Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ketchikan, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 5:47PM Sunday February 17, 2019 8:09 PM PST (04:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 7:17AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 307 Pm Akst Sun Feb 17 2019
Tonight..N wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming light, then becoming se 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
Tue..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Tue night..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances.
Wed..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketchikan, AK
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location: 55.22, -132.1     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 180009
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
309 pm akst Sun feb 17 2019

Short term The current satellite imagery show a broad area of
clouds over the gulf of alaska which are moving over the forecast
area as the upper level ridge that has provided some nice sunny
days drifts east. There will be 2 impactful weather fronts to
move over the forecast area the next few days. The first one will
be tonight, which will be quick and weakening as it moves over
the area. The second will move over the panhandle through Monday
night and will be much stronger with more moisture available along
with better mid level dynamics for lift. There were not many changes
to any winter weather product with the exception to lowering some
snow amounts in places. Overall there is about average forecaster
confidence.

There is a surface front under the cloud cover and is affecting
the yakutat area this afternoon with some light snowfall and or
mist due to some drying in the mid levels. The profile will
moisten through this evening and moderate snow will begin to fall
with about 4 to 5 inches by the early morning. There maybe some
a break in the precipitation in the late morning but as the next
front moves over the northern gulf the yakutat area will see snow
and rain. Amounts will be tricky as there is CAA but with being
so close to the ocean they may remain a mix.

For the rest of the area, the first front will bring some snow to
the coastal and north central inner channels with about 3 to 5
inches by mid Monday morning. There is some concern that snow
ratio values will lower due to mid level warning and not produce good
snow development. There will be some minor snow accumulations
over the the rest of the northern half. The snowfall rates will
relax during the day on Monday as the first front exits the area
but that will not last long with snow rates increasing in the late
afternoon into the evening hours. There were some minor
adjustment done to snow amounts but over all snow amounts may
range from 4 to 8 Monday night. More winter weather products will
be needed for the south central areas as there is indication that
may be advisory snow amounts.

Wind wise... The first front is producing gale force winds over the
northern gulf with small crafts developing over the eastern gulf
tonight. There is not much wind over the inner channels now but as
the first front moves over the area it will sharpen up the
surface ridge and increase the south winds to range from 15 to 30
kt. The winds will relax between the systems but then increase
again to those levels Monday night. As the low drifts southeast
through Wednesday the northerly outflow winds will increase along
with a drying conditions.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 pm Saturday
longwave pattern will generally keep ridging over the nepac with
troffing over the n-central pac and the bering sea. However, there
will be several shortwaves, some on the strong side, that will
flatten the ridge as they move through during the week into next
weekend. Model differences with the shortwaves have increased in
the past 24 hrs worth of model runs, so decided to make little
change to most forecast parameters.

A stronger shortwave and occluded front will be over the inner
channels early Tue morning, and heading se. System will bring in
some warmer air, so the rain snow line appears to move inland some.

Still some differences in how much lower level cold air hangs on
over the more eastern and northern areas, so limited any
transition to a mix for most of those spots during tue. Some of
the 00z models are a little cooler around the juneau area tue
(based on 1000-850 thickness) than previous runs, so later shifts
may need to lower temps a bit (and possibly maintain snow longer).

After that, still looks like a break in the precip starting tue
night and continuing into wed. Models have increased their spread
on system moving in for late week, and there has been little run
to run consistency either. So, sticking with current forecast
seemed to be the best idea for late week. The differences only get
larger over the weekend, ranging from a cold dry scenario in the
latest GFS to a warmer and wetter scenario in the canadian model.

Overall, forecast confidence is average through midweek, then
below average for late week into the weekend.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter storm warning from midnight tonight to 9 am akst Tuesday
for akz025.

Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am akst
Monday for akz020-022.

Winter weather advisory until 5 am akst Monday for akz017.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-022-042-043.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041-053.

Abj rwt
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GIXA2 19 mi28 min NE 1 G 4.1 34°F 1029.4 hPa16°F
KEXA2 24 mi28 min NW 7 G 11 30°F 1031.3 hPa12°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 26 mi40 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 32°F 43°F1031.7 hPa
SLXA2 26 mi27 min NE 2.9 G 6 29°F 1032 hPa14°F
MRYA2 49 mi28 min NW 2.9 G 8.9 34°F 18°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 61 mi70 min W 7.8 G 9.7 35°F 43°F3 ft1032.5 hPa (+0.2)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 66 mi60 min NW 7 G 8 32°F 1030.9 hPa13°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK23 mi17 minWNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds29°F17°F61%1031.9 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N13N9NW6NW64W4W5W7NW5NW6NW4NW6N7NW9NW12NW10NW11NW10NW10NW7NW7NW7W4
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmW3W4W3W4NW6NW7W7
G16
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2 days agoN4NW4N6NW4NW7NW6NW6NW6NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE3SE4SE3NW4NW4CalmCalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska
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Lancaster Cove
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Sun -- 04:29 AM AKST     3.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:16 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:06 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:41 AM AKST     16.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:25 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:58 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:16 PM AKST     -2.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:44 PM AKST     14.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.510.57.85.33.83.85.48.111.314.216.116.514.911.77.32.9-0.6-2.3-1.80.64.38.512.114.3

Tide / Current Tables for Niblack Anchorage, Moira Sound, Alaska
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Niblack Anchorage
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Sun -- 04:33 AM AKST     3.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:15 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:06 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:41 AM AKST     16.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:26 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:59 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:20 PM AKST     -2.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:44 PM AKST     14.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.110.27.65.33.93.85.27.810.913.815.61614.511.47.22.9-0.5-2.2-1.90.44811.613.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.