Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cold Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:43AMSunset 4:37PM Friday January 19, 2018 2:26 AM AKST (11:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:24AMMoonset 8:15PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ165 Port Heiden To Cape Sarichef- 252 Pm Akst Thu Jan 18 2018
.small craft advisory Friday night...
Tonight..N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
Fri night..N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat..N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Sat night..N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Sun through Mon..N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Tue..N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cold Bay, AK
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location: 55.42, -163.12     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 190058
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
358 pm akst Thu jan 18 2018

Analysis and upper levels
There are 2 primary features across alaska today. The first is a
cut-off, vertically stacked low parked just south of the kenai
peninsula. This low continue to wrap moisture across most of
southern ak. For the southwest, this is resulting in lingering
snow showers from bethel down through king salmon. These snow
showers are definitely over overachieving as they are working with
very little forcing and moisture. However, they are not much
producing much in terms of snow accumulation with king salmon only
receiving 0.2" from 8am to noon. For areas from the cook inlet
through the copper river basin, this moisture is resulting in low
clouds and some extensive fog along the copper river.

The other primary feature is a strengthening surface high under a
building ridge near the gulf of anadyr. As anti-cyclonic
(clockwise) flow continues around this feature, it will have
access to abundant cold air. It is already starting to pull some
of this cold air southward from the chukchi sea (and siberia). It
could be aiding in keeping the snow showers going over SW ak. The
cold air will become the story for the weekend and into next week.

Model discussion
Models in the short-term are doing quite well and forecast
confidence is rather high. The few specific areas of uncertainty
are the snow showers in sw, timing when fog dissipates, and how
much moisture can work back from the east to the west over south
central in the upcoming cold pattern. Models are not doing great
with the current snow showers, so satellite and radar trends were
used to address those. They will continue to die off through the
day. Higher resolution models were used in trying to depict the
fog and lower stratus across southcentral. There is not much
forcing to help "kick" that stuff out of the lower lying areas, so
have leaned towards keeping it in the forecast longer. Then
finally is how much moisture will make it up to the north gulf
coast over the next several days. Models all show various pieces
of energy moisture working from east to west in broad cyclonic
flow. As the cold air digs in from the north and west, we will
closely watch this moisture and see if it could lead to any snow
for inland areas.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Some patchy low
clouds from the cook inlet could float near the terminal, but
don't expect them to become widespread.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The main forecast challenges heading into the weekend are gusty
offshore winds and colder temperature trends. A weak upper low
remains stationary through tonight then becomes and open wave by
Saturday. This center aids in keeping clouds about the area
through Friday which allows for temperatures to slowly moderate
downward. Areas of fog develops again tonight across the copper
river as low level moisture remains abundant and steep temperature
inversions set up just off the surface. Improvement is expected
during the day on Friday, however this cycle continues through
Saturday as the pattern remains stagnant over this area.

Offshore flow, which developed today, gusts along typical gaps
locations through the weekend. The strongest gusts are expected to
increase late Saturday as the ridge forces the cold air mass from
the southwest mainland to the western gulf. The building ridge
over the bering moves further east with subsidence drying along
its eastern periphery. This should briefly clear out skies across
the western gulf, cook inlet to the western susitna valley. A low
pressure system tracking along to the eastern gulf limits the
ridges eastward progression as it takes a northward turn late
Saturday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
The main story for the next couple days will be increasing
northerly winds and colder air moving into southwest. The first
push of much colder air comes Friday. Winds will be strongest
across the kuskokwim delta and coastal bristol bay, and with cold
air moving down from the arctic, some areas (especially the
kuskokwim delta) can expect wind chill values to drop to -25f
Friday night and as low as -35f Saturday and Saturday night.

Otherwise, this air mass will be bringing down much drier air, so
any flurries patchy fog tonight should be replaced by clearing
skies.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
A weakening low over the western bering sea and the associated
stalled front will fall apart tonight as the bering sea comes
under increasing influence of offshore flow originating from the
bering strait and southwest coast. Snow showers will be possible
through Friday, but mostly dry conditions and northerly flow will
begin to dominate. However, a gale force front will move into the
western bering Friday night then stall in place as high pressure
builds over the central bering sea.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term begins Sunday night and Monday with a high
amplitude upper high over the bering sea and a trough to the east,
which includes a closed low in the gulf of alaska and another over
northern alaska. There is weak ridging in between the two lows
over southcentral. Strong northerly flow will be over the alaska
west coast and alaska peninsula. During the first half of next
week the gulf low will slide east, and the bering high will
weaken. This will allow the north alaska low to dive southward,
reaching southern alaska around the middle of next week. The exact
path and timing of this southward traversing low is not agreed
upon exactly by the models, but agreement is good enough for a
fairly high confidence forecast for this time range. The end
result of all of this is a fairly cold regime with temperatures
below normal over mainland southern alaska. Some precipitation is
possible through the period for the gulf coastal areas. There is a
chance some precipitation could get further inland, depending on
how the gulf low behaves, but confidence in this is low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 177 178 180.

Heavy freezing spray 160 180 181.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mso
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja
long term... Bl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK 49 mi39 min N 13 G 19 29°F 40°F1002.4 hPa

Wind History for King Cove, AK
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N27
G36
NW28
G42

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cold Bay, Cold Bay Airport, AK26 mi34 minNW 125.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist26°F24°F92%1003.9 hPa

Wind History from ACD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W10N5W4W5N11NW4NW4NW4N6--N10N9N7N5N10N7N11N9N11N5N9NW13NW12
1 day agoNW23
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2 days agoS6CalmW4W6SW6W7W4CalmW5W7NW7NW10NW12N13N17
G27
N13NW12NW14NW21
G25
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Tide / Current Tables for Amak Island, Bristol Bay, Alaska
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Amak Island
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Fri -- 03:15 AM AKST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:23 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:49 AM AKST     8.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:23 PM AKST     5.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:02 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:39 PM AKST     6.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:15 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.121.10.70.91.52.63.95.36.67.588.17.77.16.465.86.36.96.86.55.84.9

Tide / Current Tables for Grant Point, Izembek Lagoon, Bristol Bay, Alaska
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Grant Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:32 AM AKST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:22 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:05 PM AKST     4.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:01 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:40 PM AKST     2.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM AKST     4.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:15 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.31.71.10.60.40.40.81.52.43.344.54.74.54.23.73.22.92.8443.83.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.