Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Metaline Falls, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 9:32PM Thursday May 23, 2019 5:44 PM MDT (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 12:26AMMoonset 9:01AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metaline Falls, WA
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location: 49.49, -117.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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Fxus66 kotx 232336
afdotx
area forecast discussion
national weather service spokane wa
436 pm pdt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
northern cascades and okanogan highlands this evening. Friday
and Saturday will feature a good chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms for most of the inland northwest. Areas of showers
continue Sunday, with breezy conditions. Some mountain showers and
thunderstorm chances linger into next week, but overall the risk
is limited and drier weather will be more dominant. Expect cool
temperatures through Saturday, then gradual warming into next
week.

Discussion
Tonight through Friday evening: satellite field of motion this
afternoon shows the inland northwest existing between two weather
systems... A broad upper closed low circulating over the great
basin to the south... And an incoming upper level wave dropping out
of the northwest with the cellular cumulus development over
british columbia indicative of the cooler air aloft in the cusp of
this trough. Some of this afternoon instability has leaked down
into the north cascades and this area will be the recipient of
isolated thunderstorms this evening before things stabilize after
sunset for a relatively quiet but increasingly cloudy overnight
period across the region.

Friday will be a quite active weather day for the region. Models
are consistent over multiple runs and in pretty good agreement
depicting the incoming upper trough will evolving into a closed
low circulation overnight tonight as it descends southward into
washington state by morning. A moderate feed of pacific moisture
will be drawn into the region ahead of this upper low tonight and
then wrap around the low during the day tomorrow providing plenty
of moisture for showers around the region. Multiple hi res models
suggest a deformation region of showers developing over eastern
washington along the northeast flank of the arriving upper low
around dawn tomorrow... With the axis of this precipitation running
form the north cascades to the pullman area. During the morning
hours these showers will be generally non-thunder producers,
however by noon and through early evening the cool pool aloft
combined with surface heating especially from sunbreaks between
cells will destabilize the air mass resulting in scattered
thunderstorms. Just about anywhere in the forecast area may
experience a brief thunderstorm on Friday... But the best chances
will be for those areas north and east of a line from about omak
to lewiston.

Stability parameters... Moisture fields and sounding analysis
suggest these will be generally garden variety spring time pulse
thunderstorms with brief downpours and small hail in their
cores... Slow movement but short lives... Occasional
lightning... And potential small scale outflow gusts to around 30
to 35 mph. Nothing severe is expected and no sustained monster
rain producers like last Thursday's storms are expected. The main
threat besides occasional lightning will be the potential for
some of these slow moving storms tracking across recent burn
scars... Fortunately it appears the expansive scars of the cascades
will be outside of the most active threat area.

Friday evening the synoptic set up with the nearby closed low and
moist deformation region is slow to change. Thunderstorm activity
will decrease quickly after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating... But residual scattered rain showers will probably be
persistent and linger far into the evening. Fugazzi
Friday night through Thursday: the inland northwest will see
several opportunities for precipitation through Sunday, before
the better precipitation threat retreats to the mountains.

Through Sunday the area will remain under the influence of the
long-wave upper trough over western north america and the couple
shortwaves pivoting around it. The first shortwave tracks along
the wa or border Friday night, weakening in response to the
second shortwave that drops down the pacific northwest coast
through the weekend. A deformation axis wavering over our region
will work with moisture wrapped up in it, some of the dynamics
associated with these passing shortwaves, along with the ebb and
flow of instability to bring shower and thunderstorm chances.

The focus for this precipitation will vary from period to period.

First Friday night the threat will be broad, though coverage is
expected to be locally higher around the mountains and away from
the lee of the cascades. Coverage will also decrease after dark,
as will the threat of thunderstorms. Saturday the focus for more
more numerous showers shifts to the cascades and northern mountain
zones in the vicinity of the deformation axis in that region,
with more widely scattered to isolated showers elsewhere. A chance
for thunderstorms will also be found along the canadian border
and over the idaho panhandle mountain zones in the afternoon
heating. However these are not expected to be as strong as the
potential thunderstorms on Friday. The thunderstorm threat will
wane again after dark. Saturday night into Sunday model agreement
starts to waver, though in general the coastal low tracks south
toward ca and then into the great basin. This leaves some
wrap-around moisture and a deformation axis across our region.

However models diverge over its precise location and strength. So
they start to disagree over where the precipitation focus will be
highest. On average models keep the higher threat near the
cascades and northern mountains Saturday night into Sunday
morning, then start to shift the boundary south and precipitation
focus expands with it. The outlier model at this point is the
nam, which focuses most of the precipitation over the southeast
cwa. However it is not the favored solution as this point. There
will be a limited threat of thunderstorms over the southeast cwa
Sunday afternoon where some instability lingers.

Winds will be breezy at least for some of the region this
weekend. Saturday the area will be in a southerly flow with a
localized breezy conditions early in the day across the columbia
basin lower palouse into spokane area, as low pressure tracks down
the coast. Speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph will be
possible. The flow is interrupted later Saturday into Sunday
morning, transitioning to a more northeast direction. Then Sunday
afternoon and evening the area will be in a squeeze play once
again between high pressure over canada and low pressure to the
south. This places areas from north idaho out into the columbia
basin to the lee of the cascades in some breezy conditions. These
are expected to be in the 10-20 mph range with locally higher
gusts possible, especially in the afternoon.

Sunday night into Monday morning the area transitions to a more
diffuse pattern, with all the forcing mechanism weakening. The
overall threat of showers and thunderstorms retreats to the
mountains and dissipates. This remains the average set-up through
mid-week with primarily low chances of mountain shower and
thunderstorms each afternoon. Toward later next week models carry
another wave toward the region with another a broader threat of
showers. However at this time this system looks weak.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal Saturday under the
trough. On Sunday temperatures start to moderate, however precise
values may be lower in some spots depending on where steadier
precipitation lays. Thereafter temperatures start to warm into the
new workweek, with some upper-70s to low 80s for some Wednesday
on. Cote

Aviation
00z tafs: weak weather disturbances dropping down over the
aviation area from the northwest will continue to allow for
spotty showers, primarily over the cascades into this evening.

A stronger weather disturbance will bring rain showers to
many locations as early as 12z with scattered thunderstorms
after 18z tomorrow. Pelatti

Preliminary point temps pops
Spokane 49 63 45 64 49 69 10 70 60 30 20 30
coeur d'alene 48 61 45 65 49 69 10 70 60 30 40 30
pullman 48 62 42 63 45 68 10 60 50 20 20 40
lewiston 54 69 49 69 51 75 10 50 40 30 20 50
colville 43 68 41 72 43 76 10 70 60 60 50 30
sandpoint 48 63 47 64 49 67 10 80 50 40 50 30
kellogg 49 59 47 62 49 65 10 80 60 40 50 40
moses lake 53 71 47 70 49 76 10 60 30 20 20 20
wenatchee 57 68 51 67 52 73 10 50 20 40 30 30
omak 53 65 51 67 51 73 10 80 40 60 40 30

Otx watches warnings advisories
Id... None.

Wa... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boundary County Airport, ID75 mi49 minW 610.00 miFair73°F32°F22%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from 65S (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3SE9SE4NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW3W5W4NW6NW4
1 day agoNE8
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NE7NE6NE9N8N7N6N8NW7NW4CalmSE4NE6NW6NE4E4NE11
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2 days agoNE4NE5NE5NE7NE5NE5E3NW4CalmN4N5N6NE6NW7N6N6N7N9N5N7N7NW9N10
G14
N10

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Spokane, WA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Spokane, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.