Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nelson Lagoon, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 9:51PM Thursday August 17, 2017 7:26 AM AKDT (15:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:48AMMoonset 5:29PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ155 South Of The Ak Peninsula Castle Cape To Cape Sarichef- 321 Am Akdt Thu Aug 17 2017
.gale warning today...
Today..W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Tonight..W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Fri..W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Fri night..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sun through Mon..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nelson Lagoon, AK
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location: 55.58, -161.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 171210
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
410 am akdt Thu aug 17 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Infrared satellite imagery has been our best friend tonight
because it has allowed us to track a cold pool that had been
situated over anchorage during the evening hours. After several
rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall accompanied by thunder and
small hail, the cold pool associated with the upper level low over
southcentral alaska has finally shifted off to the north. While
anchorage has seen improving conditions, rainfall continues
across portions of the matanuska and susitna valleys early this
morning. Water vapor imagery has also been useful because it has
allowed us to track the jet streak that continues to dig out the
upper level trough that extends across the alaska mainland into
the north pacific. Needless to say, the trough over the state of
alaska is rather impressive with the upstream ridge over the
bering sea being equally as impressive.

Attention is beginning to turn towards ex-tropical storm banyan as
it begins it's extratropical transition and moves toward the
central aleutians. There should be little impact to the aleutian
islands in terms of wind and rain as much of the cold air is tied
to the arctic trough currently encompassing the alaska mainland.

With little cold air to ingest, this cold core "extratropical
low" will have a hard time gaining strength.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement through this afternoon but are
struggling how to resolve the low pressure system approaching
mekoryuk and how it will dissipate over bristol bay later today.

This should have only minor impacts on the overall forecast with
the main focus being the arctic trough entrenched across the
alaska mainland. With the trough well entrenched across the state,
it looks like continued rain showers will be common as mid-level
and upper-level instability should help maximize precipitation
processes. Ex-tropical storm banyan will remain a problem child
until the extratropical transition is complete and it begins being
picked up by the upper air network. Exact placement of this
system as it moves toward the aleutians is rather difficult to
determine but the arctic trough over the mainland should actually
deter the system and keep it from impacting the mainland.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will continue through
tonight with the possibility of a few stray showers throughout the
day. MVFR ceilings are expected Friday morning as stratus over
cook inlet develops and moves into the airport.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper level trough over southern alaska will remain in place
for the next couple of days while slowly weakening. The flow aloft
will periodically switch between southwest and west as a series of
vorticity maximums sweep through the area. The over-all result of
this will be cloudy and showery weather. The shower activity will
increase with each vort-max and decrease in between them.

Temperatures will be a bit below normal, especially the daytime
highs.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper low over the bering strait will continue to eject minor
shortwave disturbances southeastward along the western periphery
of the associated trough, and over much of the southwest mainland
through Saturday morning. This pattern will keep precipitation
over much of the southwest mainland into the weekend, with a small
break decrease in shower coverage Friday night into Saturday
morning. Foggy conditions are also expected over parts of the
kuskokwim delta and bristol bay areas, as persistent onshore flow
keeps a healthy supply of moisture flowing over the area.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Rain and gale force northwesterly winds will continue streaming
from the central bering into the eastern aleutians ak pen as a
deformation band passes through this morning. Most of the
rainfall from this system will be focused along a narrow area with
the deformation band over the eastern bering and stretching
southeastward into the alaska peninsula. A second wave of
precipitation will quickly follow a similar track from the
northern bering, tracking into the pribilof islands tonight and
stretching southeastward into the alaska peninsula through Friday
afternoon.

Also starting on Friday, the extra tropical remnants of tropical
storm banyan will have weakened substantially as it moves into the
central eastern aleutians. There is very good confidence that
this system will have weakened to small craft or less by the time
it approaches the chain, with no significant impacts expected to
the area.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
An active wet pattern continues in the long range forecast
Saturday through late next Tuesday. A merger of two low pressure
systems is anticipated for this upcoming weekend. A broad trough
deepens over the western coast and shifts east through Saturday.

At the same time a fast paced north pacific low races along the
aleutian chain, taking a northward turn Saturday night. The merger
of these two systems will likely bring moderate to heavy rainfall
along the gulf coastal areas and southcentral. Models differ in
timing and track of this merger, therefore a broad brushed
solution of the ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS were used to update
the inherited forecast. For the bering and southwest mainland, a
short break with drier conditions settles in Sunday as a ridge
builds behind the eastward moving trough over the mainland. On
Monday rain moves back into the southwest coast from a fast diving
low off of kamchatka, and another north pacific front moves into
the western bering aleutians along an eastward progressive
subtropical jet streak.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale... 155 170 171
fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mmc
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tp
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 44 mi38 min WSW 14 G 18 53°F 54°F1003.4 hPa
KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK 66 mi38 min N 7 G 19 54°F 53°F1004.5 hPa

Wind History for Sand Point, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nelson Lagoon, AK30 mi30 minWSW 18 G 275.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy52°F51°F97%1002.8 hPa

Wind History from AOU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14S14SW16
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W13W11W9W9W9W10W9W10W11S8S9SW7SW18SW18
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1 day agoSW6SW9SW11SW10S10SW14
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2 days agoCalmNE3NE3N5N5N6N5N6N8N8NW10NW9NW9NW7NW9NW7W8W8W6SW4SW7SW7S6--

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Bay, Pavlof Bay, Alaska
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Canoe Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:48 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:21 AM AKDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:59 PM AKDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 PM AKDT     2.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.15.44.43.11.80.80.30.40.91.72.73.54.14.34.13.83.432.93.13.64.35.26

Tide / Current Tables for Beaver Bay, Alaska
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Beaver Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:47 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:33 AM AKDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:01 PM AKDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:10 PM AKDT     3.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:12 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:29 PM AKDT     7.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.25.13.72.210.40.40.91.82.944.64.84.74.443.63.43.544.95.96.87.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.