Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 2:21 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 181042 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 642 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A disturbance will cross the region today through tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure will move south across the region Sunday into early next week, then build south of the area through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update...
Have updated to adjust for current conditions.

Previous Discussion...
At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador will ridge across the region today while low pressure tracks south of the Gulf of Maine. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will begin to move east across the region. The disturbance will cross the region tonight, while surface ridging persists.
Isolated/scattered, mostly afternoon, showers will accompany the disturbance across northern areas today through early tonight.
Some uncertainty still exists regarding the interaction between the disturbance and the northern edge of the moisture field from the low tracking south of the Gulf of Maine. Current indications are that the steadiest rains should remain offshore across the Gulf of Maine. However, still expect scattered/numerous showers mostly this afternoon through early tonight across Downeast areas. Showers then decrease regionwide later tonight. High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to around 70 north, to the lower to mid 60s interior Downeast with around 60 along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50 across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Sunday starts out mainly cloudy, with perhaps a few early morning lingering showers Downeast, associated with an ocean low to our south and exiting upper level trof. The trof exits to the east later Sunday morning with upper ridging building by Sunday afternoon. At the surface, high pressure builds westward across the area from Maritimes. We should remain fairly cloudy into the afternoon, as soundings are suggesting some moisture below 5 Kft below a shallow inversion. With this in mind, blended NBM/Consall for afternoon highs on Sunday, which shaved a few degrees off the raw NBM numbers. Thinking is clouds start to break up later Sunday afternoon as the upper ridge builds east.
Sunday night features partly cloudy skies with building upper ridge and surface high across the region. On Monday, weak short wave crossing Quebec province flattens out the upper ridging.
Have maintained slight chance pops, mainly far northern Aroostook county and the St.John Valley. Otherwise, Monday will be a warmer day with highs approaching 80 degrees inland away from the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Upper ridge will continue to extend northeastward across the region through mid week with a warming trend. Northern stream short wave looks to cross the region later Tuesday with the chance for afternoon showers mainly across the north. Otherwise partly to mostly sunny skies expected with afternoon highs in the lower 80s for most areas away from the coast. Expect partly cloudy skies Tuesday night. Wednesday looks like an even warmer day with 925MB temperatures progged to climb to 20C-23C across the region, thus expect the potential for highs in the mid to upper 80s for some inland locales. Appears another short wave will cross the region Wednesday afternoon with the chance for showers. With the warming temperatures and increasing low level moisture have included slight chance thunder as well. Cold front approaches Thursday with chance for more showers and possible thunderstorms. Cooler weather follows the front for the end of the week.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR across northern areas today through early tonight, then MVFR/IFR overnight. Isolated/scattered showers mostly this afternoon through early tonight, with decreasing shower chances overnight. Across Downeast areas, VFR through early afternoon. VFR/MVFR later this afternoon with scattered to numerous showers. MVFR/IFR tonight with scattered to numerous showers early, then decreasing late. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east/southeast today. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Sun...MVFR Downeast early with VFR north. E around 5kts.

Sun night-Tue...Mainly VFR. Chance showers Tuesday North.

Tue night-Wed...VFR/MVFR. Chance showers.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Isolated/scattered showers this morning, then scattered to numerous showers this afternoon through tonight.
Patchy fog early this morning, then again this afternoon into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Immingham
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Sat -- 03:20 AM BST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:20 AM BST     5.59 meters High Tide
Sat -- 04:54 AM BST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM BST     2.89 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 03:21 PM BST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:24 PM BST     5.76 meters High Tide
Sat -- 09:01 PM BST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:59 PM BST     2.14 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Immingham, England, Tide feet

Whitby
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Sat -- 01:19 AM BST     4.33 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:22 AM BST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:51 AM BST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:27 AM BST     2.48 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 01:25 PM BST     4.50 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM BST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:02 PM BST     1.80 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 09:07 PM BST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Whitby, England, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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