Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saxman, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 8:03PM Sunday March 26, 2017 9:48 PM PDT (04:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:19AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 318 Pm Akdt Sun Mar 26 2017
.small craft advisory late tonight through Monday...
Tonight..SE wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
Mon..SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt by late afternoon. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft by late afternoon. Rain.
Mon night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft...except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Tue..S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK
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location: 55.33, -131.63     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 262338
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
338 pm akdt Sun mar 26 2017

Short term A low W of haida gwaii will move nnw and reach the
far NE gulf by Mon afternoon. There were some model differences on
track and strength of this low, but based on satellite and obs at
18z, the 12z ECMWF and gem were handling this low the best, so
used them through 18z mon, then transitioned to previous forecast
by 00z Tue (for pressures/winds).

Main forecast concerns will be precip potential/ptype/amounts and
winds. As of 23z, rain was still just S of the far southern area.

Am expecting this precip to move N into the southern area this
evening. Looking like precip will reach the central area overnight
tonight, then the N Mon morning. The precip may be spotty
initially over the N half due to offshore flow, but later Mon this
offshore flow will weaken and allow more widespread precip to
occur. The precip will reach the NE gulf coast the latest,
probably late Mon morning. As far as ptype goes, much of the N and
central area will see at least some snow due to evaporative
cooling and some diurnal cooling of lower levels late tonight and
early Mon morning. Do not think this snow will last much past
mid-morning Mon through as boundary layer warms. Exception to this
would be over the far N where snow could mix in most of the
morning into the afternoon before the boundary layer warms.

Snowfall over the N third could reach an inch or 2 by mid-morning
mon with highest amounts over the far n. Over the remainder of the
area, little or no snow accumulation is expected.

Strongest winds will be on N and E side of low moving through the
e gulf tonight and mon. Should be some gales early tonight over
the far SE gulf, with SCA level winds expected over the remaining
gulf area. Winds on inner channels will pick up some tonight with
many areas reaching SCA levels especially over the more e-w
channels. N lynn canal will also pick up to SCA levels this
evening as northerly pressure gradient increases ahead of the low.

Looking like peak winds on most inner channels will occur mon
morning, with a diminishing trend in the afternoon as low reaches
the far NE gulf and weakens.

Long term Difficult forecast for Monday night with another
potential low moving up from the N pacific into the SE gulf. The
mid level low centered over the ak peninsula continues to rotate
waves over the ak gulf. There is a wave crossing up on Monday
evening which would help to push up a surface low to the north.

At the surface operational models have a large spread with this
feature. Gfs/canadian show a deeper gale force low moving further
north compared to the NAM and especially the ecmwf. However no
model shows agreement on the exact position and track of the low.

Decided to use a blend of gfs/nam as a compromise with a broad
brush approach to wind coverage, not going as high as the gfs
winds but stronger than ecmwf/nam.

Once this system passes through models fall more in line depicting
the next series of waves and lows tracking into the region. There
will be a brief drier period Tuesday into Wednesday, especially
for the southern regions as the next wave moves into the central
gulf with ridging over the southern panhandle. Southwesterly
onshore flow keeping chance pops over most of the area with a weak
front crossing over the northern regions. Late Thursday into
Friday will be the next significant system. This low originates
off the coast of japan, tracking across the pacific and into the
ak gulf by the end of the week. Expecting at minimum gale force
winds from this low over the gulf and wide spread heavy precip.

Warm air advection will likely produce mostly rain from this
system. Both 850 temp and precipitable water anomalies show this
system to be rather warm with deep layer moisture.

Besides to early gfs/nam blend not much change to extended
forecast as models were still mostly in line. A few nudges for
winds to a ecmwf/nam blend then update with new wpc. Forecast
confidence is very low initially but rises after the Monday night
system.

Ajk watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz041-042.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-022-031-033>036-043-051-
052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz053.

Rwt/prb
visit us at http://

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 0 mi49 min E 8 G 12 43°F1000.7 hPa (+0.5)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 75 mi39 min E 14 G 20 44°F 999 hPa31°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 79 mi49 min E 23 G 31 42°F 43°F6 ft997.8 hPa (+0.2)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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W1
G4

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK4 mi56 minVar 410.00 miLight Rain40°F35°F83%1000.8 hPa
Annette Island Airport, AK20 mi56 minESE 610.00 miOvercast43°F34°F71%1000.6 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK23 mi53 minE 6 G 1710.00 miOvercast43°F35°F76%1001.4 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SE10SE9SE9SE10SE9SE15
G21
S4S4S5S5S65
G15
SE10
G17
3SE4SE11
G18
E7E7SE8E10SE12S54
1 day agoCalmCalmSE4S3SE4SE9S6S7S4NW9N10S4SE5S4SE7SE7SE9SE10SE10SE6SE9SE6SE6S5
2 days agoCalmS3SW45CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Tongass Narrows, Alaska
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Ketchikan
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:02 AM AKDT     16.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:43 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM AKDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:11 PM AKDT     16.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:59 PM AKDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:19 PM AKDT     -1.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.116.215.212.38.240.9-0.30.73.77.81215.316.816.113.394.30.5-1.4-11.65.710.3

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Island, George Inlet, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Coon Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:54 AM AKDT     16.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:28 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:43 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:54 AM AKDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:03 PM AKDT     16.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:59 PM AKDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:11 PM AKDT     -1.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.216.114.811.87.63.50.6-0.314.28.412.515.516.715.712.78.33.70.1-1.5-0.72.16.310.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.