Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 10:16 PM Moonrise 4:08 AM   Moonset 4:14 PM

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PKZ165 Port Heiden To Cape Sarichef- 347 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tonight - NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu and Thu night - NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Fri through Sat - NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Sun - N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 041215 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 415 AM AKDT Sat May 4 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Today will feel much like a repeat of the last couple days for southcentral Alaska in terms of weather. Southeast flow on the east side of an eastern Bering upper-level low continues to push moisture and rainfall into the coastal Kenai and Chugach Mountains, with much of the inland areas remaining well in the downsloped, dry zone. The exception to this is a bit farther away from the downslope effect such the northern Susitna Valley where some places have recorded in the neighborhood of a quarter inch of rainfall. This precipitation is expected to taper off today as the low shifts farther southeast.

Once again, strong southeast gap winds are expected to increase in intensity later today, particularly out of the Turnagain Arm and Knik Arms and Copper River Basin. A few higher gusts are also possible up on the Anchorage Hillside. Temperatures will remain near climatological averages, with highs in the 50s for most of the region and lows in the mid/upper 30s to low 40s.

The associated large upper level low with this system crosses the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf later on Sunday, with a weak ridge building over interior Alaska. When combined with some weak upper level shortwaves and marginal instability, a few weak/light convective showers and/or thunderstorms may develop along the foothills of the Wrangell Mountains/Alaska Range in the northern Copper River Basin late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

-Brown/ME

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

A combination of rain, snow, and rain/snow mix will continue over the mainland through the weekend with more rain inland and rain/snow mix towards the coast. The story is also the same for the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), the eastern Aleutians, as well as the Pribilof Islands. The culprit of the active weather continues to be a vertically stacked and occluded low pressure system currently spinning in the eastern Bering Sea. This low will slowly move eastward to the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday.

A reinforcing shot of cold air from Russia looks to intrude upon the Bering for the beginning of the new work week with strong northerly flow through out most of the Sea. An upper-level low will drop out of the Bering Strait region and act as a vehicle to aid in the driving of cold air southward to the central/eastern Aleutians, Pribilof Islands, and AKPEN. Coastal southwest will also see cold air advect in from off of the Bering Sea as well.
This will help to turn any rain/snow shower mix over to all snow for Monday into Tuesday before warmer air tries to work towards the coast for Tuesday. With this cold air episode for Monday and Tuesday, expect most precipitation to be of the showery variety with most of it being being confined to the Bering Sea side of the AKPEN and eastern Aleutians. Finally, expect a renewed chance for freezing spray across most of the eastern Bering Sea Monday as the cold air really works in, with less coverage on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The upper level closed low near St Matthew Island weakens slowly and begins to move to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before stalling briefly near Kodiak Island through the forecast period. The broad trough over the Bering makes inroads over most of Mainland Alaska with the jetstream support and North Pacific energy along the Southern portions continuing. Model confidence becomes more uncertain through the weekend with a number of troughs rotating through the pattern. The next significant weather producer moves over the Western Aleutians beginning Wednesday night as a North Pacific low and front moves across to the Eastern Aleutians by the weekend.

Overall breezy conditions linger across the Aleutians and AKPEN through midweek, becoming gustier Wednesday night in the West, and spreading to the Eastern Aleutians for Friday. Gale force winds across the Southern edges of the low remain South of the Western Aleutians Wednesday and Thursday before diminishing. Rain spreads over the Aleutians through the forecast. Above average rainfall is expected to spread into Southwest Alaska, over the AKPEN into Cook Inlet and Kodiak Island for Wednesday and extends along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula across Prince William Sound to the Canadian Border. Heaviest precipitation will occur in the coastal zones, with lesser amounts spreading inland through Friday.

-Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind returns for brief periods during the day across the terminal area as the strongest winds aloft lift to the 3000 to 4000 ft level and weaken through Saturday afternoon.

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Amak Island
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Sat -- 05:02 AM AKDT     7.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:20 AM AKDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM AKDT     5.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:56 PM AKDT     1.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Amak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Grant Point
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Sat -- 12:28 AM AKDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:07 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:18 AM AKDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:37 PM AKDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:12 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:19 PM AKDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grant Point, Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, Tide feet

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