Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Metlakatla, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:50AMSunset 4:12PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 7:43 PM PST (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:28PMMoonset 3:39AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 339 Pm Akst Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Tonight..S wind 30 kt diminishing late. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Wed..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
Wed night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the evening.
Thu..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near ocean entrances.
Thu night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metlakatla, AK
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location: 55.23, -131.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 190001
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
301 pm akst Tue dec 18 2018

Short term Tuesday afternoon to Thursday night vertically
stacked low along the west coast of southeast alaska is slowly
drifting northward through Tuesday afternoon and evening that will
move across the northern panhandle to northwest canada. There is
a mass of cold air that is rushing into the western gulf from the
western interior of the state and bering sea. The cold air is
evident on satellite imagery by the cloud streets forming over
the western gulf in the flow. The cold air is pressing up along
the western side of the dying occluded front on the west side of
the vertically stacked low. When the cold air starts to move
inland Wednesday morning, expect the temperatures to slow fall
into Friday for southeast alaska.

Rain and snow showers over the panhandle will continue through
this evening and tonight, becoming more showery as an upper
through will be lifting through the panhandle this evening. A mid
level impulse will be moving from the bering sea into the gulf
and will spin up another small but locally strong low late
Wednesday night for the northeast gulf. Think a weak low will
continue continue in the northern gulf to early Friday, as
another moderately strong low starts to move to the western gulf
of alaska. Showers should be less later Thursday into Thursday
night, with more of the panhandle seeing them as snow rather than
rain.

Locally gusty winds beginning to diminish Tuesday evening,
although expect that there will be a brief bump of higher winds
due to pressure rises this evening. The lynn canal area and around
skagway may see gusts to 40 mph tonight, and then they will relax
as the pressure gradient slackens.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm
Monday... A low will be sitting over northern gulf between cape
suckling and yakutat at the start of this extended range forecast
period. There is a still some model disagreement regarding the
exact placement and whether it will split into two lows before it
slips south into the central gulf and fills Friday. Another low
will approaching the south-central gulf, with an inverted trof
extending up to the northwestern gulf by Saturday. As this system
continues to move northeast, the main low will move to the
central gulf while the triple point low asserts itself and starts
pulling the front apart that the two lows have in common. The
inverted trof stays anchored, extending up and across the kenai
peninsula through Sunday. By Monday a sharply defined ridge will
move in over the gulf from the west and push the two lows with
the occluded front into the outer coastal areas between sitka down
to southern haida gwaii. The lows will weaken and fill and the
front will weaken to a trof by Tuesday.

Over all the ensemble models are still the most consistent, with
too many run to run changes with the operational models in the
long term. The big picture is there is a low, then ridging
followed by another low. The finer details regarding the exact
timing and strength is still very much uncertain at this time.

The GFS is showing promise, along with the ECMWF continuing to be
trusted. Nudged the forecast with some GFS and ECMWF in the mid
range - Thursday and Friday. Blending in more wpc further out in
the future.

Temperatures are still looking to be on track to be near or below
freezing over the northern panhandle over the weekend, with the
south ranging in the low 30s to the upper 30s. Precipitation, if
it falls at all, will be light, mainly snow in the north and a
mix to all rain in the south.

Forecast confidence continues to be average.

Aviation Southern half of the panhandle will still have some
low level wind shear near airport as the low level gusty wind
begin to weaken aloft. Ceilings otherwise look to be 1500 to 4000
over the panhandle, though typically lowering some overnight so
marginal flight conditions will be found at most southeast alaska
airports.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 3 pm akst this afternoon for akz023-026>028.

Strong wind from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz022-031-034-042-043-051.

Small craft advisory for pkz011>013-021-032-033-035-036-041-052-
053.

Bezenek kv
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRYA2 9 mi31 min SSE 2.9 G 13
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 27 mi43 min SE 19 G 30 44°F 45°F990.6 hPa (+2.6)
SLXA2 28 mi30 min E 22 G 39 41°F 990.1 hPa39°F
KEXA2 31 mi31 min ESE 27 G 45 41°F 990.1 hPa39°F
GIXA2 43 mi31 min SE 7 G 25 45°F 987.1 hPa39°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 91 mi43 min WSW 25 G 31 44°F 47°F8 ft993.4 hPa (+5.8)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK16 mi47 minSSW 11 G 2110.00 miLight Rain44°F41°F89%990.5 hPa

Wind History from AMM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE14
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1 day agoSE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Alava Bay, Alaska
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Alava Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:25 AM AKST     4.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:39 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:54 AM AKST     14.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:28 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:15 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 03:28 PM AKST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:37 PM AKST     12.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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75.34.34.45.67.710.212.41414.513.711.89.16.13.72.42.43.868.510.712.112.211.2

Tide / Current Tables for Mary Island Anchorage, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Mary Island Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM AKST     4.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:39 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:06 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:59 AM AKST     14.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:28 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 03:24 PM AKST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:42 PM AKST     12.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.15.34.34.55.77.810.212.514.114.71412.19.26.23.72.32.53.96.18.610.812.212.411.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.