Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oroville, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:02AMSunset 8:47PM Thursday May 23, 2019 10:29 AM PDT (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:32AMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oroville, WA
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location: 49.16, -119.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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Fxus66 kotx 231148
afdotx
area forecast discussion
national weather service spokane wa
448 am pdt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Temperatures will be warmer today with highs into the 70s and
low 80s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
northern cascades and okanogan highlands this afternoon. Friday
and Saturday will feature a good chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms for most of the inland northwest. A few showers
linger over the southeast Sunday and Monday, otherwise drier
weather is expected.

Discussion
Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rain possible Friday
and Saturday...

today and tonight: the weather over the inland NW will be influenced
by two features. One will be a broad area of low pressure
ejecting northeast through the intermountain west and a second
will be a shortwave approaching from the north. The combination of
these feature will result in a net cooling aloft of 1-2 celsius
at 500 mb resulting in upward trend of afternoon instability, and
increasing risk for showers and possible thunderstorms. Confidence
is highest over the northern cascades and okanogan highlands
where models have been most consistent. SREF probabilities for
thunder also support thunderstorms in these areas and majority of
our hi-res cam models indicate isolated cells developing over the
higher terrain and drifting southward. A few models suggest some
storms will survive the trip into the lower terrain along the hwy
97 corridor between omak and wenatchee and around grand coulee and
wilbur but this carries lower confidence given modest cin
(convective inhibition) in place. While brief downpours will be
possible with this activity, today carries a low threat for
flooding with storms expected to be moving southward at 15-20 mph
and pwats only around half an inch.

The second area of focus will be across extreme SE wa and the idaho
panhandle. The slug of energy pivoting around the northern
periphery of the upper-low lifting into utah wyoming will clip
these areas and could result in enough lift to generate a few
showers. A stray thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out but
overall confidence is very low. Shower t-storm activity in these
southeast zones have not been a consistent message in the models
but given the earlier reasoning and increasing support from the
00z runs, we have introduced a slight chance for this afternoon
and early evening.

Winds this morning will start off from the north and northeast with
locally breezy conditions through the idaho panhandle and columbia
basin but look for pressure gradients to weaken throughout the
day as winds become more northwesterly. Temperatures this
afternoon will top out in the 70s to low 80s... 2-4 degrees warmer
than Wednesday.

Friday: Friday will be quite unsettled across the region as low pressure
deepens while dropping south through central wa. This event will
get going early Friday morning with showers expected to blossom
across much of eastern wa and N id as a cold front swings inland
around the base of the low. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of
thunder during the early morning hours given modest lift and steep
lapse rates but the focus for slow moving thunderstorms capable
of heavy rainfall will during the afternoon following a few hours
of heating. Just about every location will stand a shot for
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. The greatest
risk will focus north of a line from chelan to ritzville to
pullman but cloud cover is likely to create a chaotic environment
for pockets of better instability (ie heating vs others). This
will be a different setup vs last Thursday's storms with the main
system coming from the north vs the south. Surface temperatures
will be cooler only reaching the 60s to maybe low 70s, and pwats
will be around 0.7-0.8" vs over an inch last weak. Therefore cape
will be lower and storms will not be able to survive as long given
weaker effective shear. The concern however, will be the slow
movement and if Sun breaks are ample, cells will be capable of a
quick half to three quarters of an inch before collapsing. A far
cry from the 1" per hour observed last week but still enough to
cause issues on burn scars and in urban areas. Gusty west to
southwest winds will develop on the southern periphery of the low
impacting wenatchee... Ritzville... Pomeroy... And pullman. These
winds will be associated with the strong cold advection and
feature speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts near 35 mph. These winds
could come as far north as spokane but subtle differences with the
exact placement of the surface low leads to some uncertainty. Sb
Friday night through Saturday... We are still looking at a trough
of low pressure dropping south along the b.C. Coast on Friday. But
the latest model runs are all in agreement that a second, and
perhaps even stronger wave will follow closely on Saturday.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms were already in the forecast
for Saturday, but for the morning forecast pops and chances of
showers and afternoon thunderstorms were increases and expanded in
coverage. It does appear that the best chances will be along the
cascade crest east across the northern mountains and along the
id mt border. Moisture remains quite deep and this will bring the
potential for another round of localized heavy rain. This will
also hold of on the warming trend that we expected by at least one
day.

Sunday and Monday... The low pressure system is still expected to
slide south and east of the region during this time. Wrap around
moisture will keep a chance of showers and late day thunderstorms
in the forecast for the higher terrain outside of the columbia
basin, just not as widespread or with the intensity we will see on
Saturday. The advertised warming trend will begin Sunday with
temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s and mid 70s with
another 3-5 degree rise on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday... The inland northwest will be caught between
a deep low pressure system in the gulf of alaska and another up
by hudson's bay. That puts the region in a rather dry west-
northwest flow. Some lingering mid-level moisture and the
northwest flow will result in isolated afternoon showers near the
cascade crest and for the panhandle mountains, but these should be
light. Temperatures will remain 5-7 degrees on the warm side of
normal. Tobin

Aviation
12z tafs: a shortwave dropping in from bc will bring a threat for
showers and thunderstorms in the cascades. This activity will
struggle to come off the higher terrain but has the potential to
briefly impact keat. A few convective cells will also develop
along the mt id border but confidence is lower with drier air
currently in place. A stronger storm system will bring increasing
clouds and widespread showers after 10z-13z... Followed by a threat
for thunderstorms mainly kcoe-kgeg-komk Friday afternoon. Breezy
northeast winds this morning will become light from NW this
evening and swing to the south after 06z. Sb

Preliminary point temps pops
Spokane 76 49 65 45 65 49 0 10 70 50 30 20
coeur d'alene 76 48 65 45 67 48 0 10 70 50 30 20
pullman 73 48 64 43 63 45 0 10 50 30 30 20
lewiston 79 54 72 50 70 52 0 10 60 30 30 20
colville 81 43 69 41 70 41 0 10 80 60 50 30
sandpoint 74 48 64 47 65 48 0 10 80 50 50 30
kellogg 72 49 63 47 64 49 0 10 80 40 50 30
moses lake 83 53 76 47 72 50 0 10 60 40 20 20
wenatchee 81 57 73 52 69 53 0 10 50 30 40 30
omak 80 53 70 50 68 51 10 10 80 60 60 30

Otx watches warnings advisories
Id... None.

Wa... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Omak Airport, WA50 mi37 minN 710.00 miFair66°F43°F43%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from OMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N7N7NW7N7SW3W63CalmCalmW4SW4W73W4CalmN3NW4W3CalmCalmNE3N7N7
1 day agoN15
G20
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N13N12
G18
N13N11N13N15N10N8NW10N8N8N10N11N11N12N9N9N8N10N12N12N9
2 days agoCalm3SW8SW11SW8S7S7S5S4CalmS3CalmS8SW4NW4NW6NW3N9N7N9N6N7N9N16
G20

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Spokane, WA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Spokane, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.