Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saxman, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:11AMSunset 6:26PM Thursday October 19, 2017 7:22 AM PDT (14:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:02AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 353 Am Akdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Today..SE wind 15 kt becoming N in the late afternoon. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Showers in the morning.
Tonight..S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Fri..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances.
Fri night..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sun..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK
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location: 55.33, -131.63     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 191404
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
604 am akdt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis A low offshore of prince of wales island will move
through dixon entrance today on its way to southern clarence
strait late this afternoon. Meanwhile an elongated area of low
pressure over the northeast gulf will move ashore Thu night. A
ridge of high pressure will build over the panhandle on Friday.

Short term As the southeast gulf low slowly churns through
dixon entrance and into the southern portions of clarence strait
today, offshore flow will increase in the lower levels across
the northern panhandle. We have all but erased pops in much of
this region through this afternoon. But the duration and strength
of this event will do little to clear skies, even as many areas
will experience Sun breaks. Weak cool air advection will be
countered easily by a little more insolation, therefore, we expect
temperatures to vary little from yesterday.

Meanwhile high lapse rates in the vicinity of the low sparked
lightning Wednesday evening along the eastern shores of southern
prince of wales island. It also has resulted in moderate rain
showers across the far south. As the low draws nearer to
ketchikan, we expect a wind shift through clarence strait and
likelier through ketchikan as well. After gustiness early this
morning, winds will calm down across the south.

To the north, northern lynn canal has reacted to a tightening
pressure gradient with a strong 25 kt northerly. In addition, high
seas with a southwest swell will keep small craft advisories
posted for the outside waters through tonight at least.

After the low moves ashore, we expect strengthening onshore flow
as the longwave trough itself prepares to move eastward. This in
turn will expand the area of showers panhandle wide yet again.

However, due to a deep system approaching southeast from the
western gulf, the ridge begins to negatively tilt Friday night as
first wind and then rain north and eastward from the coast.

The 06z NAM provided a basis for any changes. Forecast confidence
is generally good.

Long term Saturday through Thursday model agreement is fair
for the weekend, then they differ quite a bit next week. Main
issue is timing of systems moving across the npac, potential for
at least 1 tropical system getting into the westerlies, and
interaction between these systems and an upper trof over W ak.

Decided to use the 12z 18 ECMWF to handle sat, then went with
mainly wpc for Sun onward.

First main system will be a complex low moving into the gulf by
sat. Looking like an occluded front will move N across the area
sat but will weaken as it moves across the N half of the area.

This front will most likely bring at least gale force winds with
it over the gulf, with at least SCA level and possibly gale force
winds to mainly the more e-w inner channels. Should see some rain
with the front sat, although as front weakens over the n, precip
may become more spotty as it encounters offshore low level flow.

The main low appears like it will move to the far n-central gulf
by late Sat night, then weaken there sun. As this happens, looking
more showery for the area especially later sun.

While model agreement is not good next week, they suggest at least
1 strong system will affect the area. This is when some effect
from what will be remnant of typhoon lan will come into play. The
model timing on how fast the typhoon moves into the westerlies
varies somewhat, with GFS gem faster than the ec by about 1 day.

(of interest... The joint typhoon warning center timing is right
in the middle of the 2 extremes) it is this feature that the
gfs gem spins up into a powerful storm S of the aleutians early
next week, then moves it into the gulf by late week. Ec also shows
a fairly strong system but it does not have remnants of lan in
it, and is somewhat weaker than the GFS gem. Still plenty of time
to monitor this situation. In between this larger system and the
one over the weekend, models suggest another low may try to move
ne into the gulf early next week but vast model differences exist
on this, so later forecasts may need to be updated to reflect this
system more than current forecast has it.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-041-042.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz022-043-051>053.

Jwa rwt
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 0 mi53 min E 4.1 G 6 49°F978.6 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 75 mi73 min Calm G 4.1 45°F 975.8 hPa42°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 79 mi83 min SSE 16 G 19 48°F 51°F8 ft976.5 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK4 mi30 minS 37.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F89%978.6 hPa
Annette Island Airport, AK20 mi30 minVar 39.00 miRain0°F0°F%978 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK23 mi27 minVar 610.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F86%977.8 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE18
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SE12SE8SE11
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SE12S6S6S4CalmS3
1 day agoCalmCalmSE3SE5SE6SE9SE9SE8E5SE6SE6SE7SE7SE14
G19
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G25
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G32
SE27
G44
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G28
SE17
G29
2 days agoE10SE4S4SE4SE7SE7E6SE7SE6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4N4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Tongass Narrows, Alaska
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Ketchikan
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Thu -- 01:02 AM AKDT     16.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM AKDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKDT     New Moon
Thu -- 01:09 PM AKDT     17.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:24 PM AKDT     -1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1516.115.112.28.24.11.20.21.44.48.512.615.817.216.413.69.44.81-1-0.81.55.39.5

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Island, George Inlet, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Coon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:54 AM AKDT     15.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM AKDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKDT     New Moon
Thu -- 01:01 PM AKDT     17.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:07 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:16 PM AKDT     -1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.11614.711.77.63.60.90.21.74.9913.11617.116138.74.20.6-1.1-0.61.95.810

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.