Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Metaline Falls, WA
May 16, 2024 5:11 PM MDT (23:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 9:24 PM Moonrise 1:18 PM Moonset 2:45 AM |
FXUS66 KOTX 162209 AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 309 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
The arrival of a vigorous cold front this afternoon and evening will produce widespread windy conditions, with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph across parts of central and eastern Washington and down to the Lewiston and Camas Prairie region. Gusty west winds will continue into Friday, with significantly cooler temperatures.
Seasonably cool and showery weather is expected this weekend into next week.
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Saturday Night: A robust cold front with an associated strong upper level jet will move into the region this evening. There is a 20% chance of showers this evening along the US/Canadian border and a 50-60% chance along the crest of the Cascades. The more significant impact will be the windy conditions that are already being seen across the region. Gusts to 40 mph have already been reported around Douglas, Entiat, Moses Lake, Spokane, and Athol. Dodson Road just west of Moses Lake, Moses Lake and the Omak area are reporting reduced visibilities with some blowing dust. Winds will peak with the front this evening.
Locally, gusts could reach 50 mph.
*Impacts would include blowing dust across portions of the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley, especially near any recently plowed or worked fields; small branches broken; isolated power outages; rough waters on area lakes and the Columbia River; and unsecured objects being blown around.
Winds will continue through the night, tho not be as strong as with the front, but enough to warrant the wind advisories continuing. There is a 30-40% chance of showers developing across portions of the Idaho Panhandle and extreme eastern WA overnight and early Friday morning.
Winds will continue through Friday morning before decreasing in the afternoon. The upper level trough moves into the area with cold 500 mb temps. Have a 20% of afternoon thunderstorms for northeast Washington the the ID Panhandle with a 30-50% chance of showers.
Saturday another wave moves into the region which will provide more showers, especially across northern WA and ID.
Temperatures will be below average with highs in the 60s. Low temps tonight will be in the mid 30s to near 50, because of the winds keeping things well mixed. Low temps go down for Sat and Sunday morning into the mid 30s to low 40s, with some of the typical cold spots potentially reaching near freezing (Republic, Colville, Deer Park, Priest Lake) with frost possible. /Nisbet
Sunday: Model consensus remains high that a strong upper level low will be parked over extreme eastern WA and N ID during the morning hours before trudging slowly into SW MT by the afternoon. This will equate to wet and rather cool weather with numerous showers expected in and around the low. There will also be a chance of afternoon thunderstorms as 500 mb temperatures will be -25c or colder which will result in small CAPEs over NE WA into N ID. Precipitation amounts won’t be terribly heavy due to a relatively dry precipitable water content, however slow moving showers/storms could produce moderate amounts over isolated locations. Overall we expect precipitation amounts to range from a few hundredths of an inch to around a tenth of an inch. Over central Washington we expect little if any precipitation. High temperatures will be cool with readings in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Monday will likely be the “driest/warmest” day of the next 7 as there is good model agreement that we will see a brief shortwave ridge build over the region. The GEFS solutions are a little less sure of the ridging and hold onto some residual instability primarily over extreme E WA and the ID Panhandle. As such we will hold onto a small chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms, but this only represents about a quarter of the ensemble solutions. High temperatures will bounce back from the cool Sunday readings with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday through Thursday: Ensemble agreement is very good that the next strong upper level low will move into the region sometime Tuesday and remain entrenched over the area through Thursday. This will equate to a renewed chance of showers each day with a small chance of thunderstorms. Once again, the precipitable water values will remain low and thus the total precipitation amounts will be relatively light. For the three day period precipitation amounts will likely range from 0.15-0.30” for most of eastern WA, 0.20-0.50” for the ID Panhandle, and less than 0.10” for central WA. Meanwhile high temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s and 60s. fx
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: Scattered rain showers will develop over the Cascades and mountainous terrain near the Canadian border north of Colville and Sandpoint as the cold front moves inland. Post frontal showers will increase over the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington overnight with ceilings above 5000 feet. The Pullman and Coeur d'Alene TAFs have mention of these showers after 06z.
West winds are expected to produce gusts to 30kts along and behind the cold front this afternoon and evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility reduction to 6SM with blowing dust has a low probability of occurrence, but is in the MWH TAF. Dust is just as much a function of recent field work as it is wind speed. This is the season for planting corn and beans in the irrigated fields near Moses Lake so the potential is there for localized visibility reduction with dust.
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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 43 63 39 63 40 60 / 10 20 0 10 20 30 Coeur d'Alene 44 59 38 60 39 56 / 40 40 10 10 30 40 Pullman 43 58 37 61 38 57 / 40 20 0 0 20 20 Lewiston 51 67 43 69 44 64 / 20 10 0 0 10 20 Colville 36 64 33 62 35 60 / 20 30 10 50 50 60 Sandpoint 43 57 37 58 38 55 / 30 60 20 40 50 70 Kellogg 43 54 40 58 41 52 / 60 60 10 20 30 60 Moses Lake 43 69 40 69 40 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 46 64 44 64 43 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 42 69 39 66 40 68 / 0 10 0 20 20 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.
WA...Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.
Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 309 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
The arrival of a vigorous cold front this afternoon and evening will produce widespread windy conditions, with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph across parts of central and eastern Washington and down to the Lewiston and Camas Prairie region. Gusty west winds will continue into Friday, with significantly cooler temperatures.
Seasonably cool and showery weather is expected this weekend into next week.
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Saturday Night: A robust cold front with an associated strong upper level jet will move into the region this evening. There is a 20% chance of showers this evening along the US/Canadian border and a 50-60% chance along the crest of the Cascades. The more significant impact will be the windy conditions that are already being seen across the region. Gusts to 40 mph have already been reported around Douglas, Entiat, Moses Lake, Spokane, and Athol. Dodson Road just west of Moses Lake, Moses Lake and the Omak area are reporting reduced visibilities with some blowing dust. Winds will peak with the front this evening.
Locally, gusts could reach 50 mph.
*Impacts would include blowing dust across portions of the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley, especially near any recently plowed or worked fields; small branches broken; isolated power outages; rough waters on area lakes and the Columbia River; and unsecured objects being blown around.
Winds will continue through the night, tho not be as strong as with the front, but enough to warrant the wind advisories continuing. There is a 30-40% chance of showers developing across portions of the Idaho Panhandle and extreme eastern WA overnight and early Friday morning.
Winds will continue through Friday morning before decreasing in the afternoon. The upper level trough moves into the area with cold 500 mb temps. Have a 20% of afternoon thunderstorms for northeast Washington the the ID Panhandle with a 30-50% chance of showers.
Saturday another wave moves into the region which will provide more showers, especially across northern WA and ID.
Temperatures will be below average with highs in the 60s. Low temps tonight will be in the mid 30s to near 50, because of the winds keeping things well mixed. Low temps go down for Sat and Sunday morning into the mid 30s to low 40s, with some of the typical cold spots potentially reaching near freezing (Republic, Colville, Deer Park, Priest Lake) with frost possible. /Nisbet
Sunday: Model consensus remains high that a strong upper level low will be parked over extreme eastern WA and N ID during the morning hours before trudging slowly into SW MT by the afternoon. This will equate to wet and rather cool weather with numerous showers expected in and around the low. There will also be a chance of afternoon thunderstorms as 500 mb temperatures will be -25c or colder which will result in small CAPEs over NE WA into N ID. Precipitation amounts won’t be terribly heavy due to a relatively dry precipitable water content, however slow moving showers/storms could produce moderate amounts over isolated locations. Overall we expect precipitation amounts to range from a few hundredths of an inch to around a tenth of an inch. Over central Washington we expect little if any precipitation. High temperatures will be cool with readings in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Monday will likely be the “driest/warmest” day of the next 7 as there is good model agreement that we will see a brief shortwave ridge build over the region. The GEFS solutions are a little less sure of the ridging and hold onto some residual instability primarily over extreme E WA and the ID Panhandle. As such we will hold onto a small chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms, but this only represents about a quarter of the ensemble solutions. High temperatures will bounce back from the cool Sunday readings with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday through Thursday: Ensemble agreement is very good that the next strong upper level low will move into the region sometime Tuesday and remain entrenched over the area through Thursday. This will equate to a renewed chance of showers each day with a small chance of thunderstorms. Once again, the precipitable water values will remain low and thus the total precipitation amounts will be relatively light. For the three day period precipitation amounts will likely range from 0.15-0.30” for most of eastern WA, 0.20-0.50” for the ID Panhandle, and less than 0.10” for central WA. Meanwhile high temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s and 60s. fx
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: Scattered rain showers will develop over the Cascades and mountainous terrain near the Canadian border north of Colville and Sandpoint as the cold front moves inland. Post frontal showers will increase over the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington overnight with ceilings above 5000 feet. The Pullman and Coeur d'Alene TAFs have mention of these showers after 06z.
West winds are expected to produce gusts to 30kts along and behind the cold front this afternoon and evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility reduction to 6SM with blowing dust has a low probability of occurrence, but is in the MWH TAF. Dust is just as much a function of recent field work as it is wind speed. This is the season for planting corn and beans in the irrigated fields near Moses Lake so the potential is there for localized visibility reduction with dust.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 43 63 39 63 40 60 / 10 20 0 10 20 30 Coeur d'Alene 44 59 38 60 39 56 / 40 40 10 10 30 40 Pullman 43 58 37 61 38 57 / 40 20 0 0 20 20 Lewiston 51 67 43 69 44 64 / 20 10 0 0 10 20 Colville 36 64 33 62 35 60 / 20 30 10 50 50 60 Sandpoint 43 57 37 58 38 55 / 30 60 20 40 50 70 Kellogg 43 54 40 58 41 52 / 60 60 10 20 30 60 Moses Lake 43 69 40 69 40 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 46 64 44 64 43 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 42 69 39 66 40 68 / 0 10 0 20 20 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.
WA...Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.
Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
Spokane, WA,
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