Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 9:01 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 5:37 AM

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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 318 Am Akdt Fri Apr 26 2024
Today - N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Tonight - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - S wind 20 kt becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.Sat night - SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.Sun - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Mon - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Tue - N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 261416 CCA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 433 AM AKDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SHORT TERM
Quiet weather continues through Friday, though another system arrives on Saturday which will bring rain back to SE AK. Through the day on Friday though, expect the clearer skies to continue across most of the area. A marine layer which formed along the outer Gulf Coast will move back offshore, and potentially even dissipate through Friday evening as the prevailing winds switch from NW to SE at the synoptic level. High temperatures across many locations will likely reach 60F or above, driven by diurnal heating and a lack of cloud cover. Fog in a few locations will dissipate through the morning hours as warming temperatures result in a separation between temperature and dewpoint.

Chances of precip begin to return tonight to the southern panhandle.
Made a few changes to the forecast, mainly to the cloud cover. A few minimal changes to the temperatures as well, but the forecast remains largely on track.

LONG TERM
The main theme through the weekend is that an open longwave trough will move into the Gulf, bringing in a 988mb to 998mb surface low, with an escalation in southeasterly winds, waves, and some light rain. The 988mb low demands attention, but is a manifest of the uncertainty found within the deterministic trends. For now, have found a happy medium in the ensembles, with a hedge in the wind field towards the more serious GFS and NAMNEST solution. Confidence is very low that we see a 988mb low develop on the Gulf on Saturday; however, upstream development and model trends will have to be monitored closely as more high resolution models start to capture this feature. Main questions to answer in the coming 24 hours as we watch cyclogenesis is how our waters will either stabilize, or add to the instability, of the air mass, which has implications on how much momentum we can mix down to the surface thus impacting surface wind speeds. If the more robust solutions featuring instability comes to fruition, there is potential to see gale force winds near Dixon and along the western coast of Prince of Wales, along with more elevated and sustained southwest winds Sunday into Monday which increases and prolongs the southwest swell a bit.

QPF (quantitative precipitation forecasts) continue to trend downwards but there is some hope if the more aggressive deterministic solutions come to fruition, which could steer some relatively higher IVT into the south. For now, the current forecast utilizes a modern statistical approach, with 48 hour rain totals coming in under 1 inch for most of the region over the weekend into Monday.

Tuesday a secondary low forms aloft near Queen Charlotte sound, with northerly flow developing across the Gulf as high pressure builds from the west, likely leading to warming temperatures and clearing skies into Wednesday. With that said, will need to watch the potential for a shallow marine layer keeping some areas a little cooler. Diurnal wind regimes also come to mind.

Attention turns to end of next week as another system lifts into the Gulf, with the potential to see a bit more moisture moving into the northern regions.

AVIATION
VFR conditions continue this morning across the panhandle as high pressure remains over the gulf. Some areas of low clouds are trying to move into the outer coast this morning as a result of a marine layer trying to develop. So far, only nuisance clouds have been reported but MVFR to IFR conditions are possible in this layer. With the exception of the marine layer, conditions across the panhandle should remain clear with either diurnal winds or a north wind depending on where you are in the panhandle.

MARINE
The Gulf continues to be docile, with concerns remaining low through Friday.

Threats escalate Saturday into Monday for our mariners operating smaller vessels across southeast Alaskan waters as a band of 25-30 knot southeasterly winds and 7 to 12ft south southwest fresh seas develop, south of Cape Fairweather along our coast. Expect the highest significant wave heights west of Prince of Wales near Dixon Entrance, with southerly 5 to 9ft fresh seas in far southern Clarence Strait exposed to the open waters of Dixon. Mariners operating in Icy Strait will also feel an increase of 15 to 20 knot easterly winds Saturday, with the most concern around Pt.
Couverden and Skull Island.

Some wording of caution around Saturday for the south. There is potential to see a brief period of gale force winds which would lead to an increase in significant wave heights; however, confidence remains too low to put this threat into the forecast.
Will need to continue to monitor the system as it moves off the Aleutian Islands into the Gulf.

Tidal variations are relaxing compared to the large swings we saw with the full moon on April 23rd, with Third Quarter on May 1st.

Many thanks to the operators in our waters who reported their conditions to WFO Juneau throughout the week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Davis River entrance
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Fri -- 02:21 AM AKDT     17.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:07 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:37 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:56 AM AKDT     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:19 PM AKDT     14.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM AKDT     3.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Davis River entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Halibut Bay
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Fri -- 02:17 AM AKDT     16.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:08 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:41 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:51 AM AKDT     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:15 PM AKDT     13.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:08 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:50 PM AKDT     3.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Halibut Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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