Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Attu Station, AK
May 13, 2024 3:44 AM ChST (17:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 6:40 PM Moonrise 6:55 AM Moonset 12:14 AM |
PKZ786 Kiska To Attu Bering Side- 351 Am Akdt Sun May 12 2024
.small craft advisory through Monday - .
Today - N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Tonight - W wind 15 kt becoming sw 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Mon - S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Mon night - SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
Tue - W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
Wed - SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Thu - SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
PKZ700
No data
No data
FXAK68 PAFC 121300 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 AM AKDT Sun May 12 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Tuesday night)...
A weak low and associated occluded front are dissipating along the North Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound areas this morning, with steady precipitation transitioning to showers. Multiple weak short-waves rounding the upper low center are producing isolated showers inland from the coastal mountains. A short-wave which ejected out of the long-wave trough yesterday has formed a low over the eastern Interior near the ALCAN border. This has been producing steady light precipitation along portions of the Tok Cutoff from around Slana to Mentasta Pass. Webcams show some fresh snow accumulation through Mentasta Pass, but the snow has not stuck to the roadway. This precipitation is tapering off early this morning as the low drifts northward. With extensive cloud cover across the region, temperatures have held to a narrow range, but have slowly dropped into the 30s for most locations.
The upper level low will open into a trough and exit to the Yukon later today. In it's wake, weak vorticity maxima will rotate around a short-wave ridge centered over interior Southcentral northward across the Alaska Range to the Alaska Interior. Weak upper level forcing combined with increasing breaks of sunshine and weak instability will produce isolated to scattered showers across the region. Meanwhile, a weak low and short-wave south of the eastern Aleutians this morning will track quickly along the base of the long-wave trough into the Gulf tonight. This will bring a quick shot of rain to Kodiak Island, mainly the east side of the island. The low will remain offshore as it continues across the Gulf on Monday, with little or no precipitation reaching the north Gulf coast.
The big story for Monday and Tuesday will be increasing amounts of sunshine and warmer and drier conditions. a couple distinct short-waves will track across interior Southwest Alaska Monday, but then quickly weaken as they reach Southcentral due to increasing anticyclonic flow along the front edge of an amplifying ridge (ahead of a deep low crossing the the Bering Sea). There could still be some diurnally driven showers near the mountains, but expect the bulk of the region to be dry.
-SEB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...
A weak, elongated low is moving south of the central and eastern Aleutian Chain this morning, producing areas of light rain and east to northeast small craft winds moving quickly east along the Chain. This low will skirt south of the AKpen later today, allowing quieter conditions and northerly flow to spread into most of the Bering Sea and Aleutians as a strong upper ridge builds into place behind this low. Across Southwest, there will be lingering influence from a decaying low now situated over the Gulf of Alaska as a messy upper trough continues to drift overhead.
By this afternoon, breaks in cloud cover already showing up on satellite this morning should allow for enough heating and low level destabilization for scattered showers to develop across much of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay. The lingering question is whether any of this can become deeply developed enough to produce any lightning, as forecast soundings still show a relatively warm, dry layer in the mid to upper levels that could keep showers rather low-topped today. There will be a couple weak upper perturbations rotating around the Gulf low into Southwest today, and this could be the tipping point providing enough lift to cool the upper levels and assist in allowing for a few thunderstorms developing along the Alaska Range, perhaps drifting out into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley before dissipating with loss of daytime heating later tonight. Additional rounds of showers will be possible on Monday, mainly near the Alaska Range out ahead of a shortwave trough digging south around the developing Bering ridge. However, instability looks even more marginal on Monday, and thunderstorms are unlikely.
Attention from there shifts to a much stronger system poised to affect a large portion of the outlook area later in the week. By Monday, a strong 970s-980s mb low moving off of Kamchatka will extend a warm front into the western Aleutians, with southerly winds picking up into gale force range along and behind the initial front across the western Aleutians and Bering A cold front will move in quickly behind the warm front and begin to occlude it on Tuesday morning, while the parent low moves farther into the far northern Bering Sea. High-end gale force southerly winds will spread east towards the central Aleutians and Pribilofs, while winds remain strong but turn westerly behind the cold front. Bands of light rain following both frontal features should also shift from the western Aleutians to the central Aleutians and past the Pribilofs on Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, the main low and trailing front will begin to weaken as the low center moves up towards St Lawrence Island.
Even so, guidance is beginning to show the wind field holding on for longer, and there is potential for 30 to 40 mph southerly winds to reach the Southwest coast as early as Tuesday afternoon, especially near the Kuskokwim Delta. It is too early at this time to determine exact potential for higher than normal water levels moving in with this system. However, coastal communities across the Kuskokwim Delta should continue to monitor the forecast for updates over the next couple days while we continue to follow this strong spring low pressure system.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...
For Southcentral...
By the long term, south central will be dried out and slowly warming with conditions returning to, or exceeding normal.
Ridging over much of the mainland will persist through the end of the week. Clouds will be intermittent across region but some afternoon showers will develop across the Wrangell mountains.
By the weekend, clouds and rain will return. A low pressure system will drop down from the northern Bering, south across southwest Alaska and into the Kodiak/Western Gulf of Alaska.
Present forecast guidance keeps this system only precipitating on Gulf communities, though there is a chance the system will shift north, bringing wider spreading rains to the mainland.
Overall, temperatures will continue to rise, with daytime highs warming (with no snow).
For Southwest and the Bering/Aleutians...
The first of two systems will move across the Bering Wednesday and Thursday. This system will drag a front across the Aleutian chain, bringing winds, rain and shifty winds will follow as this tracks east. The brunt of the winds, outside of the Bering, will be be focused towards Bethel into Wednesday evening. The next weather system will develop across the western Bering and move along the Aleutian chain. It is still too early to pin down specifics on the movement of this low a week out, but trends are sliding it south of Bristol Bay by the weekend.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light slight southwesterly winds this morning will give way to gusty southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm late this afternoon.
These winds will bend into the terminal with pressure gradients becoming favorable as a low pressure system passes south of Kodiak and re-orients the coastal ridge to the favorable east-to-west direction. Unlike an instability driven Turnagain Arm wind bending over the terminal with day-time heating, this will be mostly pressure gradient driven with southeast winds peaking this evening. Winds turn light and out of the north Monday morning.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 AM AKDT Sun May 12 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Tuesday night)...
A weak low and associated occluded front are dissipating along the North Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound areas this morning, with steady precipitation transitioning to showers. Multiple weak short-waves rounding the upper low center are producing isolated showers inland from the coastal mountains. A short-wave which ejected out of the long-wave trough yesterday has formed a low over the eastern Interior near the ALCAN border. This has been producing steady light precipitation along portions of the Tok Cutoff from around Slana to Mentasta Pass. Webcams show some fresh snow accumulation through Mentasta Pass, but the snow has not stuck to the roadway. This precipitation is tapering off early this morning as the low drifts northward. With extensive cloud cover across the region, temperatures have held to a narrow range, but have slowly dropped into the 30s for most locations.
The upper level low will open into a trough and exit to the Yukon later today. In it's wake, weak vorticity maxima will rotate around a short-wave ridge centered over interior Southcentral northward across the Alaska Range to the Alaska Interior. Weak upper level forcing combined with increasing breaks of sunshine and weak instability will produce isolated to scattered showers across the region. Meanwhile, a weak low and short-wave south of the eastern Aleutians this morning will track quickly along the base of the long-wave trough into the Gulf tonight. This will bring a quick shot of rain to Kodiak Island, mainly the east side of the island. The low will remain offshore as it continues across the Gulf on Monday, with little or no precipitation reaching the north Gulf coast.
The big story for Monday and Tuesday will be increasing amounts of sunshine and warmer and drier conditions. a couple distinct short-waves will track across interior Southwest Alaska Monday, but then quickly weaken as they reach Southcentral due to increasing anticyclonic flow along the front edge of an amplifying ridge (ahead of a deep low crossing the the Bering Sea). There could still be some diurnally driven showers near the mountains, but expect the bulk of the region to be dry.
-SEB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...
A weak, elongated low is moving south of the central and eastern Aleutian Chain this morning, producing areas of light rain and east to northeast small craft winds moving quickly east along the Chain. This low will skirt south of the AKpen later today, allowing quieter conditions and northerly flow to spread into most of the Bering Sea and Aleutians as a strong upper ridge builds into place behind this low. Across Southwest, there will be lingering influence from a decaying low now situated over the Gulf of Alaska as a messy upper trough continues to drift overhead.
By this afternoon, breaks in cloud cover already showing up on satellite this morning should allow for enough heating and low level destabilization for scattered showers to develop across much of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay. The lingering question is whether any of this can become deeply developed enough to produce any lightning, as forecast soundings still show a relatively warm, dry layer in the mid to upper levels that could keep showers rather low-topped today. There will be a couple weak upper perturbations rotating around the Gulf low into Southwest today, and this could be the tipping point providing enough lift to cool the upper levels and assist in allowing for a few thunderstorms developing along the Alaska Range, perhaps drifting out into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley before dissipating with loss of daytime heating later tonight. Additional rounds of showers will be possible on Monday, mainly near the Alaska Range out ahead of a shortwave trough digging south around the developing Bering ridge. However, instability looks even more marginal on Monday, and thunderstorms are unlikely.
Attention from there shifts to a much stronger system poised to affect a large portion of the outlook area later in the week. By Monday, a strong 970s-980s mb low moving off of Kamchatka will extend a warm front into the western Aleutians, with southerly winds picking up into gale force range along and behind the initial front across the western Aleutians and Bering A cold front will move in quickly behind the warm front and begin to occlude it on Tuesday morning, while the parent low moves farther into the far northern Bering Sea. High-end gale force southerly winds will spread east towards the central Aleutians and Pribilofs, while winds remain strong but turn westerly behind the cold front. Bands of light rain following both frontal features should also shift from the western Aleutians to the central Aleutians and past the Pribilofs on Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, the main low and trailing front will begin to weaken as the low center moves up towards St Lawrence Island.
Even so, guidance is beginning to show the wind field holding on for longer, and there is potential for 30 to 40 mph southerly winds to reach the Southwest coast as early as Tuesday afternoon, especially near the Kuskokwim Delta. It is too early at this time to determine exact potential for higher than normal water levels moving in with this system. However, coastal communities across the Kuskokwim Delta should continue to monitor the forecast for updates over the next couple days while we continue to follow this strong spring low pressure system.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...
For Southcentral...
By the long term, south central will be dried out and slowly warming with conditions returning to, or exceeding normal.
Ridging over much of the mainland will persist through the end of the week. Clouds will be intermittent across region but some afternoon showers will develop across the Wrangell mountains.
By the weekend, clouds and rain will return. A low pressure system will drop down from the northern Bering, south across southwest Alaska and into the Kodiak/Western Gulf of Alaska.
Present forecast guidance keeps this system only precipitating on Gulf communities, though there is a chance the system will shift north, bringing wider spreading rains to the mainland.
Overall, temperatures will continue to rise, with daytime highs warming (with no snow).
For Southwest and the Bering/Aleutians...
The first of two systems will move across the Bering Wednesday and Thursday. This system will drag a front across the Aleutian chain, bringing winds, rain and shifty winds will follow as this tracks east. The brunt of the winds, outside of the Bering, will be be focused towards Bethel into Wednesday evening. The next weather system will develop across the western Bering and move along the Aleutian chain. It is still too early to pin down specifics on the movement of this low a week out, but trends are sliding it south of Bristol Bay by the weekend.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light slight southwesterly winds this morning will give way to gusty southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm late this afternoon.
These winds will bend into the terminal with pressure gradients becoming favorable as a low pressure system passes south of Kodiak and re-orients the coastal ridge to the favorable east-to-west direction. Unlike an instability driven Turnagain Arm wind bending over the terminal with day-time heating, this will be mostly pressure gradient driven with southeast winds peaking this evening. Winds turn light and out of the north Monday morning.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| PASY EARECKSON AS,AK | 3 sm | 32 min | no data | 9 sm | -- | Lt Snow | 36°F | 32°F | 87% | 30.23 |
Andersen,AFB/Tiyana,Guam
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