Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ketchikan, AK

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Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:54PM Monday August 20, 2018 2:05 AM PDT (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:54PMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 317 Pm Akdt Sun Aug 19 2018
Tonight..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketchikan, AK
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location: 55.22, -132.1     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 192250
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
250 pm akdt Sun aug 19 2018

Short term Our ridge of high pressure over the eastern gulf
continues to provide us with pleasant weather today. Sky
conditions are currently mostly clear throughout all of SE alaska,
and with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and relatively
light winds, outdoor activities are highly encouraged today.

By Monday, this pattern is expected to change for some locations.

The deep upper level trough over the western gulf will begin to
lift northeast, shifting the right jet region to be over the ne
gulf coast, namely yakutat. This will aim the advected moisture
directly over the yakutat area. We'll see rain chances
subsequently increase here. However, despite the ridge weakening
as the low lifts, it will be slow to push out, leaving an
opportunity for most of the panhandle to have another pleasant day
in store for tomorrow. Based on 850 mb temperature analysis, it
may even be a warmer day for some areas down south, with
temperatures hovering around the 80 degree mark in places like
ketchikan, hyder, and annette. Models do show the marine layer
moving into areas like gustavus and elfin cove by tomorrow
morning. Current satellite imagery shows the marine layer just
offshore this afternoon, but forecast soundings show wind veering
to be out of the west-southwest by early tomorrow morning,
increasing onshore flow in these areas.

As the low continues to weaken and lift northeast on Tuesday,
higher rain chances will pivot to northern areas in the
panhandle. Precipitation amounts do not appear to be as
substantive as the previous day's amounts over the NE gulf coast.

An associated weather front will also move east through the
eastern gulf then quickly weaken. This will act to increase winds,
albeit briefly, along the inner channels and increase the cloud
cover for most locations. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday
due to this increased cloud cover, precipitation, and onshore
flow.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday ... A sharply defined,
negatively tilted upper level trough will be situated over the
western gulf at the start of this long range forecast period. The
trough will rotate north and the trough axis will pass over
southeast alaska by Tuesday afternoon. Very strong upper level jet
support and vigorous mid level vorticity will strengthen a weather
front that is forecast to bring heavy rain to the northeast gulf
coast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Current 24 hour rainfall
total for the northeast gulf coast ranges from 1.65 inches in the
yakutat area to as much as 3 inches west of icy bay. Rain will
spread south and east through the day and night Tuesday, but the front
will weaken rapidly as the parent low weakens over south central
alaska and the front loses favorable jet support. As the low
weakens and fills and the front moves out of the areas, high
pressure will build in over the gulf from the south on Wednesday.

Models are indicating that a short wave trough will ride up over the
top of the ridge on Thursday evening, mode agreements on this feature
is currently very poor with GFS being by far the most aggressive
in terms of pop. For now, have left the forecast for the latter
half of the upcoming week as a very broad brushed high end chance
to low end likely for the probability of rain.

The low associated with the front on Tuesday will be weakening as
it approaches from the southwest. Thus, have only small craft
winds associated with the front over the gulf. Residual ridging
over the panhandle should result in very little wind on the
inside at first. Gradient pinching as the filling low tracks
inland and off to the east will result in a stronger southerly
pressure gradient over the far northern inner channels. Small
craft winds are anticipated over lynn canal Tuesday night through
Wednesday afternoon.

Daytime highs for the week are looking to be seasonable, ranging
from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight lows will trend a few
degrees warmer than normal for late august owing to the expected
cloudiness associated with first the front and then the short wave.

Used a blend of GFS and ECMWF for updates to pressure through
Tuesday night with GFS as the foundation for wind speeds. Pop and
qpf from GFS for the same timeframe. Temperatures adjusted using
gfs and ensemble mos. Overall forecast confidence is average.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz022-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041>043-051-053.

Jjv fritsch
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KEXA2 24 mi23 min NW 12 G 21 63°F 1025.2 hPa48°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 26 mi35 min NNE 5.1 G 7 65°F 58°F1025.3 hPa
SLXA2 26 mi22 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 1025.6 hPa48°F
MRYA2 49 mi23 min NNW 4.1 G 8
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 61 mi65 min NW 18 G 19 56°F 55°F6 ft1026 hPa (+0.3)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 66 mi55 min WNW 12 G 13 58°F 1025.4 hPa53°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK23 mi73 minN 9 G 1810.00 miFair66°F48°F54%1026 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE4SE4SE3SE3S3CalmCalmSE6E5E3NW4N8N8N10NW11NW9NW9NW7NW7NW6NW7NW7NW7NW7
2 days agoS6SE7S9SE10SE11SE5S6SE10SE11SE6SE9SE11SE9SE7SE9SE8SE9SE6SE5S4SE6SE6SE5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska
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Lancaster Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:13 AM AKDT     2.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:32 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:46 AM AKDT     10.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:11 PM AKDT     5.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:53 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:28 PM AKDT     12.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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74.83.22.52.83.95.57.49.110.110.49.88.57.15.95.35.66.68.310.111.712.612.611.5

Tide / Current Tables for Niblack Anchorage, Moira Sound, Alaska
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Niblack Anchorage
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:17 AM AKDT     2.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:32 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:46 AM AKDT     9.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:15 PM AKDT     5.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:09 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:28 PM AKDT     12.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.94.83.22.52.73.75.378.69.69.99.38.26.95.85.35.56.589.811.212.112.111.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.