Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thorne Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 3:50AMSunset 10:10PM Sunday June 25, 2017 7:38 PM AKDT (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:22AMMoonset 10:48PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 320 Pm Akdt Sun Jun 25 2017
Tonight..Light winds becoming nw 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers early in the evening.
Mon..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue night..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NW wind 10 kt becoming se. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thorne Bay, AK
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location: 55.92, -132.37     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 252238
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
238 pm akdt Sun jun 25 2017

Short term Through Tue night... Relatively quiet short term
forecast for the panhandle. What is left of a weakening low
is slowly moving eastward through the SE gulf at the moment
spreading showers and clouds over most of the panhandle. The
exception is yakutat where offshore flow has caused them to
significantly lose their cloud cover. Winds are generally 15 kt or
less for most areas.

Three features of note for the short term. First is the weak low
in the SE gulf. That feature will be traversing over the southern
panhandle tonight with continued showers and clouds being the main
effect for the southern 2 3rds of the panhandle. Expected rainfall
will be low. The northern third of the panhandle can expect
improving conditions as offshore flow increases and the low pulls
away.

Second feature of note is the building ridge in the gulf behind
the weakening low. The ridge is looking to be somewhat flat in
nature initially so onshore flow from it will lead to showers
especially in and near the higher elevations of the panhandle
through Tue due to orthographic lifting. Kept at least chance
showers around the area as a result. Also, NW flow in the NE gulf
will lead to the formation of tip jets off the southern parts of
the st. Elias range and baranof island Mon evening. Winds at cross
sound and CAPE decision are likely to reach 25 or even 30 kt mon
evening as a result of this. The higher winds will likely last
into Tue morning before the general flow shifts to W or SW turning
off the tip jets. The ridge begins to sharpen up a bit more into
tue afternoon shutting off the showers.

Feature number three is several shortwaves that are pressing the
ridge against the panhandle on Tue night. The ridge over the
panhandle will keep the rain from these waves confined to the
northern gulf coast. Timing of these short waves is still up in
the air as the models are handling how far east the ridge over the
panhandle is differently. Decided to keep chance pops for the
northern gulf coast and gulf Tue night as a result.

Short range models in decent agreement at least until the short
waves start coming in from the west on Tue night. Decided to stick
with the NAM and GFS for any updates.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday... As of 900 pm sat...

period begins with upper ridge over SE pushing inland as an upper
trough approaches the W gulf. Models continue to struggle coming
to a consensus on the approaching trough. Although all are in fair
agreement with the main axis, the differences lie in the timing
and strength of the initial short waves ejecting out from the
parent trough and their associated frontal systems. 18z GFS was a
fast outlier while the 00z run has slowed slightly coming more in
line with ECMWF on eastward spread of precip with initial
perturbation heading into wed. Expect most of the panhandle to
begin Wed dry with precip chances expanding from the N gulf coast
early Wed into the entire panhandle late Wed into thu. Ensembles
continue to indicate fairly large spread with the evolution of
these waves. ECMWF has shown decent run to run consistency
leading to higher confidence in it's solution over gfs. Inherited
forecast represented this fairly well, but did have a longer dry
period to begin the long range. Increased pops sky cover and
lowered maxt slightly beyond Thu using ECMWF gem wpc guidance.

Given the high model spread continued trending forecast towards
wpc guidance with active weather continuing through next weekend.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-022-041>043.

Eal bc
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 19 mi89 min N 5.1 G 6 51°F 1014.2 hPa50°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 57 mi57 min ESE 6 G 7 54°F 54°F1016 hPa
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 94 mi77 min NW 4.1 G 6

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wrangell, AK39 mi49 minW 38.00 miLight Rain52°F50°F94%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4Calm--------SE4E3--W4CalmCalm--NW3--SW3W43CalmCalmNW3NW3W3
1 day agoCalmS4Calm--------------CalmE8W8CalmCalmNW4NW4E4E4NE8E6--E6E7
2 days agoSW6SW4SW4--------SE5----E4E4E4E4E4NW4NW4NW4NW6NW6W6NW3NW4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Dewey Anchorage, Etolin Island, Alaska
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Dewey Anchorage
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Sun -- 02:04 AM AKDT     19.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:04 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:23 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:36 AM AKDT     -4.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:03 PM AKDT     16.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:43 PM AKDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:47 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
14.617.919.218.214.89.63.8-1.2-4.1-4.4-2.12.17.21215.416.715.612.58.44.31.71.22.96.4

Tide / Current Tables for Olive Cove, Zimovia Strait, Alaska
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Olive Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:03 AM AKDT     19.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:21 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:36 AM AKDT     -4.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM AKDT     17.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:43 PM AKDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:48 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.118.519.818.715.29.94.1-1-4-4.3-22.47.612.51617.316.2138.74.51.81.33.16.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.