmN3N43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3
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Tide / Current Tables for Tsawwassen, British Columbia
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Tsawwassen
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Tue -- 03:41 AM PST     11.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:09 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:29 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:43 AM PST     8.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:43 PM PST     13.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:41 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:25 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:36 PM PST     4.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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89.410.711.411.611.110.39.48.68.591011.112.21313.112.511.29.37.45.64.64.45.2

Tide / Current Tables for Boat Passage, British Columbia Current
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Boat Passage
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:13 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:09 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:04 AM PST     -2.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:29 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:50 AM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:44 AM PST     2.97 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:35 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:41 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:06 PM PST     -4.26 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:16 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:28 PM PST     4.34 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.90.4-1.2-2.3-2.8-2.4-1.30.21.72.72.92.31-0.7-2.4-3.7-4.3-3.9-2.6-0.61.53.34.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.