Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hollis, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:15PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:15 PM AKST (02:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:57AMMoonset 1:22AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 315 Pm Akst Thu Feb 22 2018
.small craft advisory through this evening and Friday...
Tonight..SE wind increasing to 25 kt in the evening, then becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
Fri..SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow showers in the morning.
Fri night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Sat..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Snow and rain.
Sat night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow showers.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt becoming nw. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW wind 10 kt becoming se. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hollis, AK
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location: 55.48, -132.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 222351
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
251 pm akst Thu feb 22 2018

Short term through Friday night low pressure will move ese
from the N gulf to the central panhandle by midday fri. The low
will weaken and continue SE Fri night. Another low will move e
into the NW gulf Fri night. This will be a continuation of the
active pattern that has been going on since last weekend. Ended up
making only minor changes to the forecast as it was in pretty
good shape overall, although did tweak pops and winds a bit based
on trends.

Still keeping the wsw for heavy snow for zones 25 and 26. Added in
a wwa for zone 18. Still looks like a wet snow will fall in the
juneau and petersburg areas with 4 to 8 inches likely by 18z fri.

Still some concerns about low level temps in these areas, but
current expectations are that the high precip rates snowmelt
cooling will overcome the slight warm advection in the lower
levels to keep precip mainly as snow in the warning area. The wwa
for zone 18 will be mainly for higher elevations, with 3 to 6
inches likely tonight. Still expecting mainly rain along the outer
coast, with rain and snow over the S inner channels. As low
sweeps SE through the area fri, precip should diminish from the nw
during the day.

Some colder air will move in late Fri and Fri night as flow
becomes northerly between systems. Should see decent breaks in the
clouds develop Fri evening, but clouds will increase again later
fri night ahead of the next low moving into the gulf. Some precip
could reach the outer coast by daybreak sat.

Long term Saturday through Thursday a much more active
pattern can definitely be expected for SE alaska. For the early
part of the long term on Saturday, we'll start off with a
developing shortwave out of mainland alaska that will strengthen
over the central gulf and impact the panhandle. Overall, our
confidence has increased regarding this feature, and deterministic
models have come into better agreement. Model 500 mb vorticity
and winds indicate additional strengthening from increasing
vorticity and jet dynamics. It appears to take a similar track as
some of our previous lows, and if we go off precedence, the
precipitation type with this system will most likely remain as
snow, and model 925 mb temperatures confirm our suspicions. The
more difficult aspect with this shortwave will be QPF or how much
precipitation we can expect. Due to the origin of this shortwave,
moisture may initially be lacking, but the marine environment may
alleviate this, as there appear to be relatively strong west,
southwesterlies aloft to advect in additional moisture.

On Sunday, model analysis continues to show this low weakening as
it tracks southeast along the panhandle and a weak ridge of high
pressure quickly building in behind Sunday night into Monday.

Another shortwave then appears develop Monday, again over the
central gulf, before possibly impacting the panhandle Monday
night. However, there is quite a bit of disagreement among the
deterministic models regarding surface features and timing. Seeing
this, we tended to gravitate towards wpc guidance Tuesday onward
to account for this uncertainty.

The main changes we made to the long term forecast consisted of
increasing chances for precipitation on Saturday and continuing
into Sunday. In addition, we increased winds over the gulf and
some of the inner channels Saturday night into Sunday as that
developing low mentioned previously strengthens and the pressure
gradient tightens between it and a high pressure over british
columbia, canada. We tended to gravitate towards the NAM for the
12z Saturday to 12z Sunday period, as models were in pretty good
agreement at this point. After this period, we mainly chose to use
wpc guidance and nbm analysis.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter storm warning until 9 am akst Friday for akz025-026.

Winter weather advisory until 5 am akst Friday for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-013-041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz021-022-031>036.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz053.

Rwt voveris
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 40 mi66 min SE 12 G 20 35°F 1021.6 hPa35°F
GIXA2 41 mi24 min ESE 13 G 19 33°F 1023.7 hPa30°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 55 mi46 min SE 8.9 G 12 1024.7 hPa
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 78 mi76 min S 7.8 G 9.7 42°F 43°F6 ft1024.5 hPa (-2.7)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hydaburg - Hydaburg Seaplane Base, AK21 mi20 minno data5.00 miFog/Mist40°F37°F93%1032.8 hPa
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK24 mi83 minS 53.00 miFog/Mist39°F37°F96%1022.5 hPa

Wind History from AHY (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Hollis Anchorage, Kasaan Bay, Alaska
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Hollis Anchorage
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:21 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:42 AM AKST     15.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:08 AM AKST     2.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:23 PM AKST     12.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:02 PM AKST     3.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
57.710.613.214.71513.811.48.35.3322.54.26.69.111.112.21210.78.66.34.63.9

Tide / Current Tables for Karta Bay, Kasaan Bay, Alaska
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Karta Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:21 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:43 AM AKST     15.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:17 AM AKST     1.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:10 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:24 PM AKST     12.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:11 PM AKST     3.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.67.410.513.31515.314.211.88.65.53.11.92.23.96.49.111.312.412.3118.96.54.63.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.