Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Metlakatla, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:12AMSunset 4:27PM Sunday November 19, 2017 1:41 PM PST (21:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:20AMMoonset 5:52PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 658 Am Akst Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft advisory late tonight...
Today..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tonight..NW wind 10 kt becoming se and increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Mon night..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tue..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metlakatla, AK
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location: 55.23, -131.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 191445
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
545 am akst Sun nov 19 2017

Short term through Monday night ... Significant shift in the
nam with the 06z model puts that model in very close alignment
with the GFS and the canadian nh with respect to a front that
will affect southeast alaska on Monday. Changes made overnight
based on increased confidence in the agreement of these models,
but the 19 00z ECMWF remains an outlier. As it is, the front is
now depicted as making further progress to the north and with a
notable increase in qpf. Low level warm air advection from the
south is also evident, but this front looks like it will be a snow
event for panhandle locations between CAPE fairweather and sumner
strait, minus the central outer coast. At present, 24-hour snow
totals MAX out along the icy strait corridor at 3 to 4 inches,
which would be less than advisory levels.

Gale force winds associated with the front are expected over the
central gulf by this evening, progressing eastward through the
night with small craft winds down to the dixon entrance by early
Monday morning. Strong northeast pressure gradient that has been
the norm for several weeks now continues. As the front draws
near, winds on the inside will once again increase with gales
expected over the inner channels from stephens passage north by
late tonight. Strong winds in skagway not panning out as
originally forecast, so the strong wind headline was dropped for
that zone. Still, northerly gusts around 30 mph are expected both
in town and along the klondike highway. Mountain wave model
guidance for the downtown juneau area not indicating very good
potential for a true taku wind, but cross barrier flow increases
tonight, so gusts to 30 mph are possible tonight and tomorrow.

Clearing skies overnight allowed temperatures to fall abruptly in
some spots. Yakutat, the mendenhall valley, and gustavus all got
down to 5-7 degrees by very early Sunday morning. Increasing cloud
cover associated with the front should prevent another single-
digit night Sunday night. High today should range from the low 20s
in the north to the mid upper 30s for the southern zones.

Used a GFS nam blend for updates to pressure and wind tonight. Pop
and QPF from sref, nam, and gfs. Overall short range forecast
confidence is average, trending above average.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday models have a reasonable
agreement Tuesday in regards to a low that drops down from the
western gulf into the north pacific. It will not be the last time
se alaska will see this low pressure, as it does a sweeping
concave turn towards haida gwaii. This is about the time that the
models start to diverge in their solutions. The GFS is the most
aggressive bringing a closed low to near haida gwaii, while the
nam has the slowest approach with the ec taking the middle road.

By thanksgiving the GFS has brought the low to near yakutat,
while the ECMWF solutions dawdles in the southeast gulf and
eventually fills the low. The ECMWF has also become the rogue
model solution with major solutions between the last two runs,
this leaves the GFS a reasonable model to do blending to as
needed. Overall using an ensemble approach will be the most
prudent solution for the later part of the upcoming week. Used wpc
to extend out through Sunday, with a small nudge using the gfs.

A slow trend to warmer weather by mid week for the southern
panhandle and then spreading into the central panhandle as far
north of juneau over the weekend. Areas in the south and along
the outer coastal waters from sitka south with be predominately
rain, while a mix of precipitation will be the norm for the
central areas. By Saturday the warmer air should reach yakutat and
haines areas making for a mix of rain and snow during the warmer
part of the day. Snow will continue in the skagway.

Strong outflows will be diminishing as the southerly winds advance
northward, lynn canal area and northern areas of glacier bay will
be the hold outs with northerly winds persisting but diminishing
into the weekend.

Forecast confidence in the mid range Tuesday-Wednesday is
average and then slips lower. With the meager model agreement and
model run disparities with the ecmwf, confidence remains low for
the details late week and into the weekend.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-013-021-022-031-034-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-032-033-035-036-041-042-053.

Fritsch jbyrd kv
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 27 mi41 min NW 12 G 16 38°F 45°F997.4 hPa
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 91 mi41 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 41°F 46°F6 ft997.1 hPa (-0.2)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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G28
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK16 mi1.8 hrsN 310.00 miOvercast38°F33°F83%997 hPa

Wind History from AMM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6NE3--NE7E5N3N6N5--CalmCalmCalm----NW10NW10NW10N7N4CalmSE3N5--N3
1 day agoSE11
G21
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G29
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G25
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S5S7S6S8S10
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--S6S6S7S4--S4SW8S4----SE4
2 days agoN8NW10NW9NW10NW10--N9CalmE3--SE3E4E4E7E8--E9--E8
G14
6SE8SE7SE9
G27
SE12
G21

Tide / Current Tables for Alava Bay, Alaska
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Alava Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM AKST     14.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM AKST     2.75 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:26 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:19 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:40 PM AKST     16.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:33 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:52 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:08 PM AKST     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1414.913.911.48.15.13.12.94.57.410.914.116.216.514.911.77.53.40.3-1-0.22.25.79.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mary Island Anchorage, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Mary Island Anchorage
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:01 AM AKST     15.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:32 AM AKST     2.87 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:18 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:42 PM AKST     16.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:34 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:53 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:04 PM AKST     -1.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
14.215.214.211.78.35.13.23.14.87.811.314.416.516.915.311.97.63.30.2-1-0.22.35.99.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.