Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hollis, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 8:57 PM AKDT (04:57 UTC) Moonrise 8:03AMMoonset 9:05PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 600 Pm Akdt Wed Aug 23 2017 Updated
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Showers early in the evening.
Thu..SE wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hollis, AK
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location: 55.48, -132.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 232218
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
218 pm akdt Wed aug 23 2017

Short term through Friday night a low over the far SE gulf
will drift ese across haida gwaii this evening before dissipating
late tonight. A weak upper trof will move SE across the far N area
this evening. An occluded front will move E into the eastern gulf
by Thu evening, then push across SE ak Thu night and fri. A
series of low pressure trofs will move across the area fri
afternoon and Fri night. Blended in 12z GFS with previous forecast
for 12z Thu to 12z Fri period, mainly to increase winds a bit
ahead of the front. Used 15z SREF to adjust pops some, with manual
edits to help fix any issues.

Showers with the low over the SE gulf will move slowly out of the
area tonight. Some showers with weak upper trof will brush by the
n area mainly this evening. Then, well ahead of next front,
showers will increase in coverage Thu as low level convergence
increases within a shallow convective airmass over SE ak. Rain
with the front will move into the outer coast and W parts of the
inner channels late in the afternoon, then spread further inland
thu evening. After the front moves by late Thu night and fri,
precip will become showery again, but with several trofs moving
across the area Fri into Fri night, expect shower coverage to
remain on the high side with a moist low level airmass moving
across the area.

Band of 20-30 kt winds on E side of low over the SE gulf should
diminish late this afternoon, although it may take a bit longer
for diminishing trend to occur over the far S inner channels.

Winds will ramp up over the gulf again Thu as next front moves in.

Winds ahead of the front could reach min gales late in the
afternoon or early Thu evening over the far n-central gulf, but
for now going with 30 kt. SCA level winds should affect most gulf
zones Thu afternoon and evening. After front moves by, winds
should drop below SCA levels over the gulf. On the inner channels,
expect most places to peak in the 15-20 kt range ahead of the
front from Thu afternoon into early fri, but would not be
surprised if 20-25 kt winds show up in a few spots. After front
moves through inner channels, winds should still remain mostly in
the 15-20 kt range but locally stronger winds could occur as any
low pressure trof moves through.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday upper level low will
drop over the aleutian chain into the western gulf then broaden
over the central and eastern gulf through Saturday. By Sunday this
low will track north while weakening as high pressure builds over
the panhandle and eastern gulf through late Monday. Another upper
low forms over the western gulf by mid week, however its
interaction with the high pressure ridge and eventual track is
uncertain. At the surface frontal band will have moved into the
panhandle with rain across the entire panhandle. Series of surface
waves rotating under the upper low will move over the panhandle
into Saturday before starting to diminish on Sunday. Heaviest
rain fall likely to occur into Saturday morning. More model
spread starting Sunday with the position of the surface features.

Ecmwf a more northerly low track and faster drying trend for the
south while GFS moves low center much further south with higher
rainfall amounts there. This variation lasts into Monday, but by
Tuesday operational models fall more in line with high pressure
over the panhandle keeping most fronts precip off to the west.

Due to uncertainty into Sunday kept with a broad brush approach
to wind fields.

Inherited forecast and new model runs for early Saturday were
still in line so little change was made. Due to large operational
spread starting Sunday kept with wpc ensemble approach, which also
showed little variation from previous runs. Initially higher
confidence but this quickly drops through the weekend.

Hydrology Most area streams and rivers have fallen somewhat,
but some localized rises are occurring over the southern panhandle
with band of heavier showers moving through. Do not expect any
flooding issues from this however, and streams should drop quickly
tonight across the south. Not seeing any issues for the area for
thu night into Fri with next front, as streams should have plenty
of time to fall quite a bit before rain moves in with next front.

Also, rainfall with next front will be much less than the system
from early in the week.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz035-036-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041-042.

Rwt prb
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 40 mi47 min S 9.9 G 12 54°F 1010 hPa51°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 55 mi45 min E 4.1 G 12 55°F 55°F1011.9 hPa
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 78 mi57 min ESE 9.7 G 12 55°F 54°F4 ft1010 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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NE2
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SE2
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G34
SE11
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SE11
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G15
S3
G8
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hydaburg - Hydaburg Seaplane Base, AK21 mi61 minN 08.00 miLight Rain54°F53°F97%1010.1 hPa
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK24 mi64 minNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F51°F87%1010 hPa

Wind History from AHY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE13SE17E12
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SE113Calm
1 day agoSE17SE24
G28
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G30
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G37
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G30
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G27
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SE13SE11SE5SW3S3SE8SE6SE5SW7SW5S6S6SE9
2 days agoSE12SE17
G20
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G22
SE19SE20
G25
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G23
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--SE10SE11SE11SE12SE18SE15
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SE11--

Tide / Current Tables for Hollis Anchorage, Kasaan Bay, Alaska
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Hollis Anchorage
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Thu -- 02:57 AM AKDT     17.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:00 AM AKDT     -1.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:17 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:26 PM AKDT     16.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM AKDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:25 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.313.2161715.712.37.62.9-0.5-1.7-0.62.46.610.914.516.416.213.9105.72.10.30.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Karta Bay, Kasaan Bay, Alaska
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Karta Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:58 AM AKDT     17.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:09 AM AKDT     -1.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:17 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:27 PM AKDT     16.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:24 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:28 PM AKDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
913.216.217.316.112.78.13.3-0.3-1.9-1.11.96.210.814.616.716.614.310.462.30.20.32.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.