Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Craig, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 3:24PM Thursday November 23, 2017 6:58 PM AKST (03:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:47PMMoonset 9:13PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ041 Dixon Entrance To Cape Decision- 314 Pm Akst Thu Nov 23 2017
.gale warning this evening...
Tonight..S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening, then diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas building to 12 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain showers late.
Fri..S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers.
Fri night..S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
Sat..S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. Rain showers.
Sat night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Mon..S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Tue..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Craig, AK
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location: 55.35, -133.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 240011
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
311 pm akst Thu nov 23 2017

Short term through Friday night an occluded front over the
eastern gulf will move slowly NE across SE ak tonight and fri
morning. Parent low will move into the far S gulf by late
tonight, then wobble around the SE gulf through Fri night. Used
the 12z NAM to handle main system movement, with the main low
track adjusted to the NE some from previous forecast.

Main concern will be snowfall amounts. Still looking like a decent
snowfall event across the N tonight and Fri morning as front moves
in. Decided to start the winter wx advy for zones 20 and 25 at
00z this afternoon as snow has been falling all day and should
continue on and off until main snow band with the front comes
through later tonight and Fri morning. Went for 4 to 8 inches by
late Fri morning in the advisory areas. Elsewhere over the
n... Looking like a 2 to 4 inch snowfall tonight and 1 to 3 more
inches fri. Areas along S side of icy strait corridor will likely
see some rain mix in by early this evening... So snowfall in those
areas will be limited to 1 to 3 inches tonight. More shortwaves
moving around the main low center will bring snow showers to the n
third of the area Fri afternoon into late Fri night at least, and
these could produce several more inches of snow, but models
differ on placement of the heavier snow bands so no headlines will
be issued for this time frame attm.

Elsewhere, rain with snow mixed in at times over the more E areas
will continue into Fri morning before transitioning to showers.

Colder air will try to filter slowly S Fri night, which could
cause more of the central panhandle to become snow showers.

Expect a band of gale force winds ahead of the front in the
eastern gulf tonight, and some of these could get into clarence
strait for a short period late tonight as front moves through
them. Did drop the strong wind headlines though as stronger flow
aloft will coincide with warm advection so not expecting much
momentum transfer downward. Northerly winds will slowly increase
over the N tonight through Fri night, and winds should reach gale
force in lynn canal Fri and continue Fri night.

Long term Saturday through Thursday active weather pattern
continues through the long range. Uncertainty is still the word
for the weekend forecast. While there is some agreement at mid and
upper level patterns the details with surface features are
causing large variability. What is expected after the weekend is a
shift from the cold arctic air in place over the central and
northern panhandle to a warming trend. Needless to say forecast
confidence is low.

High amplitude pattern at mid levels on Saturday with upper level
trough over the eastern ak gulf dropping almost down to s
california with a sharp ridge to the west extending from the n
pacific and all the way into the chukchi sea. The trough ridge
will start to shift to the east and flatten through Sunday as
another low drops from the bering sea over the aleutians and over
the western gulf Monday. As this low moves east will have a
repeating pattern of ridge following the low, followed by another
low tracking across the aleutians and into the western gulf. The
weekend surface feature is causing the most difficulty. Low
pressure over the gulf on Friday was originally shown to move
quickly to the east but now indications that this feature will
become quasi stationary into Sunday before weakening and moving to
the south. If the GFS nam are correct the more southerly
positions of the low pushes more warm air over the panhandle,
raising temps and snow levels but would be drier. The ECMWF keeps
the low further north, keeps precip in longer but keeps northerly
flow and thus lower temps and snow levels. ECMWF has shown more
run to run variability for the weekend system but is more
consistent for the systems next week. The Monday low looks like a
typical SE ak system moving a low center into the western gulf
with frontal boundary moving across the eastern gulf then over the
panhandle Monday night into Tuesday. While models differ on the
position and strength of the low center, they are in general
agreement on southerly flow which would once again raise temps and
snow levels. Began the process of increasing temps and for now
have more mix of rain snow for areas north of frederick sound, but
could be switching this to all rain at lower elevations. In
addition to the precip and warming temps each low will bring in
another round of stronger gulf winds, with gales likely but
potential for stronger winds by Tuesday over the gulf. Not seeing
any real change to this warmer wetter pattern for the rest of the
week.

Initially models for Saturday had enough spread that changes
seemed undesired from the previous ensemble type forecast. Latest
check now shows, at least until 12z Sunday, more agreement on
rotating the low center counterclockwise over the southcentral ak
gulf before dissipating. Best agreement between the newest
gfs NAM but held off on using that blend until more detail for the
Friday system could be established. For the rest of the time
frame utilized latest wpc, which was pretty much in line with
previous wpc resulting in some minor adjustments to wind speeds.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory until 9 am akst Friday for akz020-025.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-022-041>043-051>053.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-013-021-031>036.

Rwt prb
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 59 mi48 min SE 20 G 32 41°F 991.1 hPa37°F
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 62 mi36 min SE 24 G 31
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 82 mi58 min SSE 19 G 23 42°F 46°F5 ft994.7 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK19 mi65 minSE 610.00 miLight Rain38°F36°F93%992.4 hPa

Wind History from AKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmCalm4S10SW74SW33CalmCalmSE5S6S5S7SE8S4S10S9SE9SE4E5SE4SE6
1 day agoNE9NE11
G17
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2 days agoNW4NW3E44CalmCalmCalm3CalmNE4NE3E4NE7
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6NE6NE9
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G16

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Flores, Ulloa Channel, Alaska
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Cape Flores
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Thu -- 03:37 AM AKST     8.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM AKST     4.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:46 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:41 PM AKST     9.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:35 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:12 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:40 PM AKST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.85.77.38.28.37.76.75.64.74.44.75.66.98.18.998.47.15.33.41.90.90.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Eagle Point, Meares Passage, Alaska
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Eagle Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:41 AM AKST     8.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:42 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:05 AM AKST     4.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:45 PM AKST     9.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:36 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:13 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:45 PM AKST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.85.97.68.68.88.27.15.84.84.44.75.77.18.59.49.697.65.73.720.90.71.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.