Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ketchikan, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 4:32PM Friday November 16, 2018 2:18 PM PST (22:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 12:04AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 644 Am Akst Fri Nov 16 2018
Today..N wind 10 kt becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Sun..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketchikan, AK
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location: 55.22, -132.1     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 161238
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
338 am akst Fri nov 16 2018

Short term Main forecast concerns in the short term revolve
around fog and low clouds this morning and then significant
snowfall likely for the klondike and haines roads tonight and
Saturday.

Upper ridge in place over the panhandle this morning. Subsidence
under the ridge, combined with lingering low level moisture and
light winds has led to fog and low clouds hanging around much of
the interior and southern panhandle this morning. Visibilities
have been quarter mile or below around the juneau area so went
with a dense fog advisory through mid morning. Fog may be slow to
burn off but do expect generally improving conditions by
afternoon.

Surface low over the npac will lift into the western gulf this
evening. Warm front will advance into the northern gulf this
evening and push across the northern panhandle by morning. Some
cooler air will be in place across the far northern channels ahead
of the warm front. Precipitation falling into the cooler, drier
sub-cloud layer will initially serve to reinforce the cool air
along the chilkat valley. Thus, although the mid level flow is
sw'ly, which usually rain shadows the chilkat valley, think low
level over-running will be enough for a few inches of wet snow
through Saturday morning especially near the canadian border.

With nothing to hold the cold air in place and the strong low
level warm advection, think it will warm up enough for rain or
rain snow mix by Saturday afternoon.

The klondike highway will be a different story. Strong ssw'ly
moisture transport will commence during the day Saturday. Forecast
soundings show deep lift with strong ssw flow providing orographic
enhancement of precipitation near pass level. Snow levels will
rise to near 2500ft by Saturday afternoon but a deep isothermal
near freezing layer looks to exist near white pass which will lead
to increased aggregation and a heavy, wet snow. Based on the
above factors, decided to issue a winter storm warning for the
klondike highway and a winter weather advisory for the haines road
through Saturday.

Elsewhere, expect a heavy rainfall event to unfold, first over the
ne gulf coast and then spreading southward through the day on
Saturday. Ivt ensemble probability plots show high likelihood of
atmospheric river conditions Saturday so expect total rainfall
amounts to range from 3 to 5 inches near yakutat to 1 to 2 inches
across the remainder of the northern and central panhandle.

Smaller streams may see some rapid rises, but at this time no
flooding is expected.

Long term Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday
did not make much change to the longer range. Models still having
timing issues with system coming into the area sun. Mainly looks
like an upper level amplitude issue for the Sun system, with
latest GFS canadian suggesting a more amplified pattern and
slower moving system than the ECMWF and nam. Current forecast is
in range of those ideas, so did not want to chase timing right
now.

Further out, model differences increase, mainly due to amplitude
of upper level pattern and how energy within an upper trof to the
w distributes itself. This will affect both the timing and
strength of any lows associated with the systems further out.

Overall pattern still favors warm and wet, so little threat for
any snow at lower levels during the long term period.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Dense fog advisory from 3 am to 10 am akst Saturday for akz025.

Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am akst
Saturday for akz019.

Winter storm warning from 9 pm this evening to 3 pm akst
Saturday for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz042-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-022-041.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz053.

Del jb
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GIXA2 19 mi66 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 1026.2 hPa37°F
KEXA2 24 mi26 min WNW 4.1 G 8 45°F 1027.6 hPa38°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 26 mi30 min ESE 1 G 2.9 43°F 47°F1027.9 hPa
SLXA2 26 mi25 min WSW 5.1 G 7 44°F 1028.2 hPa37°F
MRYA2 49 mi26 min NNW 11 G 15
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 61 mi78 min E 16 G 18 46°F 49°F3 ft1027.4 hPa (+0.2)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 66 mi68 min E 7 G 8.9 42°F 1026.6 hPa38°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK23 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair44°F39°F83%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7CalmNW4N5W3S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalm
1 day agoE8SE7SE6SE10SE8SE6SE4SE6----S5S5SE7SE5S3CalmCalmNW4NW4NW7NW9N11N9NW6
2 days agoSE7SE6SE12
G21
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Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska
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Lancaster Cove
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:37 AM AKST     3.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:23 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM AKST     11.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:30 PM AKST     6.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:59 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:41 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:18 PM AKST     11.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.83.74.45.87.69.410.911.811.911.19.88.36.96.26.26.98.19.410.611.21110.18.56.7

Tide / Current Tables for Niblack Anchorage, Moira Sound, Alaska
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Niblack Anchorage
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:41 AM AKST     3.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:23 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM AKST     11.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:34 PM AKST     6.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:58 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:42 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:18 PM AKST     10.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.83.64.35.67.3910.511.311.410.79.58.16.96.26.16.77.89.110.110.710.59.78.26.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.