Sunrise 5:03 AM   Sunset 10:48 PM Moonrise 1:25 PM   Moonset 3:08 AM

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PKZ758 NElson Lagoon To Cape Sarichef Out To 15 Nm- 401 Am Akdt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory today - .
Today - W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.Tonight - W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.Fri - S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.Fri night - S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Sat - W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sun through Mon - S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 161244 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 444 AM AKDT Thu May 16 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A pattern shift is ongoing over Southcentral as the high amplitude ridge over the Copper River Basin slowly retreats to the east and a deep longwave trough over the Eastern Bering Sea and Western Alaska slowly pushes to the east over the next several days.
Clouds cooler temperatures and increased chances for rain will replace the warm and drier weather of the last couple days.

A front wrapping around a weak low pressure system pushing north and east into the western Gulf of Alaska this morning and over Kodiak Island this evening will bring an increase in clouds, periods of light light rain into Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula this morning. The ridge over the Copper River Basin will continue to slowly move to the east and as the low over the Gulf of Alaska slows and weakens over the Northern Gulf of Alaska today with precipitation holding off until this afternoon for the Anchorage Bowl and MatSu areas. Cloud cover over the area will shave a few degrees off of the high temperatures that we have seen the last couple of days with the exception of the Copper River Basin where clouds will hold off until this evening. Winds will generally be light except for typical southerly gap wind locations

-CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The front associated with the weakening Kamchatka low continues to drift eastward, producing rain and snow for much of Southwest.
This trend will continue through Friday afternoon before the system dissipates. Additionally, a shortwave low is quickly passing through the western and central Aleutians this morning, providing a quick spurt of precipitation before it exits into the North Pacific.

The next focus of attention will be the formation of an upper level trough in the northern Bering starting Friday morning. The trough will begin to swing southwards towards the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula throughout the day Friday into Saturday morning. Most of the eastern Bering will see precipitation Friday afternoon through at least Saturday evening.
Some locations near the coastline across Southwest could also see precipitation as the system treks southward. Colder air from the Arctic will also be dragged down with this system, increasing the potential for snow to occur at least in the morning hours of Friday and Saturday. As the trough tilts near the AKPEN on Saturday, increased southeasterly flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient will support increased winds across the region, as well as stronger gap winds in areas like Kamishak gap. Models are still struggling with the progression of the system, especially as the trough tilts negatively over the AKPEN sometime on Saturday. With that said, model guidance does agree broadly on the trend of how this system will develop through the forecast period.

Lastly, a new shortwave trough will begin to impact the western Aleutians and Bering starting Saturday afternoon. Small craft force winds gusts are possible, and widespread precipitation mainly in the form of rain is currently expected as the shortwave moves eastward.

-BS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday)...

The long-term period begins with an upper-level trough situated over the Eastern Bering Sea and weak ridging over Southcentral and the Central/Western Aleutians. This upper-level pattern will be represented at the surface by a surface low in the Eastern Bering pushing a broad frontal boundary into Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. At this time, Southcentral will likely be under the influence of the ridge, this may manifest as more clear skies, however the chance for a mid-level stratus deck is possible. By Sunday morning however, the low is expected to track across the AKPen, entering the Western Gulf of Alaska, spreading a potentially heavy, but relatively brief, shot of rainfall across coastal locations of Prince William Sound as well as Kodiak Island. Model agreement up to this point in time is fair with some slight variations, but the overall themes and timing represented well throughout. By Sunday afternoon however model solutions diverge sharply, with some solutions lingering the low across the northern Gulf, and others more transient, shifting the low off to the eastern Gulf by late Sunday. Additionally, Sunday afternoon in the Bering has very little agreement with regards to timing, features, and persistence. Generally, a trough will build over the Bering into the early portion of next week, however at this time little more details on impacts at the surface, and overall timing/progression of this system are discernible.

-CL

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.
Turnagain Arm winds increase this afternoon and are expected to bend into the airport. Sustained southeasterly winds around 15 knots with gusts as high as 22 knots should persist into the evening hours and possibly through the early morning hours on Friday before the pressure gradient across the region relaxes.

Cape Mordvinof
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Thu -- 03:12 AM AKDT     6.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:08 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:47 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM AKDT     2.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM AKDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:24 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:17 PM AKDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Mordvinof, Unimak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Sarichef
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:22 AM AKDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:09 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM AKDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM AKDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:27 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:02 PM AKDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Sarichef, Unimak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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