Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Edna Bay, AK

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:53PM Sunday September 23, 2018 5:23 PM AKDT (01:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:55PMMoonset 4:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 305 Pm Akdt Sun Sep 23 2018
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near ocean entrances in the evening. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Tue..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tue night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed..W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..N wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edna Bay, AK
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location: 55.68, -133.58     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 232254
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
254 pm akdt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis As a front over SE ak moves into canada, a ridge will
build across the gulf and the panhandle Sun night. On Mon a new
front will move into the central gulf and reach the panhandle mon
night. Outlook. A third front will lift N into the gulf tue.

Short term Our front's most impressive feature was the
rainfall. We received a welcomed quarter to 1.5 inches of rain
across the lower elevations of southeast alaska with up to 2
inches falling across the higher elevations. Earlier we posted a
morning update with increased pop QPF to better cover current
conditions. Now with a building ridge behind the front, we are
increasingly skeptical that there will be largescale clearing
tonight. In fact, an exceedingly moist boundary layer, somewhat
new to us ironically, may provide a sealed region wide petri-dish
for low clouds to multiply and spread quicker than the nighttime
flu. How close to the surface it forms, we are uncertain, but it
remains a good possibility.

Another front pushes in from the southwest Monday and due to
better agreement we raised pops to 100 percent across the north as
it moves in. Confidence falls in the track of a wave pulling to
the south late Monday night and Tuesday. Thus pops were smoothed
to 70 percent and we presented a broader cone of uncertainty with
chance pops on either end of the higher confidence area Tuesday
going into Wednesday.

Winds were largely unchanged, especially Monday night beyond,
except for a few local effects. The strengthening winds for lynn
canal Monday night Tuesday still looks good, and we adjusted
skagway accordingly.

Confidence is generally good through Monday but falls going into
Tuesday regarding where exactly the next focus of precipitation
tracks as it sinks south. How far? Time will tell.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday as of 10pm Saturday. High
pressure centered SE of the gulf will remain nearly stationary
through early Thursday. The front forecast to move across se
alaska Monday will likely stall along the southern gulf and bring
persistent rain to the southern and possibly central panhandle
Tuesday morning through Wednesday. The stationary front will
likely shear apart as the parent low lifts N over the aleutians
into the bering sea Thursday.

Model solutions diverge a bit late Wednesday into Thursday as the
gfs wants to develop a weak low in the E gulf, providing the
panhandle with another burst of rain, while the ECMWF and
canadian prefer the idea of the front falling apart. By Friday the
models come back into better alignment as the upper ridge builds
over the gulf from the npac into the ak interior. Models in fairly
good agreement at the moment are suggesting that an outflow
pattern sets up Friday, lasting possibly through the weekend.

Surface high is progged to build over the northern yukon Friday,
and winds may also possibly be enhanced by mid-level shortwave
features dropping south across the panhandle. This pattern should
set us up for another dry period and warm temperatures to above
climatological norms for late september.

Preferred GFS nam solution early on to handle the front, nudging
more toward wpc guidance afterward. Did incorporate a blend of
the operational models (gfs, ecmwf, and canadian) later in the
week to begin trending outflow winds upward slightly. Forecast
confidence is average through the extended period.

Aviation Variable but low level ceilings, and thus impactful
ones have plagued tafs all day. On the positive, is that winds are
mainly insignificant. With a gradual veering of winds aloft to
northwest, clearing may expand eastward from yakutat, but
satellite and webcams do not show promise. In fact, we are
beginning the 00z tafs lower than what we promised earlier, and
have in fact have kept things at least MVFR through much of
tonight as ridging develops and winds lighten ahead of the next
system. However, right now, we don't think it will be visibilities
that will be the serious issue, but lower ceilings.

Marine Welcome to fall, mariners. While we have no wide-spread
small crafts across the inner channels, 15 to 20 kt winds have
definitely made things more interesting for smaller skiffs. These
winds on the whole will lighten today, and we may be dealing with
some directional issues as gradients fall apart tonight.

Confidence is not high for direction for both the far north like
lynn canal and the far south like clarence strait.

Hydrology Beneficial rains have fallen across much of the
region in the last 24 hours with amounts varying from one quarter
inch to up 1.5 inches with some higher elevations receiving close
to 2 inches. Our drought plagued region needs to soak it in. In
fact, strong instability has produced moderate to heavy rain
showers from juneau and sitka this morning down to angoon and
wrangell petersburg this afternoon. These showers will lessen
tonight. Modest rises have been seen across area rivers and
streams but no issues are expected as background stream levels
have been very low.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-041>043-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz051.

Jwa ddh
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 37 mi61 min WSW 25 G 29
CDXA2 37 mi31 min WSW 21 G 23 53°F 1015.7 hPa51°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 54 mi73 min W 8 G 14 58°F 1014.3 hPa53°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 69 mi41 min E 1 G 2.9 56°F 49°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK27 mi30 minS 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F93%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from AKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S3SW3CalmS5S4S6S5S5--S4S3Calm3SW6S6S6S6--55SW5S8
1 day agoS4S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW33S5SW8SW53CalmSW6
2 days agoS6S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----CalmCalmCalmSW55SW74SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Anguilla Island, Gulf of Esquibel, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Port Alice, Heceta Island, Davidson Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.