Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saxman, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:49AMSunset 4:11PM Sunday December 16, 2018 6:18 PM PST (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:55PMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 327 Pm Akst Sun Dec 16 2018
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Tonight..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
Mon night..SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt late. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
Tue..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
Tue night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK
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location: 55.33, -131.63     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 162347
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
247 pm akst Sun dec 16 2018

Short term through Tuesday night the large system that
brought the wind to many areas of the panhandle last night has
generally weakened and started moving north. We are left with
several weaker short waves embedded in the shower activity that
is moving through the panhandle right now. Winds are generally
lower then last night with many inside channels still showing 20
to 30 kt winds and the buoys along the outer coast showing gales.

There have also been gusts to 40 mph in the southern panhandle
and outer coast as these short waves move through, but they have
been few and far between. These winds will gradually weaken
through the evening and overnight as what is left of the system
moves north and continues to weaken.

Meanwhile periods of rain have been occurring across much of the
area with only a few places cold enough for snow (klondike
highway, and the haines road). The winter weather advisory for
hyder and the winter storm warning for the klondike highway were
cancelled earlier today as the strong easterly flow caused
downslope drying in those areas, significantly limiting snow
totals (white pass only got 2 inches overnight, and hyder only got
1 inch). Meanwhile the warning for the haines road continues
until 4 pm this evening as overrunning of the cold air in the
chilkat valley produces heavy snow (snow totals ranged from around
6 inches at haines to 17 inches at haines customs this morning).

After that point, any remaining snow will diminish in intensity
through the night. Light accumulation expected through mon
afternoon.

As the showers diminish focus then shifts to the next strong low
that will be impacting the area. This time it is a 970 mb low that
will be riding north just off the outer coast Mon night into tue.

The track of the storm has shifted nearer to the outer coast then
the previous forecast had following the good clustering of the
gfs, ecmwf, and canadian solutions (nam was way too far inland
and was discarded as an outlier). The major change this brings is
more wind for the southern inner channels Mon night into tue.

Gales now stream into clarence strait with gusts to 40 or 50 mph
for prince of wales island and the land areas around clarence
strait. Forecast confidence is average as there is still some
shifting of track and strength between model runs going on but the
differences have been on the order of 10s of miles and around 5
mb.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday night as of 10 pm
Saturday extended range forecast begins with a large, slightly
negatively tilted upper trough situated over the western gulf that
will shift east while digging south into the northern pacific.

The trough will sharpen up as it shifts east over the panhandle by
Thursday morning, being caught between a retreating upper ridge
to the east over western canada and another that will enter the
central gulf from the west by that time. The western upper ridge
will remain progressive and a series of upper troughs and ridges
will progress from west to east over southeast alaska over the
coming week with the core of the jet stream remaining south of the
gulf of alaska.

At the surface, a low is forecast to be located over the
southeastern gulf at the start of the long range forecast period.

Model agreement of location of this feature at the start of the
long range forecast, it's track, and intensity is well below
average. Have kept the previous forecast in place for the duration
of this system's presence in the forecast area. And that forecast
maintains the low well off the coast and features southeasterly
small craft winds that spread up the coastal marine zones through
Tuesday night.

Extended range forecast continues to feature a high probability of
precipitation through Thursday afternoon. Northern locations may
see snow early Tuesday as the front arrives, but precip is
expected to transition to all rain during the day Tuesday.

Temperatures remain borderline for rain snow through Wednesday
night. However, model spectrum spread indicating a very definite
cooling will occur heading into the weekend. Adjusted temperatures
down accordingly. Likewise snow levels. At present, probability
of precipitation GOES down as well late in the week, so while more
southerly locations may see snow, amounts are not expected to be
overly impressive.

Overall forecast confidence is average.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 9 pm akst this evening for akz027.

Strong wind until 9 pm akst this evening for akz022-023.

Winter storm warning until 4 pm akst this afternoon for akz019.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz022-041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-013-021-031>036-053.

Eal fritsch
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 0 mi31 min ESE 13 G 22 44°F 44°F989.8 hPa
SLXA2 1 mi26 min E 25 G 36 40°F 989.6 hPa38°F
KEXA2 3 mi27 min E 21 G 43 42°F 989.1 hPa37°F
GIXA2 16 mi27 min SE 22 G 29 44°F 987 hPa38°F
MRYA2 29 mi27 min SE 16 G 26
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 75 mi69 min ESE 18 G 30 43°F 985.9 hPa40°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 79 mi79 min SSE 16 G 19 47°F 47°F7 ft988 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK4 mi26 minSSE 11 G 197.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F89%989.9 hPa
Annette Island Airport, AK20 mi86 minESE 14 G 266.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F42°F97%989.7 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK23 mi23 minESE 11 G 1810.00 miLight Rain46°F41°F83%989.2 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE19
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1 day agoW6W6NW3E4S3SE4SE4SE3SE3S6S6SE12
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2 days agoSE3S3CalmS3CalmCalmNW3NW6NW4NW11NW6NW10NW11NW14
G20
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NW8NW10NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Alaska
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Ketchikan
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:14 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:27 AM AKST     3.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM AKST     13.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:54 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:37 PM AKST     4.95 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:15 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:28 PM AKST     11.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4456.78.810.912.413.21311.81086.25.155.87.3910.411.211.210.38.76.9

Tide / Current Tables for Ward Cove, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Ward Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:14 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:24 AM AKST     3.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM AKST     13.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:55 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:34 PM AKST     4.95 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:15 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:22 PM AKST     11.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.945.179.211.312.813.513.211.9107.96.25.155.97.59.310.811.611.410.48.86.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.