Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kasaan, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 7:24PM Monday September 25, 2017 5:22 PM PDT (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 12:43PMMoonset 9:27PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 316 Pm Akdt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory late tonight through Tuesday...
Tonight..Light winds becoming se 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less building to 5 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Tue night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kasaan, AK
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location: 55.25, -132.3     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 252305
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
305 pm akdt Mon sep 25 2017

Short term Tonight through Wednesday... As of 1500 this
afternoon, a ridge of high pressure has positioned itself over the
eastern gulf and the SE alaska panhandle. A broad trough
currently answers the ridge from the western gulf and alaska
mainland. This ridge helped with clearing things out for us this
morning in most areas, but it has begin to shift east today and is
now beginning to bring onshore flow back to the panhandle.

Another shortwave developing out of the parent circulation to the
west is expected to lift northeast across the gulf waters tonight.

Its associated weather front will also push northeast and begin
to impact the panhandle late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

In addition, on WV satellite imagery, we can see a very moist
subtropical jet wrapping around the main flow between the trough
and the ridge, and current precipitable water analysis shows
anomalously high pw amounts with this flow. We'll see additional
shortwaves develop out of the parent trough that will pivot this
flow of moisture over the panhandle, with southern areas being the
target tomorrow before the flow shifts to northern areas
Wednesday. This is setting up to be a substantially wet pattern
through the week.

The big story with the approaching front for tonight into
tomorrow will be the increased winds, especially along the eastern
gulf waters, and the increased pops across the panhandle. Some
areas in the inner channels may receive 25 kt sustained winds
tomorrow into Wednesday, namely areas of clarence strait,
southern chatham, and southern portions of stephens passage.

Generally, the ECMWF and GFS have had good agreement, so most
adjustments to the forecast were made using a combination of both
models. Wind speeds along the front were adjusted up using the
gfs, and pops were updated using predominantly the ec, with a
little GFS added in.

Long term Wed night through Mon still some important model
differences to work out for mid-late week system but threat for
heavy rain somewhere in the area remains on the high side. Precip
water values are running 2.5-3 standard deviations above average
in the GFS ec ensemble guidance for wed-thu. Jet axis aloft will
run N into the NE gulf coast area with speeds in the 100-110 kt
range. At this point, main forecast difficulty is where axis of
heaviest rain sets up, and this is mainly due to models handling
low pressure waves on the front differently. Ended up not making
any big changes to the forecast for Wed night-thu but did bump
winds up some over the area based on model trends.

Later in the period, looking like main cold front will cross the
area late Thu or Thu night. Did speed up transition over to
showers behind this front for Thu night and fri. Weekend looking
on the wet and cooler side with remnant of parent low moving e
across the gulf. Will need to watch for any potential systems
coming out of the southern stream into the area by late in the
weekend or early next week, but there are large model differences
on this.

Aviation Yakutat ASOS dissemination problems persist.

Alternative dial up methods attempted today with mixed results.

Taf may have to be niled when webcams lose effectiveness after
dark. Elsewhere frontal system lifting into southern panhandle
tonight will result in wind shear below 2k feet starting around
midnight. Increased inner channels winds will make for choppy
seaplane bases as well. Freezing levels will be on the rise.

Cigs vis will be lowest southern 1 3 area tue... ESP papg and
points S and W from there.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz022-036-041>043-051-052.

Voveris rwt
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 36 mi58 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 53°F1014.3 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 60 mi72 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 1012.6 hPa53°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 61 mi82 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 54°F 56°F4 ft1013.9 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hydaburg - Hydaburg Seaplane Base, AK27 mi26 minSW 510.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from AHY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmN3Calm--N5N7N6N5N5NW7N5N3N4NW5N4CalmNW4NW3CalmNW3W4CalmSW5
1 day agoSE11----SE16SE13S11SE9S8CalmSE8SE9SE12SE11SE13SE12SE10SE9--SE15SE9SE11SE9SE6SE5
2 days agoS5S5SE3SE5S6SE8SE7SE8SE6SE9SE3SE8S11SE8SE14
G22
SE17--SE14SE13SE15SE12SE15SE14SE11

Tide / Current Tables for Divide Head, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska
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Divide Head
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:23 AM AKDT     13.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:10 AM AKDT     3.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:43 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:17 PM AKDT     14.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:47 PM AKDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.46.39.211.612.912.711.38.96.34.23.33.85.5810.712.91413.7129.46.43.82.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska
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Lancaster Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:37 AM AKDT     12.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:22 AM AKDT     3.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:42 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:33 PM AKDT     13.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:57 PM AKDT     1.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
35.78.611.112.612.811.69.46.84.53.33.557.410.112.413.713.812.510.17.14.32.31.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.