Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Perryville, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:43AMSunset 4:37PM Friday January 19, 2018 7:59 AM AKST (16:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:09AMMoonset 7:57PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perryville, AK
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location: 55.85, -159.1     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 191303
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
403 am akst Fri jan 19 2018

Analysis and upper levels
There are 2 main features across alaska today. The first is a
decaying low over the gulf of alaska which continues to produce
showers that are detectable on the middleton island radar. A
another low south of the aforementioned low continues to push
eastward along 50n which will not directly impact south central
but it will interact with the remnants of the low just outside
prince william sound. The other primary feature is a
strengthening surface high near the gulf of anadyr. This surface
high has been over siberia will continue to migrate towards the
central bering. Anomalously cold air is trapped in this feature
and this will have a major impact on the region as the forecast
period unfolds.

Model discussion
There is good model consensus with the synoptic features and
good run to run continuity. That said, there are a few areas of
uncertainty regarding timing of fog dissipation and pinpointing
the temperatures as we head into a much cooler pattern.

Aviation
Panc... Fog has moved down knik arm and has reduced visibility and
cigs. The latest viirs image has a large area of stratus spanning
from knik arm and down cook inlet which is camouflaging the fog.

Looking at the models, the MOS guidance is anticipating overcast
conditions at panc for the next 24 hrs with the fog ebbing and
flowing around the airport.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Though there is an upper low currently parked over southcentral
alaska, shallow inversions and low level moisture have given rise
to areas of fog from cook inlet western kenai, anchorage bowl, to
over the matanuska valley (especially knik arm). Stratus and fog
are more widespread across the copper river basin. Except for the
copper river basin, where the low conditions are expected to
linger into Saturday, the other aforementioned areas should see a
lessening of these conditions tonight with a little more mixing.

That said, there may be some patchy fog which redevelops holds
overnight through the knik valley.

Pressure and temperature gradients will increase across
southcentral tonight as cold air butts up against the interior
side of alaska range and copper river basin and flows through
gaps. Other than along the range, a noticeable increase in
outflow winds will be evident across the northern and western
gulf, including the eastern kenai peninsula overnight which should
continue through Saturday night.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
With high pressure settling in over the bering, dry, northerly
winds will dominate southwest alaska through the weekend. This
setup will pull down arctic air over the area dropping
temperatures to around -30 f for interior locations Saturday and
Sunday night. Winds look to be relatively light over the weekend
for low lying areas, but if they do pickup wind chills could
become a concern. However, there remains uncertainty with how
strong the winds will get.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
High pressure will dominate the bering through the weekend with
the eastern side pulling down cold air over the eastern bering and
aleutians. These winds look to be around small craft strength
which will be enough combined with the cold air to bring freezing
spray to much of the eastern bering. Out west, a north pacific
system will approach the western aleutians tonight but will be
stalled by the bering high. This will keep its front and any
precip associated with it over the central and western aleutians.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term begins Sunday night and Monday with a high
amplitude upper high over the bering sea and a trough to the east,
which includes a closed low in the gulf of alaska and another over
northern alaska. There is weak ridging in between the two lows
over southcentral. Strong northerly flow will be over the alaska
west coast and alaska peninsula. During the first half of next
week the gulf low will slide east, and the bering high will
weaken. This will allow the north alaska low to dive southward,
reaching southern alaska around the middle of next week. The exact
path and timing of this southward traversing low is not agreed
upon exactly by the models, but agreement is good enough for a
fairly high confidence forecast for this time range. The end
result of all of this is a fairly cold regime with temperatures
below normal over mainland southern alaska. Some precipitation is
possible through the period for the gulf coastal areas. There is a
chance some precipitation could get further inland, depending on
how the gulf low behaves, but confidence in this is low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 411 150 177 178 180 130.

Heavy freezing spray 160 180 181 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Bc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Bl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 82 mi59 min NNW 15 G 19 30°F 40°F1003.2 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Port Moller, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chignik, Chignik Airport, AK50 mi62 minWSW 8 G 1510.00 miOvercast30°F23°F75%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from AJC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW18
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SW14W16W9SW8SW10SW9SW11SW9SW7SW9SW6SW8SW9--SW12W8
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2 days agoSW17SW16W13--SW20
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Tide / Current Tables for Chiachi Island (east side), Alaska
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Chiachi Island (east side)
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Fri -- 03:57 AM AKST     6.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:35 AM AKST     3.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:08 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:20 PM AKST     8.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:43 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:57 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:14 PM AKST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.53.45.26.46.86.65.9543.43.445.16.47.68.28.17.15.63.61.60.1-0.6-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Kupreanof Harbor, Paul Island, Alaska
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Kupreanof Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:54 AM AKST     6.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:33 AM AKST     3.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:09 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:17 PM AKST     8.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:12 PM AKST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.63.55.36.56.86.65.94.943.43.445.16.57.68.28.17.15.53.51.60.1-0.6-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.